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高房价拉动了GDP,房地产行业还能繁荣多久?
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Topic: 高房价拉动了GDP,房地产行业还能繁荣多久? (Read 240 times)
healtheworld
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高房价拉动了GDP,房地产行业还能繁荣多久?
October 16, 2016, 01:32:50 PM
#1
根据媒体报道,2016 年前7个月全国总价超过10亿元的地块多达257宗,许多大中城市的房价也是一路猛涨。作为中国人最关心的事情之一,房价疯狂的走势对不少人而言成了生命难以承受之重。面对不断高升的房价,居民只得加大杠杆购房的力度,相应的,往年月均3000多亿的住房贷款规模也在今年上升到5000亿元左右。在央行最新发布的经济数据中,实体经济依然脆弱,企业投资的意愿大大下滑,唯有住户贷款一项异常坚挺。
如果说房价的初步上涨是因为供需失衡,那么后来的疯涨则有货币的作用。受困于制度管制,高储蓄率的中国人投资渠道较少,在有限的选择中房产成了较好的投资工具。2008年经济危机又带来4万亿的经济刺激计划,大量的资金流入房地产行业,此时房子已经不再是单纯的居住空间,更像是金融产品。高房价吸引了更多期待获得良好收益的资金流入,而大规模的投资又推动了房价的上升,形成一个上涨的循环。即便在地产市场有所降温的2014年,在全年社会固定资产投资中,仍有高达25.65%的资金流入房地产业,仅有32.62%的投资进入制造业。
房地产开发不仅对建筑、建材等行业有巨大的拉动效应,因为涉及土地买卖和相关税费征收,还能够为政府增加大量的财政收入,因此许多地方政府也乐见房地产业成为经济发展的强力引擎。根据国际货币基金组织的计算,中国房地产投资占GDP的比重从2003年的7.39%上升到2015年的14.18%,住宅投资占GDP的比重从4.93%上升到了9.55%,增长十分明显。然而这一上升的比例对中国的房地产市场来说并非好消息,和诸多发生过房地产周期波动的国家相比,中国住宅投资占GDP的比重已经处在非常危险的水平,日本上世纪房地产泡沫最严重时该比值的最高值也不过8.7%,而美国次贷危机期间该比值最高只有6.5%。
高房价拉动了GDP,房地产行业还能繁荣多久?
除了中日美三国,许多国家和地区都曾迎来房地产业的黄金年代。香港地区从1985年起进入房地产繁荣期,名义房地产价格在12年间增长了759%,高涨的房地产泡沫在1997年经济危机时被击破,经历了8年的回调期才逐渐恢复过来。相比之下,中国的房地产繁荣期已经从1994年延续到今天,持续时间超过了21年,名义房价累计涨幅达到383%,仅次于同在亚洲地区的韩国和香港。
为了刺激实体经济央行已经发行了大量的货币,但是7月份最新的经济数据表明即便货币政策再放宽松,也难对实体经济起作用。释放出的货币在实体经济回报率下降的情况下不是在躺在企业的账户里吃利息,就是流向了火热的房地产市场,推高房产的价格。但是收紧货币的话实体经济又会加速衰落,两难的情况下只能看着房地产行业的泡沫越堆越高。一旦泡沫破裂,经济恢复的时间只怕要向日本看齐了。
qyc0205
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Re: 高房价拉动了GDP,房地产行业还能繁荣多久?
October 17, 2016, 03:16:49 AM
#2
只要我党还活着 房地产就能一直繁荣下去
furst0101
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Re: 高房价拉动了GDP,房地产行业还能繁荣多久?
October 17, 2016, 11:58:55 AM
#3
什么时候倒我就什么时候贡献一份力
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