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Author Topic: Perpetual Skeptic changes his mind, We're Going to the Moon - This was my day  (Read 1181 times)
mindtomatter
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April 03, 2013, 07:19:12 AM
 #1

Okay, I’ve had a few beers and I’m sold - No corrections required, Bitcoin could go to $10,000/ea without a reasonable pullback.

The thing is, the supply and demand dynamic is horribly out of balance. The incoming rate of supply now being steady as it always is at around 25 new bitcoins added every 10 minutes, but the amount of money chasing those few new coins is much larger now than it was three months ago, so the price goes through the roof.

I wonder what % of new bitcoins are sold on the market compared to how many are saved for the increasing value. The more of this that happens, the more exacerbated the supply/demand imbalance becomes.

And that imbalance causes the price to go up.  Dramatically.

Increasing value in a stagnant investing climate draws attention from the media and “everyday joe” attention, investment interest, this adds even MORE demand.  Again, the supply does not increase.

The whole thing becomes a self reinforcing cycle that I would argue is past the tipping point - I’m now spending quite a bit of time explaining to completely brand new people how to use their first wallet.

 With Bitinstant.com it’s easy to tell people how to buy bitcoins, the last time the price spiked that was just not true and it was a royal pain in the ass to buy in.  My experience involved two weeks, two payment processors and a bank, a bank error in my favor which I voluntarily corrected and then a three day delay for no apparent reason before the funds were made available in Mt.Gox, during which time the price spiked about 40%
Now the user experience is walking to the walmart and handing over cash, getting bitcoins in their emails.

We've designed an embeddable HTML widget that lets any content producer ask their audience for support, and display how much has been given as well as link to the "what is bitcoin" video
bitcointipper.appspot.com

So what all that leads me to, is people are having a good experiences with this, and we're created something that lets them monetize content that has never been productive besides advertisements.  Now users can contribute .01btc to a video or article they enjoyed, and if 100 readers do that, that video has earned nearly $140 USD, and it can keep earning as long as people find it on the web and find it entertaining.

So.... What all this brings me to, I can't play the bear any more.  I think we're going to the moon and I'm sick as can be that I haven't the financials to invest more than I already have.  I have no idea how long this rally will last, but it will be unlike anything  we've ever seen.   The one pitfall to avoid is major hacking events, which are definitely baked in this cake the higher we go.  We saw a flurry of criminal activity and viruses during the last spike, we're going to have a major issue in the near future at these values.

If something fundamentally goes wrong, and a lot of people feel like their money is trapped (as in a Mt. Gox issue) than things could get hinky, but not too bad.

Another potential disruption is attempted government regulation.  The currency might hiccup and stall if the US Government drags volunteer devs before congressional hearings, any talk of ban will cause a panic for the exits as new holders don't want to be stuck with perceived illegal currency.

But even that is a short term setback, the market will shrink dramatically but it will settle and stabilize.  The idea is too good to go away regardless of what laws demand, so barring the closure of the internet I think we're safe from a continuity of service perspective.

So the upside is a continuation of the trend - Higher prices feeding good news coverage feeding increased interest feeding new acceptance announcements in a virtuous cycle lifting the price up until we run out of dollars with owners who want bitcoins instead.

So there it is, we're in the middle of a revaluation.  AND I SOLD HALF MY BITCOINS AT 35 FOR AMAZON GIFT CARDS
1tYWRtTku81D5G2owQtknQnUJh6JZvF3K

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April 03, 2013, 07:30:33 AM
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You mean BitInstant, mot BitPay. Had too many beers? Smiley

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mindtomatter
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April 03, 2013, 07:33:14 AM
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Let's go with yes, either way mistake corrected - Thanks for the note.

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April 03, 2013, 07:51:10 AM
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Another potential disruption is attempted government regulation.  The currency might hiccup and stall if the US Government drags volunteer devs before congressional hearings, any talk of ban will cause a panic for the exits as new holders don't want to be stuck with perceived illegal currency.

I would actually welcome this right now because:

1) regulation would fail (already endlessly discussed)
2)it would slow the rise (seen as a bubble)
3) add to the stability of btc longer term

reg.
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April 03, 2013, 09:04:03 AM
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10 minute lag at mtgox.  Roll Eyes

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April 03, 2013, 09:06:04 AM
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you are right there we are at the new paradigm of money, the biggest shift of power of money this world has ever won

a price of 100$ is nothing for the value and reason this thing called Bitcoin will bring to the people of the earth
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April 03, 2013, 09:11:30 AM
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I feel like I'm on a cult forum. Cheesy
mindtomatter
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April 03, 2013, 09:32:09 AM
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I feel like I'm on a cult forum. Cheesy

So tell me where my analysis is wrong - It's not cult, it's just supply and demand

Bitcoin has no mechanism to cope with a sudden increase in demand except by going up in price.  If world currencies or those risk vehicles we know as "bank accounts" were doing a good job of being money, a case could be made that eventually people will not want bitcoins and the price will stop going up - I do not think that is a realistic assumption.

So I'm looking for a fringe event to disrupt the feedback loop thats gotten going.  Government intervention or a major hacking that gums up the system, or an event that locks up the Mt. Gox system

I await your analysis

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April 03, 2013, 09:39:25 AM
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I'm not sure why I'm going to bother... I'll just get labeled "a bear" by the March '13 trolls.

I wasn't referring to your post specifically, but to address your point regarding demand. I do agree there is an increase in demand, but I believe it's entirely for the wrong reasons.

The demand is to get in to flip some cash and take profits. Some people will hold and wish for the best, most will fold under the pressure because in reality, they can't spend it anywhere.

This is my opinion. I love the idea of bitcoin, but I hate how it can magnify the emotional flaws and irrationality in humans.

I don't even want to send payment to my hosting service because I'm overpaying. I'm sure he would prefer not to accept it because it might lose value as fast as it gained value.

This instability is not because of adoption, it's because of speculation.

When speculative money dries up, so will the valuation.
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April 03, 2013, 10:16:22 AM
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I say that without prior speculation there can be no widespread adoption. Potential gains from an increase in value serve as an incentive for people to speculate and taking the risk of handling something, which has not yet earned a significant track record for stability. I think if/when it has been established in the minds of many people that Bitcoin value expressed in fiat fluctuates but generally tends to appreciate, accepting bitcoins for products/services/work will start to seem prudent instead of a risky speculation. That being said at this point in time it seems to me that the price of BTC is subject to big fluctuations due to speculation. The more unique individuals adopt Bitcoin and the more spread out it is, the lower the volatility will become I assume.

And I like the idea of governments trying their luck with outlawing/regulating BTC right now so they can (presumably) fail and give Bitcoin another boost in credibility. Meanwhile it will drive out panicking weak hands and allow me to accumulate some more cheap coins in exchange for fiat, muhehe  Grin

It's all bullshit. But bullshit makes the flowers grow and that's beautiful.
flaab
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April 03, 2013, 10:37:15 AM
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I sold at 29 and 48. I have very few left :-(
carborundum
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April 03, 2013, 10:39:44 AM
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I sold at 29 and 48. I have very few left :-(

Sorry to hear that buddy, I can imagine your pain Sad
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April 03, 2013, 11:29:02 AM
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I have a feeling that bitcoin will make 1000% rise from now even before the congress starts speaking about this. And it will be already late. And when they starts speaking about bitcoin they will make an advertisement for it. (I do not live in USA.)
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April 03, 2013, 12:34:12 PM
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I sold at 29 and 48. I have very few left :-(

Sorry to hear that buddy, I can imagine your pain Sad

a moment of silence for our brother flaab
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April 03, 2013, 12:35:50 PM
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I feel like I'm on a cult forum. Cheesy

Here's the difference, you don't need to be in it. Please, sell us your coins, get out of BTC altogether. If this is a cult, the further away you are from it, the better, sell sell sell.

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