WTF is a bubble anyway?

[thefiniteidea]

Is it this?



Or this?



Maybe this?



Possibly this?



Could it be this?








I'm unsure about all of those...

Though, I've heard these are definitely bubbles:








And this:



Also, this:



Here's another good one:



Of course:






So what's the difference?

I suppose, after analyzing the data, that a bubble is anything that goes up very quickly, and back down again just as quick.

Apparently, if it does not go back down, it is not a bubble!


So let me ask all of you something....


Who is to say that Bitcoin will ever go down?


As far as I'm concerned, this is the one I think we all believe is becoming worthless:





Not these:










Perhaps the keyword here is believe



Sure, your house many not have been worth a million dollars during the housing bubble, and you probably knew that....


But if you believe Bitcoin is actually worth even 5% of the currency markets, why should it be a bubble when it needs to increase to a million per before SLOWING DOWN?



This is just the start.



Fundamentally, I believe that Bitcoin is an incredible technology with novel properties that the world will want and is beginning to realize/use.

You can keep US dollars at your own risk, just like Cypriots kept their Euros.

I will keep my bitcoins, thank you very much.

[Mike Christ]

Good stuff! 

From what I've gathered by proliferating this forum, you only know it's a bubble after the fact.  But anyone who knows what Bitcoin is and what it can do to change the world should be holding on for dear life.

[bitarrow]

This post looks like those annoying chain emails i get

[BitcoinTate]

Amen! Good post!

[Piper67]

Yes, pretty much my feelings, minus the large bold text.

June 2011 was NOT a bubble. Even after the drop, Bitcoins were trading for more than four times the price they were in January of that year.

Charts mean nothing without a good understanding of scale and potential, two things for which you require imagination. To keep calling Bitcoin a bubble is a failure of the imagination, nothing else.

[thefiniteidea]

lol sorry for the bold text I'm a little drunk hahaha

[sgbett]

EARTH HAS 4 CORNER
SIMULTANEOUS 4-DAY
TIME CUBE
WITHIN SINGLE ROTATION.
 4 CORNER DAYS PROVES 1
DAY 1 GOD IS TAUGHT EVIL.

[molecular]

Anything measured in fiat-currency is in a bubble.

[molecular]

lol sorry for the bold text I'm a little drunk hahaha

lol, me too. just also posted bold text.

[XXthetimeisnowXX]

lol sorry for the bold text I'm a little drunk hahaha

actually I thought it was just fine. the bold text conveyed your passion for bitcoins and the possibility of it.

[bitarrow]

lol sorry for the bold text I'm a little drunk hahaha

im jealous

[David M]

I have never seen two bubbles form on any stock or commodity in the time frame of Bitcoin existence.

I still reckon the first run up to $31 was exaggerated price discovery.

IMO, this run is a boom not a bubble.

[grantbdev]

Every time word "bubble" is mentioned on this forum the bust is postponed by one day. In other words it simply cannot be bubble when everyone is saying that it is a bubble.

That's what I keep telling my friend who is convinced of a Bitcoin bubble yet he plans to buy cheap BTC after a crash...There won't be a real crash as long as there are people like that.

[mestar]

Who is to say that Bitcoin will ever go down?

I'll say it. For the bitcoin has built in link between the price and the downward pressure on the price.

Currently, ($115) miners create around $400.000 daily in new bitcoin, and when the ASIC sellers get their production in order, a large percentage of that money will be sold on the exchanges every day.  This means that you would need $200k to $300k every day, just to prop up the bitcoin price.

That's about double what Bitpay, the largest processor does each day. 

So, for each $1 in Bitpay volume (not profit), you need $2 to $3 in "sucker" money.  Sure, the price will come down.

[oOoOo]

lol sorry for the bold text I'm a little drunk hahaha

Although I totally wish you to be right, this sounds a lot like "this time it's different" and "permanent high plateau" talk - like those you hear at the peak...

[bitarrow]

Who is to say that Bitcoin will ever go down?

I'll say it. For the bitcoin has built in link between the price and the downward pressure on the price.

Currently, ($115) miners create around $400.000 daily in new bitcoin, and when the ASIC sellers get their production in order, a large percentage of that money will be sold on the exchanges every day.  This means that you would need $200k to $300k every day, just to prop up the bitcoin price.

That's about double what Bitpay, the largest processor does each day. 

So, for each $1 in Bitpay volume (not profit), you need $2 to $3 in "sucker" money.  Sure, the price will come down.

Why do you think ASIC miners wont hold coin? same amount of coin generated per day regardless of ASIC or NOT.  I dont see hardware changing anything.
I have 2 minirigs on order and I still plan on holding a majority of btc. Many are like me also.

[yokosan]

The South Sea Company one is fucking insane considering its on log scale...

[The-Real-Link]

Great enthusiastic post .

Nice charts.

Oh and who's to say that Bitpay is the only merchant doing business?  There are many!

[lophie]

Thank you. I am pretty much suffering of bad vision. You saved me from the usual ctrl++!

oh and nice thread too 

[mestar]

Mining awards come in BTC, electric bills come in local currency.   Once the music stops:

http://bitcoincharts.com/charts/mtgoxUSD#rg90zigDailyzczsg2011-06-04zeg2011-12-31ztgSzm1g10zm2g25zi1gVolzvzcv