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Author Topic: $BTC Needing More of an Indicator Correction...  (Read 464 times)
S3052
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October 19, 2016, 02:24:34 PM
 #1

BBA Market Commentary (BTC):

Indeed we could see the process of resetting the indicators commence yesterday on the 6-hour chart, however that still leaves the 12-hour and daily charts left that need to sync up with the now favorable shorter term charts. This could materialize in one of two ways in our opinion: 1.)  The market stays stagnant in the 630 - 640 $ range while all timeframes align on oversold conditions, or 2.) we take a jaunt to the downside to test the 600 $ area to truly reset momentum and washout weak hands.

Today we are taking a look at the 12-hour chart below, which we mentioned already in terms of needing more of an indicator correction than what has occurred so far.  Notice that what was fairly bullish near term market structure yesterday has morphed into bearish market structure today on this timeframe, not to mention the fact that volume profile remains porous between 600 and 625 $ and total exchange volumes are relatively swift and bearish.  Also, the near term EMA's are about to cross over to the downside while the 200-period SMA continues to flatline, both of which tell us that conviction is low on either side of the market.

Moving on to the more bullish indications, we can see that there is still a working near term uptrend line now sitting around 625 $ that is being tested.  Additionally, RSI is already almost back to the 50-line, Willy is finally coming down out of officially overbought territory, PPO has gone from flashing major sell signals to minor ones, and MACD remains pinned near the zeroline.  Lastly, if the do bears to begin to get their claws in the market to take it lower there is a significant confluence area in the aforementioned 595 - 615 $ range consisting of strong SCMR support, the 200-period SMA, volume profile PoC, as well as the top of the pivot area and near term OTE long zone, all of which signal that buyers should emerge around there.

All things considered, we now think that a (shallow and buyable) dip down into support prior to a breakout over the 642 $ local high is the slightly more likely scenario for the time being.


GLGT!


bullbearanalytics.com


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October 26, 2016, 02:20:30 AM
 #2

Thanks for the analysis. It is always good to see other people's analysis to keep your own in check. It helps you from being carried away by the mania of a bull run.

I mostly disagree with that analysis because it attempts to anticipate what the next of Bitcoin would be thru indicators and by basing them on what has happened in the past. The markets are known to be unpredictable by nature because it is comprised of a lot of individual human minds that are often irrational. If we knew what all the people were thinking at the same time then it would be possible to predict what would happen. But that is not the case.


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October 27, 2016, 12:40:06 PM
 #3

Thanks for the analysis. It is always good to see other people's analysis to keep your own in check. It helps you from being carried away by the mania of a bull run.

I mostly disagree with that analysis because it attempts to anticipate what the next of Bitcoin would be thru indicators and by basing them on what has happened in the past. The markets are known to be unpredictable by nature because it is comprised of a lot of individual human minds that are often irrational. If we knew what all the people were thinking at the same time then it would be possible to predict what would happen. But that is not the case.


You don't need to know what everyone is thinking. You only need to know what the correct ones and the money is thinking. Indicators rise when most action is buying action, and fall when it's mostly selling. The real problem with indicators is that they lag the price, meaning it only turns after the price extreme, but it makes for safer trading than picking an arbitrary buying/selling point. Past data is all we have, so finding trends is not impossible, and actually can be profitable when you know how to use the indicators you are looking at.

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