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Author Topic: Why such agreement that Deflationary currency is a bad thing  (Read 4366 times)
dareminator
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April 28, 2013, 04:39:33 PM
 #81

From http://philebersole.wordpress.com/2010/11/17/inflation-through-the-ages/
"Ideally, according to monetarists, there should be a money supply expanding at exactly the same rate that the economy as a whole expands.  This would be impossible in practice, because nobody can know how fast the economy is expanding until after the fact.  So monetarists advocate increasing the money supply at a constant rate – say 2 percent a year – which is consistent with the long-term growth rate of the economy."
"You Asked For Change, We Gave You Coins" -- casascius
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ZephramC
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April 28, 2013, 04:58:12 PM
 #82

We have far too many inflationary currencies. So it feels right to have something different for people who believe that reasonable deflation is in fact a good thing. Spending and investment is not always good. It can lead to malvestment or spending "just for the spending". People will think twice, maybe three times before spending and they will buy only goods they really need. Loans would be possible but naturally discouraged.
If bitcoin gains wider adoption then there surely will be projects how to inflate it. There will be fractional reserve, loans and therefore "false bitcoins" in the form of "promises of real bitcoins". There will be far more promises than bitcoins used in backing. I have no problem with that as long as th following works:
If the BTCbank issuing false BTC goes bankrupt (unable to provide real BTC for the promises) then no one will be able to reimburse people by creating some new real BTC for them. Those people will have to decrease their standard of living (some of them might even lose their houses). And they will have to face the consequences of their mistargeted trust into BTCbank. So will all the merchants accepting false BTC from them. If this works and more reasonable "hoarders" are not forced to help them by a single bitcent then I am OK with all that. It might be that the BTCbank will never go bankrupt. Then the people and merchants will of course benefit from increased money supply. I am also OK with that as long as no one is forced (nor forbidden) to accept false bitcoins.

This fight between Keynesian/classical view on economics and Austrian school seems like neverending story. Such as fight between supporters of "giving people more freedom" and "doing right things for the people and perpetrate good even if it means forcing them".
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April 28, 2013, 06:05:05 PM
 #83


. In an unregulated and deflationary economy employers couldn't drop the wages so low that people would be forced to work for longer without consequences to them personally, that and the limited nature of deflationary currencies wouldn't allow for it mathematics wise

Depends on "what the consequences are to them personally".

Deflation simply means that prices fall. Therefore it's not worth spending money today because things will be cheaper tomorrow. In other words, it encourages hoarding of money.

Now consider that one person's spending is another person's income. Say you are a business. You've made some goods and incurred some costs doing that (cost of materials, cost of labor). But no-one is buying, they are waiting for the price to drop. So you shave your margins. Soon you are selling at cost just to release the money locked in the inventory. But what if people refuse to buy goods at cost? Then you go bust. Your staff are fired. Forget decreasing wages, they have no wages, because there is no business, because no one will buy. As the numbers of people getting laid off increases, sales fall further because these people have nothing to spend. Prices get cut even further to try to attract the remaining business - but no-one is buying because a) they are waiting for the price to drop even further and b) they are scared they'll lose their precious job - so you get even more hoarding and even more businesses going bust and even more people laid off. In a downward spiral.

Eventually, after about twenty years, there are some goods that people absolutely have to have (medicine for example), and people will pay for that, but elsewhere the economy is a wasteland. People emigrate, but they find problems wherever they go because other people resent them moving onto their territory (they've become immigrants). You get starvation, you get riots, you get anti-semitism and racism, and you get people trying to exploit popular anger.

The long depression of the late 19th century, which lasted twenty years spawned two responses - some countries introduced welfare states to prevent the masses from rioting and dying, and other countries had revolutions (Russia) or fell to evil dictators (Germany and Spain in the 1930's).

If there hadn't been deflation during the late 19th century, none of that would have happened - no welfare state, no revolutions and no mad dictators leading to a world war that saw about 30 million dead.

That's why the ideal is keeping prices rock steady - not inflating but not deflating either.

I think people on here are romanticising the desperation, starvation and sheer madness of the late 19th century and early 20th century simply because it has passed out of living memory and there is no family member left to speak of it's horrors. But read up accounts of people who were actually there. It was not a fun time to be alive.

Going back to your comment that "In an unregulated and deflationary economy employers couldn't drop the wages so low that people would be forced to work for longer without consequences to them personally" - it's happened before where people worked for a loaf of three days old stale bread, because the alternative was death. Don't be naive, of course employers can drop wages that low!!! They've done it countless times in history. The only time they haven't was during the Roman empire when the Emperor forced his law on wayward employers and in the last fifty years, which have been a bit of a golden age in the history of man.

Is bitcoin a deflationary currency? I hope it's just a steady one that allows commerce so we don't have to deal with banks. However, I can already see the hoarding tendency become dominant - the most developed parts of the bitcoin economy are those that encourage people to trade bitcoins for dollars - i.e. just like a stock rather than like a means of commerce.

 
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April 28, 2013, 06:10:57 PM
 #84

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If there hadn't been deflation during the late 19th century, none of that would have happened - no welfare state, no revolutions and no mad dictators leading to a world war that saw about 30 million dead.

I thought you were just being ignorant of history but now you're just outright making it up and using hypotheticals to get your way like a neo-keynesian does, I also love the hoarding argument, that's a classic one and has been argued to death, you seem to be completely ignoring all the businesses and people that are trading Bitcoin amongst each other.
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April 28, 2013, 06:18:02 PM
 #85

How many businesses are trading with each other? I can't buy my groceries with bitcoins or even hosting for my domains. The most developed part of the bitcoin economy is trading exchanges - one springs up every day. In other words, there is a tendency to hoard, and then change back money into fiat. That's not a good sign - if bitcoin was the future why on earth would people want to check the price against the dollar or even change it into dollars, complete with regretting that they spent their coins because they'd have made so much money if they'd hoarded it and yup, changed into dollars. The dollar should be irrelevant - but it's not...

 
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AlphaWolf
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April 28, 2013, 06:30:01 PM
 #86

How many businesses are trading with each other? I can't buy my groceries with bitcoins or even hosting for my domains.

https://en.bitcoin.it/wiki/Trade

And at least one reputable host/domain registrar (who for some reason is not on the trade list) who accepts BTC is namecheap.com.  They're also the 4th Google result:

http://lmgtfy.com/?q=web+hosting+bitcoin

If you can't find a host who accepts BTC, it's because you haven't looked.

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April 28, 2013, 06:37:10 PM
 #87

How many businesses are trading with each other? I can't buy my groceries with bitcoins or even hosting for my domains.

https://en.bitcoin.it/wiki/Trade

And at least one reputable host/domain registrar (who for some reason is not on the trade list) who accepts BTC is namecheap.com.  They're also the 4th Google result:

http://lmgtfy.com/?q=web+hosting+bitcoin

If you can't find a host who accepts BTC, it's because you haven't looked.

I'm aware of namecheap - the issue for me (ironic seeing as we're discussing prices!!!) is that their prices are too expensive. For unlimited domain hosting they charge $14.95 a month, whereas hostgator charges $9.99. Namecheap's bitcoin price is the market exchange for dollars. So in order to use my bitcoins to buy hosting I'd have to accept INFLATION of 50%. Like I said - I don't want deflation, but I don't want inflation either. I want prices to be rock steady. Is that too much to ask?

 
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April 28, 2013, 07:01:40 PM
 #88

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Like I said - I don't want deflation, but I don't want inflation either. I want prices to be rock steady. Is that too much to ask?

I think this is just not possible. There are so many variables underlying a price, that you simply cannot hold all your variables constant. 


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April 28, 2013, 07:14:12 PM
 #89

How many businesses are trading with each other? I can't buy my groceries with bitcoins or even hosting for my domains.

https://en.bitcoin.it/wiki/Trade

And at least one reputable host/domain registrar (who for some reason is not on the trade list) who accepts BTC is namecheap.com.  They're also the 4th Google result:

http://lmgtfy.com/?q=web+hosting+bitcoin

If you can't find a host who accepts BTC, it's because you haven't looked.

I'm aware of namecheap - the issue for me (ironic seeing as we're discussing prices!!!) is that their prices are too expensive. For unlimited domain hosting they charge $14.95 a month, whereas hostgator charges $9.99. Namecheap's bitcoin price is the market exchange for dollars. So in order to use my bitcoins to buy hosting I'd have to accept INFLATION of 50%. Like I said - I don't want deflation, but I don't want inflation either. I want prices to be rock steady.  Is that too much to ask?

I also want prices to be "rock steady"... but it may actually be "too much to ask".  The 21 BTC limit is as arbitrary as any governmental monetary policy, just designed to have the opposite effect.  What may happen in the long term is that BTC and fiat strike a sort of mutualistic symbiosis, where the deflation of BTC counteracts the steady inflation of fiat money and people shift their money back and forth as needed to maintain balance.  That may be just a pipe dream though...

I've not used namecheap's hosting, I'm just aware that they're a reputable company and I have registered domains with them.  In general I shy away from "unlimited" services in favor of those with specific service guarantees.  Perhaps I'm a pessimist, but I always take "unlimited" to mean  "We've oversold this service by a factor of infinity... and btw, there is a limit, we're just not going to tell you what it is until you reach it, then we're kicking you to the curb without warning in accordance with the fine print you didn't bother to read".  But, yeah, I might just be a pessimist Wink


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April 28, 2013, 07:52:28 PM
 #90

Prices shouldn't be rock steady but subject to dead normal supply and demand.

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April 28, 2013, 10:05:30 PM
 #91

How many businesses are trading with each other? I can't buy my groceries with bitcoins or even hosting for my domains. The most developed part of the bitcoin economy is trading exchanges - one springs up every day. In other words, there is a tendency to hoard, and then change back money into fiat. That's not a good sign - if bitcoin was the future why on earth would people want to check the price against the dollar or even change it into dollars, complete with regretting that they spent their coins because they'd have made so much money if they'd hoarded it and yup, changed into dollars. The dollar should be irrelevant - but it's not...

You are making a lot of assumptions that are simply not true (very common assumptions though).

I use bittronic.net as my hosting service. I pay in bitcoins monthly.

You can buy just about anything on the Internet at bitspend.net

I spend my bitcoins all the time, I do not regret spending it any more than I would regret the amount of money I have spent on things throughout the year in dollars.

The key to a deflationary currency is that if you have the choice between having and spendng a deflationary currency or having and spending an inflationary currency, why would you choose to use inflationary currency?

Assume bitcoin gains 1% in value per day compared to the dollar (a conservative estimate).

I owe $66 per month for my dedicated hosting service on the 1st.

Dollars:
I get paid on the 15th, I decide to pay my hosting service early (since the value of my dollar goes down anyway, no need to wait). I pay $66 for the next month's service.

Bitcoins:
I get paid on the 15th, I convert those dollars to bitcoins. I wait until the 1st. I pay the equivalent bitcoin amount for $66.

For dollars, there is little change.

For Bitcoins, I have to wait 3 days to move my bitcoins to MtGox where I convert my dollars to bitcoins. Total cost: .5%. It sits in my wallet for 12 days. 12 days at 1% equals 12% gain in value minus the .5%. This gives me an 11.5% discount or $7.59.


My biggest regret with bitcoin is when I see my bank account and I have any dollars in there losing value.

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April 28, 2013, 11:29:05 PM
 #92

We have far too many inflationary currencies. So it feels right to have something different for people who believe that reasonable deflation is in fact a good thing.

And it is not to say that it is a good or bad thing--I just believe in the free market and actual freedom. I think the choice of a deflationary currency--like gold has been for 1000s of years--is an intelligent investing choice. That is why I'm interesting in bitcoin.

Yes, deflation does cause for hording and causes for the velocity of money to plummet in times of crisis when there is only one currency--but we live in the real world, so a deflationary currency is great for saving. It's really shitty for doing loans--which is what 95% of the 'real economy' is based off of, so that is the greatest disadvantage in my mind. I'm am sure however someone brilliant is already working on an algorithm that could give bitcoin loans in a way that wouldn't totally fuck you on the payback later down the road.
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April 29, 2013, 12:11:17 AM
 #93

I'm am sure however someone brilliant is already working on an algorithm that could give bitcoin loans in a way that wouldn't totally fuck you on the payback later down the road.

I make some decent money by loaning out bitcoins.

More of this theory stuff of people assuming things that in reality actually happen.

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April 29, 2013, 12:28:14 AM
 #94

We have far too many inflationary currencies. So it feels right to have something different for people who believe that reasonable deflation is in fact a good thing. Spending and investment is not always good. It can lead to malvestment or spending "just for the spending". People will think twice, maybe three times before spending and they will buy only goods they really need. Loans would be possible but naturally discouraged.
If bitcoin gains wider adoption then there surely will be projects how to inflate it. There will be fractional reserve, loans and therefore "false bitcoins" in the form of "promises of real bitcoins". There will be far more promises than bitcoins used in backing. I have no problem with that as long as th following works:
If the BTCbank issuing false BTC goes bankrupt (unable to provide real BTC for the promises) then no one will be able to reimburse people by creating some new real BTC for them. Those people will have to decrease their standard of living (some of them might even lose their houses). And they will have to face the consequences of their mistargeted trust into BTCbank. So will all the merchants accepting false BTC from them. If this works and more reasonable "hoarders" are not forced to help them by a single bitcent then I am OK with all that. It might be that the BTCbank will never go bankrupt. Then the people and merchants will of course benefit from increased money supply. I am also OK with that as long as no one is forced (nor forbidden) to accept false bitcoins.

This fight between Keynesian/classical view on economics and Austrian school seems like neverending story. Such as fight between supporters of "giving people more freedom" and "doing right things for the people and perpetrate good even if it means forcing them".

I agree with this way of approaching the thread.  Well stated and agree, moral hazard must be avoided in the solution
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April 29, 2013, 05:38:02 AM
 #95

...

...If you can't afford one now, what makes you think you can afford two in 24 years? 

....
If you won't be able to afford it in 24 years, how do you plan to pay the loan in the first place?

(I dont always get new reply notifications, pls send a pm when you think it has happened)

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April 29, 2013, 11:14:29 AM
Last edit: April 29, 2013, 11:34:49 AM by bitchess
 #96

...

...If you can't afford one now, what makes you think you can afford two in 24 years?  

....
If you won't be able to afford it in 24 years, how do you plan to pay the loan in the first place?

The definition of getting a loan is you receive not pay money on day 1.  If you expect the value of money to be higher in the future, that means your loan gets exponentially more expensive to pay back.

Also, one thing that I didn't mention is whenever the rate of deflation increases, the value of all your outstanding debt goes up in value accordingly.  What this means is if you already owe $100,000 on your mortgage (perhaps you took out the loan when there was steady inflation).  Then if the environment shifts toward deflation, you find that your wages are going down, buying houses now are much cheaper in nominal terms, eg the resale value of your house is dropping, yet you still owe the same $100,000.  Because of this event, your net worth decreases in real terms.  Furthermore, if you think more deflation is to come, you immediately do everything you can to pay off the loan now.  (& that action contributes to decreasing overall money supply which propagates a deflationary spiral.)

The main point is, in a deflationary environment, it is irrational to take out any loans or leave pre-existing loans outstanding.  In an inflationary environment or exact money stability, loans are ok to initiate or leave open.
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April 29, 2013, 12:38:23 PM
 #97

It really does promote "spending only on what you need" as I made promise to myself not to spend any btc unless I'm going to die.

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April 29, 2013, 03:47:40 PM
 #98

It really does promote "spending only on what you need" as I made promise to myself not to spend any btc unless I'm going to die.

How do you know when exactly you are going to die?
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April 29, 2013, 08:44:33 PM
 #99

I feel like the solution is an intermediary body that assesses the supply and demand in the economy and sets a digital exchange rate in bitcoins for regular transactions.  Until recently, inflation and deflation were much trickier in my opinion because you had to price things in dollars (or other currencies), not in X good or service worth of $.  Dollars (for instance) are based on all kinds of elements of supply and demand and manipulation and regulation.  The price of dollars fluctuates wildly.  But they are considered to be the baseline of how we figure the price of other things?  

The classic question is... what else?  Money can be traded freely with all other goods and services, so it is meant to kind of average out to some sort of equilibrium on it's own.  That is capitalism.  The invisible hand controls the economy so that nobody else has to.

However.  The invisible hand does a kind of terrible job a lot of the time.  But that doesn't mean that people could do a better job, and indeed they can't.  But computers... Computers have never had the opportunity to try.  Now I am not saying that we should abandon the market system.  But maybe instead of the Federal reserve (in America) trying to figure out what is best for the country and how the 1 or 2 things they can actually do will change the state of affairs, we could adopt a unit of currency that is more flexible and that can accurately and quickly adjust to things that happen.  Because bitcoin is digital and open source and divisible into tiny pieces, it is reasonable to apply other digital techniques to them that just simply wouldn't be possible or practical to use with dollars.  So in one way, we could have a bitcoin backed economy in the way we currently have a debt backed economy.  But just like people don't pay their bills in treasury bonds, there is no reason to figure the current value of goods and services in bitcoins themselves.  Rather we could have a standard unit of bitcoin that changed constantly based on the supply, demand, and value of goods and services in the economy.  Just like the value of dollars changes constantly based on the supply and demand for treasury bonds, and the US economy as a whole.

Basically.   Instead of spending-  a bitcoin-  We could spend a bitdollar worth of bitcoin.  A bitdollar IS X bitcoins where X is the price that reflects the current monetary situation.

I can't wait for the first robot Fed Chairman.
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April 29, 2013, 09:19:24 PM
 #100

Computers are more efficient than humans, they can make more mistakes faster than any human.

(I dont always get new reply notifications, pls send a pm when you think it has happened)

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