My Bitcoin Speculation Thread. Please Critique my Analysis. ;)

[hashtag101]

BTC/USD:  LOL



And this is why I have been so reluctant on shorting Bitcoin.  All it takes is a group of motivated traders to buy it up significantly moving the price up and hitting all those automotaic stop losses and margin calls making the price rise accelerate even faster.

Yes, I not know the reason make the price of Bitcoin pumping fast in yesterday. WTF from $1800, Bitcoin recovery and breakout to $2800 in today lol, I can sure 100% by whales and the fomo of trader on market

[tokeweed]

I'm pretty sure, besides the FOMO, there were bots and automatic stoplosses and margin calls closing the shorts involved in making the price go up so fast like that.

[tokeweed]

BTC/USD:  Cocking Up and Firing Soon?



Are we going to see another ATH soon?  There seems to be some forces in the market that wants it to be so, but then again there's an opposite force trying to turn it into a double top.

But the fact that most are skeptical makes me think it's a double top, but then again a huge surge up could cause FOMO and make it surge up even more.  

You decide.

[Herbert2020]

Are we going to see another ATH soon?  There seems to be some forces in the market that wants it to be so, but then again there's an opposite force trying to turn it into a double top.

But the fact that most are skeptical makes me think it's a double top, but then again a huge surge up could cause FOMO and make it surge up even more. 

it is currently testing the ATH, and in my experience when things are like this we can't predict anything. i would wait and see if the ATH is broken, if price goes above that line then it will be (as you said) a FOMO and price will surge a lot higher and if not there will be another dip down to around $4000-$4100 again.

[HalfDeck]

Are we going to see another ATH soon?  There seems to be some forces in the market that wants it to be so, but then again there's an opposite force trying to turn it into a double top.

But the fact that most are skeptical makes me think it's a double top, but then again a huge surge up could cause FOMO and make it surge up even more. 

it is currently testing the ATH, and in my experience when things are like this we can't predict anything. i would wait and see if the ATH is broken, if price goes above that line then it will be (as you said) a FOMO and price will surge a lot higher and if not there will be another dip down to around $4000-$4100 again.

Yes, this is the time careful of trader on market, they also understand the risk when trading in the final days of the month like now, so the volume trading usually decrease if do not have hot trend like Monero in past days.

[hello_good_sir]

All time high really wouldn't be any of a surprise. As you said there seems to be at least some kind of force trying to push up the bitcoin price whilst there are other people that are dumping their stash. It's really just come to a halt at around $4200-4400, not going down and up right now.

I would be really careful trading right now, though. Buying in for the short term could potentially gain you several hundred bucks per coin you buy if bitcoin goes up further to break the ATH, but then the profits won't be as crazy as earlier this year.

We're in a bubble, and this could crash at any given time. Try not to get too comfortable.

[tokeweed]

Are we going to see another ATH soon?  There seems to be some forces in the market that wants it to be so, but then again there's an opposite force trying to turn it into a double top.

But the fact that most are skeptical makes me think it's a double top, but then again a huge surge up could cause FOMO and make it surge up even more. 

it is currently testing the ATH, and in my experience when things are like this we can't predict anything. i would wait and see if the ATH is broken, if price goes above that line then it will be (as you said) a FOMO and price will surge a lot higher and if not there will be another dip down to around $4000-$4100 again.

Yes, this is the time careful of trader on market, they also understand the risk when trading in the final days of the month like now, so the volume trading usually decrease if do not have hot trend like Monero in past days.

Monero doesn't have a trend although I agree that it's indeed really hot right now.  What I hate about Monero is that it's so unpredictable.  Check the XMR/BTC chart and you'll see that it's so spiky and an ugly looking chart.  The best way to make some BTC from it is to buy and hold. 

In Fluffy we trust! 

[tokeweed]

Obviously There Ain't No Stopping BTC



It has done it 4 times in 2017 alone, and maybe double that if you include 2016.  Do you guys think we'll see BTC/USD at 10K USD by the 3rd quarter of 2018?  I think yes.  

Despite all the FUD, all the bans and all the bad projections, BTC ain't listening.  It keeps saying 'Adios suckers!'.

We still might haven't seen the real 'to the moon' yet.

Edit:  Oh, and feel free to critique me.  All the analysis just went out the window.  Took me awhile to realize, TA ain't sh*t when it comes to this run.

[tokeweed]

It's been a long time...    I started the thread at a time when BTC just begun its crazy ride.  I think it's time to get back into it again. 

[Wexlike]

It's been a long time...    I started the thread at a time when BTC just begun its crazy ride.  I think it's time to get back into it again. 

Love to see old prediction threads coming up again. So how are you feeling tokeweed ? Do you get a cozy bullish feeling for the coming year as well ?

[exstasie]

It's been a long time...    I started the thread at a time when BTC just begun its crazy ride.  I think it's time to get back into it again. 

Yes! There is an utter lack of technical analysis around here lately. I need more chart ideas to challenge my biases.

I'm sensing some very 2016-like qualities about the current market. Despite all the bearish sentiment, I think 2020 is going be a very exciting year. What are your thoughts?

[tokeweed]

What do you guys think?



It's all starting to get interesting again tbh (at least for me).  I also tend to come in a tad later than everybody else (esp. after having almost two years of winning nothing.  Lmao) so we'll see...

[figmentofmyass]

What do you guys think?

i'm cautiously optimistic. we're coming off a strong double bottom and breaking up from a lengthy sideways accumulation---that's as good as it gets. any good bull market starts that way. however, it's too early to distinguish between a bull run and a bull trap. as long as we're below the weekly 20ma, the 200dma, the upper trendline extending from last summer......nothing has really happened yet. the longer term charts still say "bear market until proven otherwise".

i've been watching dmwardjr's thread. he's got a great track record and he's bullish as hell. i want to believe:

"$8,000 to Come Soon With $9,000 at the 50-MA in 3-Day @ Year End."

[tokeweed]

^  It's been looking good so far...  It was sold down a bit but then held those recent gainzzz.  Maybe a little dip buying could start being a good idea. 

[tokeweed]

It's holding on you guys...  And this is the part when it gets iffy.  The guys who missed getting in would tend to get emotional and start buying at market causing more people to do the same.

Just be calm and wait.  If there's a good time to do a little dip buying, it's now.

[exstasie]

It's holding on you guys...  And this is the part when it gets iffy.  The guys who missed getting in would tend to get emotional and start buying at market causing more people to do the same.

Just be calm and wait.  If there's a good time to do a little dip buying, it's now.

Sure feels like dip buying season, alright.

You see these altcoin breakouts today? The market is getting excited. Crazy daily candles on ETH, LTC, and others. This is Litecoin:



Still, until BTC has confirmed the 200-day and 20-week MAs as support I've still got Winston Wolfe in the back of my head.

[tokeweed]

^  Meme prolly turning out to be true.  The lack of volume is getting a little bit concerning.  Lol.  It could be another chance to do a little dip buy tho.  We'll see...  (Get your stops ready)

[tokeweed]

Not looking good (but still holding on).  *This is the part when I get spooked and sell without it letting hit my stop and be happy I saved some BTC's in the process, only to see it go 3x without me (my ETC trade)*  Lolol.

[tokeweed]

Here's that moment to finally see if this s**t's real or not.  But I hate the way it bounced so fast with no serious volume behind it.  Could be a DCB...?

Edit:  But then again if you look at it this way, it looks like all the selling is done with 7k(ish) the bottom.

[tokeweed]

Uuuhh...  Looks like it's gonna turn from dip buying to bounce selling.  Lower highs for the time being for now folks...  I think.  -_-