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Author Topic: MineDumpers + Continued pre-price dumping = Prices below $30 for next month+  (Read 2037 times)
niemivh
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June 13, 2011, 10:28:15 PM
 #1

It is my belief that many people that bought up during the run up to $30 will be looking to unload when the price hits what they paid for it to get out of what they consider a crazy market.  With that downward pressure you add many people that mine-->sell without ever retaining more than a few coins at a time.  Seems like these two forces will hold prices down below $30 for at least until the end of the month if not much longer.

Thoughts?

I'll keep my politics out of your economics if you keep your economics out of my politics.

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matsh
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June 14, 2011, 08:53:43 PM
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We get 50 new Bitcoins every 10 minutes, 300 per hour, 7200 per day. At current evaluation, this is ~130,000 USD worth of Bitcoins. If miners all sell their new coins, we would need an influx of that much money, every day. Which is a lot.

So, it is actually pretty amazing that we still keep up the current price.
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June 14, 2011, 09:00:36 PM
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I'm not so wild about your post title.

What is your point? Do you really have to articulate your market opinions in such a way as to sensationalize?

I mean, christ, how about "Think BTC is going stay below 30?".

Instead we get something that looks like FOX News wrote the summary. "Up Next - MINEDUMPERS and CONTINUED PRE-PRICE (whatever the hell that means) DUMPING ... STAY TUNED"

I'd love to read a post from you that wasn't a direct feed from your negative-pricing bile duct. Or at least something constructive enough that I could take you seriously. I believe that the market will fluctuate, and I don't believe that your artificial price 'ceiling' will hold.


fortitudinem multis - catenum regit omnia
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June 14, 2011, 09:05:18 PM
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I'm not so wild about your post title.

What is your point? Do you really have to articulate your market opinions in such a way as to sensationalize?

I mean, christ, how about "Think BTC is going stay below 30?".

Instead we get something that looks like FOX News wrote the summary. "Up Next - MINEDUMPERS and CONTINUED PRE-PRICE (whatever the hell that means) DUMPING ... STAY TUNED"

I'd love to read a post from you that wasn't a direct feed from your negative-pricing bile duct. Or at least something constructive enough that I could take you seriously. I believe that the market will fluctuate, and I don't believe that your artificial price 'ceiling' will hold.



It is sensational...OP knows its really PRICE....VINCENT PRICE. Ol' Vincent Price is actually Satoshi, and he's coming back for his creation.

Keep your eyes to the sky!
niemivh
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June 14, 2011, 11:29:18 PM
 #5

I'm not so wild about your post title.


I'm not either.  I have everything to lose by the price remaining low.  Just relaying what I think is an accurate prediction for the price, and so far I've been right.  Hopefully it goes up!

I'll keep my politics out of your economics if you keep your economics out of my politics.

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June 14, 2011, 11:36:25 PM
 #6

We get 50 new Bitcoins every 10 minutes, 300 per hour, 7200 per day. At current evaluation, this is ~130,000 USD worth of Bitcoins. If miners all sell their new coins, we would need an influx of that much money, every day. Which is a lot.

So, it is actually pretty amazing that we still keep up the current price.


+1 Insightful...

(Side note: The slashdot modding system is really quite good isn't it?)
imperi
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June 14, 2011, 11:38:14 PM
 #7

This is a very great point, one that I've considered myself. However, if most of these miners see a future value in Bitcoins, they will tend to sell less. So the price is less likely to drop as long as most miners see a positive outlook.
niemivh
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June 14, 2011, 11:47:59 PM
 #8

This is a very great point, one that I've considered myself. However, if most of these miners see a future value in Bitcoins, they will tend to sell less. So the price is less likely to drop as long as most miners see a positive outlook.

I'm currently at a loss if I sell or use my BTC, although a longer spell of price stability would be good for the Bitcoin economy so I'm all for it.

=]

I'll keep my politics out of your economics if you keep your economics out of my politics.

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Horkabork
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June 15, 2011, 12:12:41 AM
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I thought the same thing when I was new, which is, "OH Jehovah! Miners are starting to dump their bitcoins!" But then, upon investigating chart data further, I realized that people have been dumping large amounts of bitcoins at once for a very long time. In fact, all throughout bitcoin's meteoric rise, there are major dump events. Usually, they just spike the market down and it recovers quickly. In march, I believe, there was a massive sell-off from one guy, and people wrote afterwords about how remarkable it was that the market recovered.

Right now, sure, there are some big swinging dicks selling, but there's also a correction going on. The major sell-off "depression" event that I've seen written about in the media was prompted by a few big sell-offs, but it only took hold this one time out of hundreds because the masses seemed to think that bitcoin was overvalued. So when they saw big sellers running for the hills, they joined in.

In other words, you don't sell-off if you think that the market will recover soon to current levels. You only join in a sell off if you either think that you can buy back in at a lower position before it comes back up, or to keep from losing your hat while the market corrects. Most everyone was firmly in the latter category.

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imperi
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June 15, 2011, 12:13:46 AM
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Miners seem to dump when the price is rising *too fast* rather than the slow, methodical, monthly doubling.  Grin
jhansen858
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June 15, 2011, 12:22:10 AM
 #11

Just wait till next week when the difficulty doubles.  I'm sure you will get your price going up at that time.  Coins are getting put in faster then what was intended right now because the difficulty is too low for how many new miners have set up shop in the last month.

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June 15, 2011, 12:27:58 AM
 #12

This is a very great point, one that I've considered myself. However, if most of these miners see a future value in Bitcoins, they will tend to sell less. So the price is less likely to drop as long as most miners see a positive outlook.

I'm currently at a loss if I sell or use my BTC, although a longer spell of price stability would be good for the Bitcoin economy so I'm all for it.

=]

At a loss if you sell at $20/BTC? How efficient is your mining operation or did you buy when it was high?

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done
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June 15, 2011, 12:33:13 AM
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I think you may be underestimating the buy and hold crowd
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June 15, 2011, 01:10:37 AM
 #14

We get 50 new Bitcoins every 10 minutes, 300 per hour, 7200 per day. At current evaluation, this is ~130,000 USD worth of Bitcoins. If miners all sell their new coins, we would need an influx of that much money, every day. Which is a lot.

So, it is actually pretty amazing that we still keep up the current price.

I think only a small portion of mined coins are sold instantly.  People who are mining with a single card looking for some quick cash may sell instantly, but they make up a small portion of the overall hashing power.  Bigger miners are more likely to be invested in bitcoin for the long term.

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jhansen858
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June 15, 2011, 01:35:44 AM
 #15

I personally have ~1.6 Mh/s so thats about 2 bit coins a day at current difficulty.. 

I have been selling 1 and keeping 1...


Overall it makes the most sense for me to keep about half dollars / half bitcoins in my account, if the price takes a sudden drop, I can jump in and buy up cheap coins, other wise I'm just generating them and selling half of my earnings as $$ and slowly accumulating coins.

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imperi
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June 15, 2011, 01:40:59 AM
 #16

I personally have ~1.6 Mh/s so thats about 2 bit coins a day at current difficulty.. 

I have been selling 1 and keeping 1...


Overall it makes the most sense for me to keep about half dollars / half bitcoins in my account, if the price takes a sudden drop, I can jump in and buy up cheap coins, other wise I'm just generating them and selling half of my earnings as $$ and slowly accumulating coins.

1.6Gh/s?
jhansen858
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June 15, 2011, 01:46:53 AM
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yea

oops typo

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June 15, 2011, 02:00:01 AM
 #18

Just wait till next week when the difficulty doubles.  I'm sure you will get your price going up at that time.  Coins are getting put in faster then what was intended right now because the difficulty is too low for how many new miners have set up shop in the last month.

Difficulty goes up in less than a day. Bottom goes up and ceiling goes down. I've seen this pattern predictably.

Proposal: http://forum.bitcoin.org/index.php?topic=11541.msg162881#msg162881
Inception: https://github.com/bitcoin/bitcoin/issues/296
Goal: http://forum.bitcoin.org/index.php?topic=12536.0
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