Hello,
New user but long time lurker. I decided to sign up because I cringe every time I see people who don't know the difference between speculation and actual Bitcoin usage and purchasing power. I was super bullish on Bitcoin at $8 and started buying in until it got above $14. I'm very very happy today selling my first batch at $103 however, I've seen things that aren't being published in the Economics-speculation section. I do believe the price will continue to rise but I'd be shocked if we don't go over a cliff within the next 1-2 months.
1.) The volume charts show an increase but nothing like you would expect if trading is from Silk road or buying Pizza's. Look at a year, then 3 months, then 6 months. Notice the price rose at a fairly steady climb until Mar 17th (They day Cyprus news struck). Then a skyrocket to $100+. This is without any doubt a signal of speculation, unless you think 10x as many people started buy drugs on Silk Road in the past 2 weeks.
2.) Once I'm not a noob here I'll post links and facts but I have seen many signals that people in Spain are moving money to Bitcoin as they worry they are next Cyprus. Once this cools we should start seeing prices level off. This is the best case scenario. A lot of us are watching and even a level off of more than a week might send people into panic.
3.) Bubbles are when something such as Bitcoin are traded mostly on speculation. The bigger they grow the faster they fall. Once a large chunk of people start to sell off the avalanche is very predictable. I made tons of money on crashes in the 1990s, saw the dot com bubble coming in early 1997 as a day trader. Saw house prices in California dropping like a rock and have made money on real estate in Austin as I predicted growth in areas. I saw the bank failure coming way ahead of time. I saw the crash in 2008 coming and made some good money. I said the economy was showing signs of picking up over 8 months ago and am just now seeing the news catch up a bit. I know it is easy to lie on the Internet but this is all true and was easy to see backed with facts. What amazed me is how so many just couldn't believe it and I'm seeing that behavior now on these forums.
I'm bullish on Bitcoin and the climb to $50 was probably sustainable. Unfortunately I think the recent massive speculation is setting up a bubble and I think it is clear as glass. You don't need fancy theories like stochastics etc. Anyone with a little knowledge can look close at the volume spikes and see speculation.
I'm not posting this to scare people to drive to price down as I'm very confident there will be a huge drop at some point anyway. I just hate to see people so convinced in something that is a risk. I got my 401K out of the market in 2007 and watched friends lose life savings. I saw my grandma spend $900 (and thousands more) on a beanie baby probably worth pennies now. Once I'm out of noob mode I'll try to stick to facts and ask serious questions. So far I have not seen one super bullish person on this board post any valid evidence this is not a bubble. I hope it goes to $1000 though cause I'll cash out and retire at that point for sure.
Oh and just to prove I'm not totally negative I see the news about Bitcoin ATM's and Western accepting it a huge positive. However, neither has happened or is a sure thing at this point. I think before these get implement there will be a nice big dip and I'll be buying up all I can. I hope once reality sets in more people will listen to those far better with mathematics and charts on economics than I am and sanity will return. Then we can work together to accurately ride the waves and continue make more BTC.
I think a lot of people are bulls because they don't understand
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Efficient-market_hypothesis and how we were so lied to during the 80s and 90s (I never believed in EMT and am still in shock the mainstream did). With EMT bubbles could never exist. Anyway I think so many people are programmed by retirement plan crap they couldn't see a bubble if you wrapped them in bubble wrap.
