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Poll
Question: What should be the correct outcome of the bet be?
Correct bet outcome is True - BFL failed to ship before April - 155 (84.7%)
Correct bet outcome is False - BFL shipped before April - 8 (4.4%)
Correct bet outcome is Draw - 20 (10.9%)
Total Voters: 183

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Author Topic: Poll:Did Bets of Bitcoin correctly decide "BFL will not ship ASIC before April"?  (Read 5635 times)
Bogart
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April 03, 2013, 12:19:56 PM
 #1

Did Bets of Bitcoin decide this bet correctly?  What should the outcome have been?

http://betsofbitco.in/item?id=701

Bets of Bitcoin feedback solicitation announcement: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=163261.msg1719574#msg1719574

Bets of Bitcoin decision announcement: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=163261.msg1726858#msg1726858

Scam accusation thread: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=165500.0

"True" means that BFL failed to ship before April.

"False" means that BFL shipped before April.

"All safe deposit boxes in banks or financial institutions have been sealed... and may only be opened in the presence of an agent of the I.R.S." - President F.D. Roosevelt, 1933
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Nancarrow
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April 03, 2013, 12:33:49 PM
 #2

Is there no way we can see who voted for which option? It would be instructive. FWIW notwithstanding my repeated attempts to stick up for BoB, I've voted that the bet should have been ruled 'True'.

If I've said anything amusing and/or informative and you're feeling generous:
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April 03, 2013, 12:36:51 PM
 #3

The Title and poll are at odds. (True/False) is an unclear choice.

Did Bets of Bitcoin correctly decide = FALSE

"BFL will not ship ASIC before April"? = TRUE


and the OP can switch these around to set the final result the way he wants by editing the post.

Quote
"True" means that BFL failed to ship before April.

"False" means that BFL shipped before April.

Bogart
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April 03, 2013, 12:45:30 PM
 #4

The Title and poll are at odds. (True/False) is an unclear choice.

Did Bets of Bitcoin correctly decide = FALSE

"BFL will not ship ASIC before April"? = TRUE


and the OP can switch these around to set the final result the way he wants by editing the post.

Quote
"True" means that BFL failed to ship before April.

"False" means that BFL shipped before April.

Good point.

I've revised the poll options to try to make it more clear.

"All safe deposit boxes in banks or financial institutions have been sealed... and may only be opened in the presence of an agent of the I.R.S." - President F.D. Roosevelt, 1933
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April 03, 2013, 01:54:56 PM
 #5

When placing bets for money rather than mere fun, I would like people to be especially careful about the conditions they formulate. There is a fine but very real difference between "yes", "no" and "syntax error".

In this case, the title of the bet and the content of the bet resolve to different outcomes. No instructions, knowable to participants at the time of placing their bets, have been provided regarding what should be done in this case.

This leaves room for creative interpretation, which in my opinion, should disqualify the bet itself. I think "draw" is a reasonable decision, just like "when in doubt, do no harm" is a reasonable principle.

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April 03, 2013, 02:00:54 PM
 #6

BS ....


Let's not play semantics. It didn't ship, they failed to ship 3 units as specified on their website, the post for the "shipment" was made past the deadline, the person receiving the unit is literally "working" with BFL... so many fucking layers to this pile of shit wrapped up in a bet can we count.

If I were to shake on the bet and someone came back and started welching this hard I'd never make another bet with them. Lesson learned BFL and Luke Jr... no integrity. If you are not pulling your orders you are not paying attention.

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April 03, 2013, 02:05:06 PM
 #7

In this case, the title of the bet and the content of the bet resolve to different outcomes. No instructions, knowable to participants at the time of placing their bets, have been provided regarding what should be done in this case.

Actually both the bet title and the bet content each separately result in a "True" bet outcome, IMO.


When placing bets for money rather than mere fun, I would like people to be especially careful about the conditions they formulate. There is a fine but very real difference between "yes", "no" and "syntax error".

...

This leaves room for creative interpretation, which in my opinion, should disqualify the bet itself. I think "draw" is a reasonable decision, just like "when in doubt, do no harm" is a reasonable principle.

Bets of Bitcoin has to approve the statement before allowing bets to be placed, and they have an opportunity to revise the statement, or to reject it outright.  They chose to approved the statement as it is and to accept bets on it.

"All safe deposit boxes in banks or financial institutions have been sealed... and may only be opened in the presence of an agent of the I.R.S." - President F.D. Roosevelt, 1933
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April 03, 2013, 02:09:01 PM
 #8

True bfl didn't ship shit .....

Weasel tag for bob and associates should be applied here right now!

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April 03, 2013, 03:21:05 PM
 #9

Where in the conditions did it say anything about shipping?  The title is not listed as one of the conditions.

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April 03, 2013, 03:28:06 PM
 #10

Where in the conditions did it say anything about shipping?  The title is not listed as one of the conditions.

That "title" is the actual bet. It is also confirmed by BoB that the title is important to all other bets. They just selectively ignored it for this bet because it wasn't the outcome they needed.

Neither listed condition was met either. It's a fail all around.

Buy & Hold
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April 03, 2013, 04:05:54 PM
 #11

After following this all closely I now don't see how anyone could consider this bet won at all.  (Earlier I said perhaps).

Two basic things:

1) They did not ship.
Shipping means = stuff was transported in the mail. this did not happen.

2) Luke's unit is a prototype. It is not the final product.
They are '2 weeks' away from a final product  Wink
The bet referred to final products shipping. Not prototype/dev boards shipping.

Ok strike'd out point 2, as I didn't realize the bet just referred to a 'ASIC unit' not the final product.

But you could easily argue Luke could be considered an employee, because he is getting early access to hardware in exchange for assistance.

...just the fact alone that BFL would go to that much trouble to fake fulfilling the bet is also a huge red flag for the company. Would it not be much more lucrative to work on getting the units going? Oh ya. I guess not. Because they already have tons of money.

Really, honestly I feel for all BFL pre-orders makers. They have every right to be totally livid right now.  
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April 03, 2013, 04:35:06 PM
 #12

After following this all closely I now don't see how anyone could consider this bet won at all.  (Earlier I said perhaps).

Two basic things:

1) They did not ship.
Shipping means = stuff was transported in the mail. this did not happen.

2) Luke's unit is a prototype. It is not the final product.
They are '2 weeks' away from a final product  Wink
The bet referred to final products shipping. Not prototype/dev boards shipping.

Ok strike'd out point 2, as I didn't realize the bet just referred to a 'ASIC unit' not the final product.

But you could easily argue Luke could be considered an employee, because he is getting early access to hardware in exchange for assistance.

...just the fact alone that BFL would go to that much trouble to fake fulfilling the bet is also a huge red flag for the company. Would it not be much more lucrative to work on getting the units going? Oh ya. I guess not. Because they already have tons of money.

Really, honestly I feel for all BFL pre-orders makers. They have every right to be totally livid right now.  

It also had to make 75% of its predicted hash rate.

It made 25Ghash/s.  The predicted has rate in the bet was 40 Hash/s.

25/40 = 62.5%

How do you play that one.

Clear and cut
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April 03, 2013, 04:57:34 PM
 #13

BoB didn't have a dedicated thread to discuss this issue, opting to post on Luke's thread, then based their decision from what was gleaned from there of which the evidence pointed heavily toward true. I voted true, hence enabling me to see the results of the poll on this thread. Amazing!
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April 03, 2013, 05:12:07 PM
 #14

This whole BFL thing sucks Sad

I am a indirect BFL owner (I own shares in a company that bought lots of BFL stuff).

And I am very unhappy with this.

And the decision to draw the bet, was absolutely stupid (if not scammy)

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April 03, 2013, 05:49:34 PM
 #15

They have clearly not shipped anything, the photo shows a demo rig in their offices and was posted too late.  How this can be called a draw is beyound me.  Ill be taking my business elsewhere in future.

I actually liked the site and setup as well.  Does anyone know of anything similar who actual honor their bets?

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April 03, 2013, 05:57:32 PM
 #16

If a draw, then why is the following still up?

Quote
BFL will Not ship any ASICS to customers by May 1st

Butterfly Labs will not ship any ASIC based mining devices to customers by May 1st 2013

according to this they are saying they will be shipping withing a couple of weeks.

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=160586.msg1697916#msg1697916

Info
Opening date: March 31, 2013
Bet deadline: April 29, 2013 end of day Eastern Time
Event date: May 1, 2013 end of day Eastern Time
Category: Technology
Total agree bets: 11.30
Total disagree bets: 11.58
Total weighted agree bets: 7819.294
Total weighted disagree bets: 7642.537

And, exactly what would I be betting on here?:

Quote
BFL will not ship the first batch of their ASIC miners before July 2013

Butterfly Labs has had a long history of postponing their shipment dates. You bet on the fact that the first batch BFL ASIC has not been shipped until July 1st 2013.



Info
Opening date: March 12, 2013
Bet deadline: June 29, 2013 end of day Eastern Time
Event date: July 1, 2013 end of day Eastern Time
Category: Technology
Total agree bets: 2.20
Total disagree bets: 3.05
Total weighted agree bets: 5697.852
Total weighted disagree bets: 7160.416
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April 04, 2013, 05:23:20 AM
 #17

I too posted my unhappiness with the draw on the "offending" thread.

BoB is such a great platform, and it is fun, but they really need to do more to promote the community aspect. They have a suggestion box thingy were I went to suggest they allow comments to be posted under each bet. I saw that someone else made the same request--over a year ago! It seems like allowing some discussion on the actual BoB site would be essential to their business, but it kinda looks like they just don't care.

And some bets take a really long time to be cleared up even though the outcome is obvious the instant the deadline has passed. Couldn't they hire a few more people to act as judges and get bests cleared up more quickly? I'm sure the increased business from faster resolutions and the ability to connect with others  would more than pay for the costs...

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April 04, 2013, 05:36:16 AM
 #18

According to the current poll numbers, 122 people plus me are idiots. I'm a given, for I had every bitcoin I own at InstaWallet.org, but as for the other 122...
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April 04, 2013, 05:38:24 AM
 #19

According to the current poll numbers, 122 people plus me are idiots.

Why do you say that?

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April 04, 2013, 08:57:36 AM
 #20

Does anyone know of anything similar who actual honor their bets?

I've been using bitbet.us

Here's how this bet went down:
http://bitbet.us/bet/265/bfl-will-deliver-asic-devices-before-april-1st/

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