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Author Topic: IDEAS HOW WE CAN ACCURATELY PREDICT BITCOIN VALUE CHANGES BEFORE THEY OCCUR  (Read 337 times)
4325tgdfdfg
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April 03, 2013, 08:27:00 AM
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I decided to buy $1500 worth of bitcoin since it was lower than 90 only a few days ago. Opening a account to deposit with the bitcoin exchange has lasted a few days for them to check docs and payment to get there. As it write it has risen to $115, In less than a week I would have made $800. I'm pissed I used a depsoit method that takes 4-5 days.

Should I invest right now, what are the possible factors that could case hyper-deflation, what are the fundamentals and events could cause further massive gains, and how probable are these events going to be, so we can cashout before if/when it dropped back to the lows of last year, sometimes $4-5 a coin, ahead of the market selling at its highest point. Comparable to how 300 companies are now known to have sent sums from $5 million to $25mil out of their Cyprus accounts before the banks decided to steal from them.

Personally I think it is likely to hold because it has its trump card USP since it is the most anonymous way to send money in the world and has a limited number of coins (21 million) so it can't be devalued by central bank Quantitative easing and are the're infinitely divisible.

If they go fully mainstream and become widely accepted, is it possible they could rise to coins being worth thousands each?

The total value of bitcoins existing today has a market capitalisation of only circa $1 billion dollars, thousands of times smaller than the average Fiat currency in volume, and most other commodities like precious metals. If it becomes mainstream isn't it plausible that bitcoin's volume would catch up to them?

It's possible because there aren't any limits to how much fiat currency can be added to the bitcoin network, plus the infinite divisibility. If the volume catches up to the others that mean there are still many thousands of percent rises in bitcoins value to go.

Is it true that Western Union is planning to accept bitcoin for transfers. An article about bitcoins was viewed by millions on the front page of the guardian newspaper site recently. The impact of Western Union's actions could well massively increase it, if it keeps reaching a larger audience from continued widespread media coverage as well the combined impact could achieve mainstream usage worldwide.

What else can people think of that could trigger large value fluctuations, both increases and decreases.

If all the experts registered here all brought their specialised knowledge of different variables and worked together by discussing the likelehood of the things that could affect it, maybe it is possible to predict the value swings before they happen with a good level of accuracy.



On the downside how many years roughly will it be before computers are powerful enough to break the current highest encryption standards the currency depends on to function, rendering it worthless?

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wopwop
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April 03, 2013, 08:28:38 AM
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that was yesterday

bitcoin is going to 10.000 $ per coin whether you like it or not
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April 03, 2013, 08:29:42 AM
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Yeah and its going there today!    Grin
4325tgdfdfg
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April 03, 2013, 08:31:56 AM
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Do you have any other info / reasons for thinking that, and how fast do you think it will take?

that was yesterday

bitcoin is going to 10.000 $ per coin whether you like it or not
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April 03, 2013, 08:45:35 AM
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Sorry for repost, if moderators can, please delete my main thread, merging discussion with this one.


BTC is experiencing exponential growth.

PLUS: we can keep them & profit
MINUS: the risk is growing


Risk enlarging factors:

1. More "newbie" investors attracted - without understanding of the currency, without knowledge about its uses. They buy BTC as long as it grows, they sell BTC when it falls.

2. "Big game" attention attraction. Banks, news corps, hedge funds & large market sharks are attracted. Many $1M USD trades occuring now.

3. The hype - BTC is a hot topic in media, it's like a life sustain drip. When it's cut off, it's gonna fall.



Potential risks:

A. Bogus news, e.g. "A team of M.I.T researchers published a paper, in which they claim, the Bitcoin protocol has been compromised." Even if it's bogus & draws international attention (it surely would sometime soon when most news-vultures know about BTC), it would make the price plummet.

B. DDOS attacks - for around $120 anyone can rent a gigabit botnet, down the most popular BTC marketplaces/exchanges. This already HAD and still WOULD make the price plummet.

C. Exponential growth - many startups experienced this, it usually takes several days of exp userbase growth until a site is overloaded. Most sites operate withing 10-20% of their potential. MtGox operates within 80% of their potential (my guess based on lags). This would be even worse than a DDOS - it wouldn't end. It would need severe IT architecture redesign. This would last & cause the price to plummet.

D. Probably many more - feel free to add in your thoughts.



IMHO the situation becomes very unsafe - it would be better for a small crash to happen now, than a MAJOR CRASH to happen around $350. The latter could totally discredit BTC in the eyes of the newbie public. A small crash would be a warning sign - that BTC needs some time to develop infrastructure & long term trust.

What are your thoughts?
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