Seperate mining and confirmation? possible?

[blacksmithtm]

hi.

is it going to take longer and longer for confirmations to appear, as the difficulty in mining rises? If so, what consequences are this going to have on the bitcoin economy?

[DeathAndTaxes]

no it isn't going to take longer.  the network maintains 10 minutes per block.  The reason difficulty goes up is because the network has become "too fast = too powerful for current difficulty).  Every 2016 blocks the network computes how long it took compared to how long it should have taken (2016 * 10 minutes).  If the network was 10% too fast then difficulty will rise 10% and the same amount of hashpower will now take 10 minutes per block. 

Difficulty is how the network ensures that no matter how much or little hashpower is on the network the time between blocks will remain roughly 10 minutes.  So if difficulty goes to 20 quadrillion the time between blocks will still be ... 10 minutes.

[blacksmithtm]

Can difficulty fall again, if the network would become too slow? And how come its suppose to take rougly 10 minutes for a block to be mined?

[OskarLoderr]

Theoretically yes, but I doubt it.

In order for that to happen people would have to stop making money by mining, there are too many machines out there that have already paid for themselves for that to happen.

[blacksmithtm]

But when there are no longer coins being introduced, some miners will leave? They would have pushed the difficulty way up, and when they switch of their machines, well then what

[OskarLoderr]

But when there are no longer coins being introduced, some miners will leave? They would have pushed the difficulty way up, and when they switch of their machines, well then what

You're talking about over a century from now. At current rates, there is still going to be a block reward until ~2140 if I'm remembering correctly. That, and there's always going to be transaction fees included in the blocks.

Of course people are going to switch off machines as they become not profitable, however people are always adding new machines that are profitable and more efficient. So, I don't see difficulty ever really decreasing in any meaningful amount.


The 10 minute time is just arbitrary, the network changes the difficulty of the problems to get to that average time.

[DeathAndTaxes]

Yes difficulty rises and falls.  It has risen and fallen hundreds of times in the past.  Each difficulty adjustment it adjusts by the amount necessary to put the network back on a 10 minute cycle.

The red line is difficulty notice is adjusts every 2016 blocks and tracks hashpower.  If hash power is rising difficult rises to "catch up", if hash power is lower difficulty falls.

[OskarLoderr]

What happened in the beginning of the year to hurt hash power that badly?

[blacksmithtm]

that is very interesting. and this is probably a very nooby question. so apolgies. but can only 1 block be mined at the time?