My Bitcoin Speculation Thread. Please Critique my Analysis. ;)

[sandiman]

We'll see it more if Bitcoin surpasses the recent high.  But something tells me that this could also be a double top.  Something inside me is saying that I should place short sell orders at the 1130 - 1140 USD area right now in anticipation of a likely double top.  Then again if other traders are also anticipating it, it could fall before it could even reach that level creating the bull trap.  Safer bet would be the anticipation of the double top imo.  Then place covers a tad higher in case it surges up some more.  Gamboool!  

this is pure gambling my friend ...

any rational idea for anticipating a double top ? 2017 is bitcoin's year (well it was already since mid 2015 )

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[tokeweed]

Yeah I gotta admit, when I made the post it was due to the frustration of Bitcoin quicky surging on the minute I was already getting interested in altcoins again.  Particularly MAID, XEM and NXT.  So all bets were off.  Made a little with the first two (should have made more) but thankfully it made me let go of NXT earlier than planned, limiting the loss.

So no rational explaination there.  

Now holding all BTC and looking for solid alts at discount prices.  I'm also thinking of gambling some at QTUM ICO too.  

[sandiman]

Yeah I gotta admit, when I made the post it was due to the frustration of Bitcoin quicky surging on the minute I was already getting interested in altcoins again.  Particularly MAID, XEM and NXT.  So all bets were off.  Made a little with the first two (should have made more) but thankfully it made me let go of NXT earlier than planned, limiting the loss.

So no rational explaination there.  

Now holding all BTC and looking for solid alts at discount prices.  I'm also thinking of gambling some at QTUM ICO too.  

Nice; i am personnaly still in the alts I bought 2/3 months ago, I have more than enough BTCs  

[tokeweed]

Yeah I gotta admit, when I made the post it was due to the frustration of Bitcoin quicky surging on the minute I was already getting interested in altcoins again.  Particularly MAID, XEM and NXT.  So all bets were off.  Made a little with the first two (should have made more) but thankfully it made me let go of NXT earlier than planned, limiting the loss.

So no rational explaination there.  

Now holding all BTC and looking for solid alts at discount prices.  I'm also thinking of gambling some at QTUM ICO too.  

Nice; i am personnaly still in the alts I bought 2/3 months ago, I have more than enough BTCs  

Heh.  I hope you don't get too in love with them.  I can see a couple of alts getting ripe to be shorted in the coming weeks, granting that Bitcoin continues the uptrend that is.

[mkmdoc]

Yeah I gotta admit, when I made the post it was due to the frustration of Bitcoin quicky surging on the minute I was already getting interested in altcoins again.  Particularly MAID, XEM and NXT.  So all bets were off.  Made a little with the first two (should have made more) but thankfully it made me let go of NXT earlier than planned, limiting the loss.

So no rational explaination there.  

Now holding all BTC and looking for solid alts at discount prices.  I'm also thinking of gambling some at QTUM ICO too.  

Nice; i am personnaly still in the alts I bought 2/3 months ago, I have more than enough BTCs  

Heh.  I hope you don't get too in love with them.  I can see a couple of alts getting ripe to be shorted in the coming weeks, granting that Bitcoin continues the uptrend that is.

Yes i see many altcoin are failing in ICO itself only, but we have to be very careful in choosing the altcoin in order to make profits from it. I hope bitcoin is the best option when compared to altcoin because bitcoin price is steadily increasing.

[sandiman]

Yeah I gotta admit, when I made the post it was due to the frustration of Bitcoin quicky surging on the minute I was already getting interested in altcoins again.  Particularly MAID, XEM and NXT.  So all bets were off.  Made a little with the first two (should have made more) but thankfully it made me let go of NXT earlier than planned, limiting the loss.

So no rational explaination there.  

Now holding all BTC and looking for solid alts at discount prices.  I'm also thinking of gambling some at QTUM ICO too.  

Nice; i am personnaly still in the alts I bought 2/3 months ago, I have more than enough BTCs  

Heh.  I hope you don't get too in love with them.  I can see a couple of alts getting ripe to be shorted in the coming weeks, granting that Bitcoin continues the uptrend that is.

Yes i see many altcoin are failing in ICO itself only, but we have to be very careful in choosing the altcoin in order to make profits from it. I hope bitcoin is the best option when compared to altcoin because bitcoin price is steadily increasing.

Bitcoin is the best choice 

[tokeweed]

Yep.  It's Looking More and More Like a Bull Trap.



Do we have to say anything and deny it?  It's right in there in front of our faces.  Did you really think the PBOC will stay away after a couple of warnings from them?  No, they're out there to cause havoc.  If you have BTC in a Chinese exchange.  GTFO now!

[tokeweed]

No stupid charts to visualize what's happening this time.  Anyway...  So the Winklevoss bro.s' little play toy, the BTC ETF has been rejected.  So what now?  Is this the end of the current trend or are we seeing more bullishness come our way?

Imo, I think Bitcoin will continue rising.  The hell with China and the hell with that joke, the ETF.  Bitcoin is good as is.

Post below and tell us what you think.

[tokeweed]

Well it looks like I was wrong in second guessing myself and that Bitcoin was indeed in a bull trap.  This time around I'd be careful with the trading strategy 'buying the dips'.  It was a good strategy before, but with the Core vs BU thng going on, I'd rather buy the dips on a good stable altcoin.

[tokeweed]

Another dead cat bounce.  Expect BTC/USD to fall again soon folks.  And imho, if you missed going short for whatever reasons, where the price of Bitcoin is now is a good window for a little shorting.  Check the daily chart if you can, there has been three lower highs already including the one now.

[sandiman]

for less risk averse people, shorting bitcoin longing alt may increase gain considerably (at least it has been my case since one month).

[tokeweed]

for less risk averse people, shorting bitcoin longing alt may increase gain considerably (at least it has been my case since one month).

That's true, but it does increase the volatility on your portfolio tho.

Anyway, here's a visualization of what I was trying to say in my post above.  It's the perfect set up to short imho.  But as always get ready to cover if the trade goes against you.

BTC/USD:  Three Dead Cat Bounces

[sandiman]

for less risk averse people, shorting bitcoin longing alt may increase gain considerably (at least it has been my case since one month).

That's true, but it does increase the volatility on your portfolio tho.

Anyway, here's a visualization of what I was trying to say in my post above.  It's the perfect set up to short imho.  But as always get ready to cover if the trade goes against you.

BTC/USD:  Three Dead Cat Bounces

if you're to focused on portfolio volatility while it is going with your actual trade plan, watching equity curve can increase the drawdown period as you start being afraid of more loss and stop following the plan for when the big trade happen.

[tokeweed]

I meant that in general.  For me personally, I do a semi mechanical trading style and follow thru with the plan no matter what.  I think I'm one of the people who suffer huge drawdowns percentage wise here in the forum.  I have trades where I could have gotten out with +3x returns only to see them become losing trades at certain times.  It sucks but it's always about the long run.

[sandiman]

I meant that in general.  For me personally, I do a semi mechanical trading style and follow thru with the plan no matter what.  I think I'm one of the people who suffer huge drawdowns percentage wise here in the forum.  I have trades where I could have gotten out with +3x returns only to see them become losing trades at certain times.  It sucks but it's always about the long run.

if you follow a plan that win on the long run, you're good given that you've got enough capital to support the drawdowns period which always happen, I'd even say most of the time.

[tokeweed]

I meant that in general.  For me personally, I do a semi mechanical trading style and follow thru with the plan no matter what.  I think I'm one of the people who suffer huge drawdowns percentage wise here in the forum.  I have trades where I could have gotten out with +3x returns only to see them become losing trades at certain times.  It sucks but it's always about the long run.

if you follow a plan that win on the long run, you're good given that you've got enough capital to support the drawdowns period which always happen, I'd even say most of the time.

Yeah, but sometimes it gets really frustrating.  Especially when I hear stories in the troll box in an exchange that 'so and so' starting with .5 BTC and ran it up to 80 BTC in a week trading with maximum leverage.  Lol.  I don't know if they're telling the truth or trolling or something. 

[sandiman]

I meant that in general.  For me personally, I do a semi mechanical trading style and follow thru with the plan no matter what.  I think I'm one of the people who suffer huge drawdowns percentage wise here in the forum.  I have trades where I could have gotten out with +3x returns only to see them become losing trades at certain times.  It sucks but it's always about the long run.

if you follow a plan that win on the long run, you're good given that you've got enough capital to support the drawdowns period which always happen, I'd even say most of the time.

Yeah, but sometimes it gets really frustrating.  Especially when I hear stories in the troll box in an exchange that 'so and so' starting with .5 BTC and ran it up to 80 BTC in a week trading with maximum leverage.  Lol.  I don't know if they're telling the truth or trolling or something. 

what they don't tell you is that they lost it all the following week  this is a patience game, not a get rich quick scheme.

[Ted E. Bare]

Another dead cat bounce.  Expect BTC/USD to fall again soon folks.  And imho, if you missed going short for whatever reasons, where the price of Bitcoin is now is a good window for a little shorting.  Check the daily chart if you can, there has been three lower highs already including the one now.

That is a very very bad idea. According to a lot of analysts the bottom was in. In general you never want to short after a huge crash had just happened in the previous weeks. The overall trend is clearly UP. (Just my opinion).

[Slark]

Yeah, but sometimes it gets really frustrating.  Especially when I hear stories in the troll box in an exchange that 'so and so' starting with .5 BTC and ran it up to 80 BTC in a week trading with maximum leverage.  Lol.  I don't know if they're telling the truth or trolling or something.  

It is called troll box for a reason, it is better to never believe anything random people say.
Especially when they are bragging about their fantastic trading strategy and max leverage which works every time.

That is a very very bad idea. According to a lot of analysts the bottom was in. In general you never want to short after a huge crash had just happened in the previous weeks. The overall trend is clearly UP. (Just my opinion).

I agree, we are shaken off FUD caused by forking drama and we are going up. Bitcoin rose 4% in last 24 hours. While ETH lost more than 6%.

[Miz4r]

Did nobody notice the huge bullish divergence on the 4h charts? Selling volume on the last drop to $890 was way lower than the drop before to $940. This should be telling you the sellers are drying up and the price will be going up soon. We may see another drop later but I expect the price to go up for a while now. My target is $1165 in 1-2 weeks from now, after which something will trigger another drop. Probably Roger Ver will pull another Mike Hearn and will announce he is giving up on Bitcoin and moving his entire stash to Monero or some other fancy alt of his taste.