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April 04, 2013, 10:57:24 AM |
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When I made this thread it was not to talk about long term bitcoin valuation. THAT is impossible.
As you all said, there is no reference point, no fixing, bitcoin is worth only what people are willing to pay for it. And that's enough.
There are many risks involved in the long term future - even criminalization of BTC usage and death sentences for using - we can speculate about such things, but that's pointless (while being fun =D)
Nonetheless we can still estimate the short term risks - in the current situation, which stands like this:
* media is getting hot on BTC (slowly yet)
* banks/brokers are getting questions about BTC drawing their attention
* BTC market value around $1.000.000.000 is very small. Using leverage even a small company could buy the whole BTC supply (theoretically). Practically it's impossible due to hoarders.. BUT you don't have to buy them all to make the price shake. When you trade for $50M that's enough. $50M is what, 50 lots (in forex terminology). Many individual FX clients do indeed trade in such nominals on daily basis.
Please do remember that Bitcoin disables government's immortal idea of "getting funds from nowhere" when they need them.
Like: gold confiscation, printing money, taxing everything. If you're interested in economic history, check out what had governments done in times of need (war).
This & this alone can pose a threat so serious to the governments & banks, that they might set on a mission to discredit & destroy BTC.
They fear what they don't understand. They fear what they can't control. They might try to control BTC, they will fail, they will try to destroy it then.
It's just my opinion, but regarding #Cyprus - it seems that the Governors Of The World are stupid, dumb and relentless.
That's kind of an OffTopic - because there's not enough global attention on BTC. The current threats are small-scale. Like DDOS, like fake publications, like Twitter panic, etc.
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