My Bitcoin Speculation Thread. Please Critique my Analysis. ;)

[tokeweed]

I don't know man.
To me it looks like some big guys don't want us to rise.They need us down, in terms of price, at least for some more while.
That china rumor of course helped in that case. Just spread some neg bs and enough people will start to panic.And the big and smart guys of course take advantage of that and make their stash of coins even bigger.
Or it is just some whales who like to take some more fiat profits for some more time before Bitcoin really starts to accelerate.
Whatever the reason is, we small guys will have no influence.So lets just take things easy and deal with the situatoin.

Who do you mean by 'they'?  Don't you think this is just a minor panic sell due to that fake news about capital controls by the Chinese government?  I think we're putting too much stock to that rumor that it's already affecting our way to trade.  There may be some traders who are still thinking twice before diving into the action right now.

[tokeweed]

BTC/USD:  Unable to Break the 750 USD Barrier



Is that how high BTC could get?  Maybe how high it can get for the time being...?  Traders seem to sell their bags at 740 to the 750 USD level for some reason, so the question is have we seen the current top at this stage and must sell some in order to buy back at lower prices?  It peaked at around the same level months ago right before the Bitfinex hack occurred.  

Until it breaches beyond 760 -770 USD or so then I would likely think it's gonna start trading in a range from the lower 600's to the 750 level for a couple of months or so.

What do you guys think?

[markisanon2434]

BTC/USD:  Unable to Break the 750 USD Barrier



Is that how high BTC could get?  Maybe how high it can get for the time being...?  Traders seem to sell their bags at 740 to the 750 USD level for some reason, so the question is have we seen the current top at this stage and must sell some in order to buy back at lower prices?  It peaked at around the same level months ago right before the Bitfinex hack occurred.  

Until it breaches beyond 760 -770 USD or so then I would likely think it's gonna start trading in a range from the lower 600's to the 750 level for a couple of months or so.

What do you guys think?

Hmm.. same thoughts here. If bitcoin breaks 780/790 levels. I expect it to move to higher levels like 850/900 and so. Fresh entries are suggested once btc breaks out. Right now it may still be in range bound although I wonder how long it will stay range bound. Ultimately, I expect btc to breakout from the 800 range in style.  Good thread dude. Keep up the work!

 

[CyberKuro]

I think this is a panic sell caused by the rumor about China imposing Capital control over bitcoin.  This is how shakeable bitcoin supporter is lol.  Just a rumor to make them sell, well probably those who sells are already in a profit.  So more possibility is the pre-mature cashing out of people for profit.

Fake rumors and people selling their Bitcoins (panic) ... I believe it would go up again.

More probably it will, as i observed the price it is starting to bounce back now.  Hopefully it will continue.

Those reason could have effect to people who want profit and panic if the price fall down, so many of them panic sell their coin.
Bitcoin price simply affect by supply and demand which supply always decrease due to miners reward decline.
Although the price fall to $680, it recover to stable price ($700) and keep increasing now, we should reach $800 soon if there are no problems again.

[afbitcoins]

Bitcoin and gold both spiked high during the US election only to then fall again which I found interesting. The instinctive reaction to Trump news was price rise, flight to safety for both. But why did they both, gold and bitcoin then fall and give up all the gains?

In this case I think gold is still the defacto indicator for the investor class. With bitcoin tagging along for laughs and giggles. Happily for the powers that be gold is easily manipulated via paper derivatives and has been hammered down into submission. Under the radar of most investors, bitcoin is not playing ball and rises according to market forces the way gold would too if not being stomped on.

In order to try and suppress rises in bitcoin the elites have no sophisticated futures market and paper derivatives able to drag the price around so they have to actually sell real bitcoins to suppreess the price or resort to mope in the media, eg china bans bitconi again.

Just my theory

[tokeweed]

In order to try and suppress rises in bitcoin the elites have no sophisticated futures market and paper derivatives able to drag the price around so they have to actually sell real bitcoins to suppreess the price or resort to mope in the media, eg china bans bitconi again.

Just my theory

The funny thing is if Wall Street starts to create Bitcoin based financial instruments and derivatives, as a side effect, it will legitimize Bitcoin as a mainstream investment.  It would also benefit the Bitcoin whales which Wall Street are avoiding to make them, the Bitcoin whales, even richer.  It will also benefit the dark markets because their preferred currency is now well recognized.

[tokeweed]

BTC/USD:  Break on Through



Are we in for the big one this time?  Will we finally see Bitcoin surge way and beyond 800 USD?  All signs are pointing to a 'yes' for now, but as in the past it also could not be so.  It's really hard predicting the market as volatile as BTC/USD and the ones that try end up losing some money.  For the ones already holding, keep holding if you don't need the fiat.  For the ones who are looking to get in, just buy the dips.

Bitcoin holders also have the advantage to increase their holdings further by shorting altcoins.  ETH and REP come first in mind of good shorts. 

[alyssa85]

BTC/USD:  Break on Through



Are we in for the big one this time?  Will we finally see Bitcoin surge way and beyond 800 USD?  All signs are pointing to a 'yes' for now, but as in the past it also could not be so.  It's really hard predicting the market as volatile as BTC/USD and the ones that try end up losing some money.  For the ones already holding, keep holding if you don't need the fiat.  For the ones who are looking to get in, just buy the dips.

Bitcoin holders also have the advantage to increase their holdings further by shorting altcoins.  ETH and REP come first in mind of good shorts. 

Don't know is the answer. It is nailed on that the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates this month - this will cause the dollar to surge against most currencies plus gold.

But because bitcoin is a small market easily manipulated, bitcoin might not be affected, especially if people in China and elsewhere are piling in to protect the value of their money. I'm sitting this one out!

[tokeweed]

The current run of BTC/USD is a perfect example of how it should be right now.  It's slow, stable with a small pinch of volatility on the upside and downside here and there.  But the overall trend is up.  I love it.  Imagine if it could stay like this for two to three years.

[tokeweed]

Ok, so it looks like it's still going strong.  What more analysis can we all come up with?  Mostly nothing of value if you're not holding Bitcoin.

So for all the BTC holders out there, I have nothing but this song to celebrate the current price surge!

Swing Out Sister - Breakout
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=dzqm4XVkMJ4

[tokeweed]

BTC/USD:  The Parabolic Rise...  And When Things Start Breaking Down



This is where active traders, both pros and amateurs, start getting irrational and become risk averse as their gains start getting big.  In my experience of observing all the different coins and tokens traded in the scene, this is where some cheeky traders start taking profit by dumping on the clueless ones.  They live by the mantra 'Buy when others are fearful and sell when others are greedy'.  In knowing that some of the other short biased cheeky traders start placing their huge shorts in the market right now and make a killing when the trend reverses.  And with BTC, falling prices do fall fast. 

I'm not saying that Bitcoin will surely fall vs the USD right now, all I'm saying is that it's time to be careful.

[tokeweed]

This is the part I hate.  After a parabolic rise, there's nothing.  Is there a possibilty of more upside action?  Yes.  Is there a possibility of more dumps in the market killing the trend?  Yes. 

In answering both those questions 'yes', leaves most of us confused and afraid on what to do next.

[quake313]

This is the part I hate.  After a parabolic rise, there's nothing.  Is there a possibilty of more upside action?  Yes.  Is there a possibility of more dumps in the market killing the trend?  Yes. 

In answering both those questions 'yes', leaves most of us confused and afraid on what to do next.

Best thing to do is sit back and watch.

[tokeweed]

This is the part I hate.  After a parabolic rise, there's nothing.  Is there a possibilty of more upside action?  Yes.  Is there a possibility of more dumps in the market killing the trend?  Yes.  

In answering both those questions 'yes', leaves most of us confused and afraid on what to do next.

Best thing to do is sit back and watch.

That's the thing isn't it?  As it is my belief that no one can accurately predict the market, then your exact words, however simple, is the wisest thing to do right now.  BUT I will add to that:  'Best thing to do is sit back and watch.  But keep that trailing stop handy just to be safe.'

[tokeweed]

Yup I knew this would happen.  These types of panic dumps usually do after a parabolic rise.  If this happened in the NYSE the SEC would be all over the place investigating why and what caused it.  Another bubble popped, another manipulated rise dumped on by the same drivers that drove it.

I will post a chart later to see if there are possible shorting opportunities.

[tokeweed]

Look for Shorting Opportunities During a Bull Trap?



Before giving me some flack, I wanna say that I'm neither a permabull or a permabear.  I just take whatever the market is giving me and go with that.  Right now the market did what it did so you can't really blame some real people from looking for shorting opportunities.  It's obvious the current trend is over.  There will be bull traps caused by the people in denial here and there and I think it might be a good opportunity to short on them.  Please post your comments below.  Thanks.

[tokeweed]

Is This the Bull Trap We Have Been Waiting For?



So I got impatient and shorted a little and lost.  Lol.  I should have listened to my own advice and actually waited for that bull trap.  Well, this could be it...  BUT it also couldn't be considering how unpredictable Bitcoin traders are.  Sometimes they flick a switch and boom, we have a new uptrend that could go on for weeks.

Yeah, I'm lost.    Tell me what you think by posting a comment below.  Thanks!

[Ted E. Bare]

What I think: Do not short bitcoin. The price has been increasing dramatically almost every year. Shorting is way too risky.

[Denker]

On the daily charts Bitcoin still moves in an uptrend channel with a breakout the last two days.
And as long as we don't leave that channel downwards I wouldn't even think about shorting Bitcoin.

[tokeweed]

We'll see it more if Bitcoin surpasses the recent high.  But something tells me that this could also be a double top.  Something inside me is saying that I should place short sell orders at the 1130 - 1140 USD area right now in anticipation of a likely double top.  Then again if other traders are also anticipating it, it could fall before it could even reach that level creating the bull trap.  Safer bet would be the anticipation of the double top imo.  Then place covers a tad higher in case it surges up some more.  Gamboool!