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Author Topic: Public service Notice: Please Learn To Handle Your Fear as the market falls now  (Read 2970 times)
Bit_Happy
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June 14, 2011, 04:52:29 AM
 #1

Disclaimer: I "play the market" with 1.2BTC just for fun. I make no significant amount of money of off market moves.

Public service Notice: Please Learn To Handle Your Fear:
Several seasoned investors have posted how shocked they are at our communities extreme swings between Greed and Fear.

  • If you made a huge mistake (ie. using borrowed money), then this might be a great moment to recover part of your money.
  • If you intend to hold on and help Bitcoin succeed then you don't need to worry.

The charts are looking really sick right now*, you could calmly sell above $19 instead of getting desperate at a much lower price.

For some of us the market is an exciting distraction, for others they are terrified of losing real money. at this exact minute, the market is still over $19/BTC. The small rally this evening could have been much bigger, but appears to be fading. Whatever happens, please, remember money isn't everything, and Bitcoin is an exciting experiment.


ps. If I'm mistaken tonight, then at least, please, handle your fears better next time the market falls.
*Does anyone with other investment experience think we are headed back up right away?


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kicir
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June 14, 2011, 05:23:03 AM
 #2

I agree with you sir, I think we're heading south in the short term

there's simply no strength in the market now, it needs to consolidate a bit more before it can find renewed energies to keep moving up

Oldminer
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June 14, 2011, 09:49:43 AM
 #3

I'll be holding onto my coins..$19 is well below its real value..

If you like my post please feel free to give me some positive rep https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?action=trust;u=18639
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Bit_Happy
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June 15, 2011, 09:12:26 PM
 #4

Quiet time just ended with a break to the downside. If you are using borrowed money you might want to get out.

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AyeYo
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June 15, 2011, 09:54:31 PM
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ps. If I'm mistaken tonight, then at least, please, handle your fears better next time the market falls.
*Does anyone with other investment experience think we are headed back up right away?




Previous support at $20 is now resistance.  If that doesn't break (and it appears to be holding just fine), then we're headed lower.  I wouldn't touch this unsafe market with a mile long pole, but if I did, I'd be looking at a fall into the $8 range.  Thing is, with so many pumpers sitting long and absolutely no one sitting short, when we see real capitulation, there's absolutely nothing to stop it from running straight into the ground.  Normally you'd hit a point around strong support ($8 range) that the shorts would step in and cover, which would slow and possibly even reverse the fall, thus causing more shorts to panic and cover, thus beginning a rebound, at which point the bargain buyers come in and start scooping it up... but there's no shorting, so that net isn't there.

When we see real capitulation, this thing is going to get crushed.

Enjoying the dose of reality or getting a laugh out of my posts? Feel free to toss me a penny or two, everyone else seems to be doing it! 1Kn8NqvbCC83zpvBsKMtu4sjso5PjrQEu1
Justsomeforumuser
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June 15, 2011, 11:33:09 PM
 #6

And I wouldn't use the terms s/r for this market to begin with. :p
(Although people seem to love the levels 10$, 20$, 25$ and 30$ for basic navigation)

We have literally got one main exchange with a semi-open order book..if enough push or pull goes through whatever 1-5$ intervals are placed, it can quickly be like shooting a wet paper bag with a shotgun.

I'd sooner use the volatility as a warning sign..since first of June we had insane daily range, now we had a day of holding still.

I think we are a lot more prone towards simply getting pulled along whatever the herd runs after, until someone really big steps in..and as similiar in vague terms that may be to the real market, the reality is that we have literally a sandcorn worth of volume compared to a 30 mile beach of a real market. So trying to impose much sense or logic onto where we are or the levels per se is likely a game of folly.

Much more interesting is the game theory / mass psychology aspect.

My premise remains more wrapped around:
1. What do people see as "fair value"
2. How many giant holders waiting to scale out are there
3. a) How many people and at volume will continue to buy in order to cash out the smart ones to keep the ponzi alive for how long
3. b) How much "pocket reservoir" exists to continue to drive a price trend in a direction once something resembling a trend begins in the first place (we literally need people to buy BTC purely on speculation during these phases as normal conversion use is likely extremely minimal in proportion compared to this)

If some smart folks had an aggregated, market encompassing overview of placed and executed orders I'm sure they'd be having a hayday(ahemmtgoxownersahem).

One way or the other - I think this is much more a sentiment market than a levels market, and trying to change that with a thread or two..well let's say I don't have the faith that some text here will just go and change human nature when it comes to money that easily. :p

Ho-Hum.
AyeYo
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June 16, 2011, 01:45:11 AM
 #7

This market is different from "real" markets mostly because we don't know what kind of funny business the exchange is pulling.  We don't even know if the data feed is truthful, let alone accurate.  Aside from that, it's just like any other market.  Markets behavior is human psychology and human psychology doesn't change from market to market.

Why people have chosen the level that they have is irrelevant.  I agree that we've got a market full of inexperienced traders playing off whole numbers because that's what they think makes sense, but that doesn't make those S/R levels any less real.  Sometimes those S/R level are self-fulfilling prophecies, as the $8-10 range will be.  People will draw some arbitrary lines on their charts and, simply based on how the candlesticks formed, a large majority of people are going to come up with ~$8 as a support level.  That alone will bring buying in at that level as people anticipate a halt to the fall, which, ironically enough, may halt the fall itself.  S/R is often purely psychological, but those psychological levels are no less relevant than physical S/R levels (where a large number of people are short or long).

Enjoying the dose of reality or getting a laugh out of my posts? Feel free to toss me a penny or two, everyone else seems to be doing it! 1Kn8NqvbCC83zpvBsKMtu4sjso5PjrQEu1
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