A year from now (2014/04/05)

[Elwar]

If the price grows at 5% weekly starting from 2013-01-01, $320
If the price grows at the lifetime average weekly rate of 7.3%, $1400
If the price grows at the rate it has achieved in 2013, $1.1 million.

Ok, so somewhere between $320 and $1.1 million. Can we hold you to that prediction?

[bb113]

Either zero or between 72 and graham's number.

...the observable universe is far too small to contain an ordinary digital representation of Graham's number, assuming that each digit occupies at least one Planck volume. Even power towers... are useless for this purpose, although it can be easily described by recursive formulas using Knuth's up-arrow notation or the equivalent, as was done by Graham. The last ten digits of Graham's number are ...2464195387.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Graham%27s_number
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XTeJ64KD5cg

[justusranvier]

Ok, so somewhere between $320 and $1.1 million. Can we hold you to that prediction?

Either between $320 and $1.1 million, or $0.

[BitcoinTate]

See, the Proudhon thread from early 2012 that Op copies almost ad verbatim here (i c wut u did), has Proudhon predicting single digits at this time (he was two digits off.) And the average prediction from other posters in that thread is around $14, which is a tenth of what it is now, a year later. What does this mean?

In April 2012, both the bears AND the bulls were way off, and predicted a price between 10 and 100 times lower than it is today. We need to use a new animal - perhaps the vulture? A big black scary-looking vulture with a cascascius coin hanging off a gold bling chain around its neck, and of course, grasped within its talons is a sinister package that it is delivering anonymously (next day air!) for Silk Road. Naturally, the vulture is a metaphor for the hungry, circling bitcoiners moving in on the sickly, decaying banksters and devouring the last bits of their wealth.

Now, Proudhon is stuck in a perpetual price microcosm and continues to see every single 2-hour 10% decrease (even if it is followed by a massive upswing) as sign of a humongous long crash lasting 6 months and bringing us back to single digits, so perhaps we need to start calling him a "dodo bird" or similar animal that is renowned for being silly and/or stupid. "Bear" is almost a compliment.

So I'm going to go ahead and say that in a year's time, 1 BTC will be at least $10,000 USD, but really I think 100,000 isn't too much of a stretch.

i seem to remember something about extrapolation... nah, not important. I'll be retiring in 6 months at age 24, folks. XKCD can go suck it.

+1 I will also be retiring at the ripe old age of 25

[bitcon]

my prediction: $5150/btc

[maxmint]

Either zero or between 72 and graham's number.

...the observable universe is far too small to contain an ordinary digital representation of Graham's number, assuming that each digit occupies at least one Planck volume. Even power towers... are useless for this purpose, although it can be easily described by recursive formulas using Knuth's up-arrow notation or the equivalent, as was done by Graham. The last ten digits of Graham's number are ...2464195387.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Graham%27s_number
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XTeJ64KD5cg

Grahams's number. Wow. I do have high expectations, but Graham's number – we just won't reach that

[Adrian-x]

All random estimates :
Me: up of $32,000
5 year old: $700
7 year old: $1048.41
Wife: $500
Dog: $0

[BitcoinTate]

For BTC to hit $100,000 within 10 years there would obviously have to be an average increase of $10,000 per year. Since most internet adoptions occur exponentially and I see no reason for BTC not to be worth at least $1 million 10 years from now. I would guess BTC might hit $10,000 by the end of this year. We will hit $300 by April 15th.

[BitcoinAshley]

Dog: $0

I would expect at least a $Woof. Your dog's more bearish than Proudhon!

Remind the dog that more bitcoin income means you can afford the fancy dog food. Remind her that according to the AAFCO, vague terms in the bargain kibble ingredients like "rendered bone meal" tend to mean unscrupulous things like "euthanized dogs and cats with pentobarbitol ground up and bathed in acid then added to pet food for dogs and cats." In no time your dog will be barking for $1000 by May. 


... Can we take a similar approach with Proudhon?

[zoinky]

I think were few years away from the growth a majority of the people in this thread are predicting.  We will definitely see some sort of crazy volatile event by this time next year in which a lot of people will lose a lot of money. 

[Transisto]

I predict that a year from now the bitcoin price will be in the quadruple digits.  I just want to enshrine this prediction in its own thread.  I hope somebody remembers to dig this up a year from now.  In the meantime I hope to take advantage of the current bitcoin bubble.  My the odds be ever in my favor.

[foo]

i seem to remember something about extrapolation... nah, not important. I'll be retiring in 6 months at age 24, folks. XKCD can go suck it.

 +1

[XXthetimeisnowXX]

Hm, let's say $50. After a bubble, a crash, and some recovery. And $500 by 2015/04/05

Nah. By 2015 we're either established or dead. Bitcoin has exploded so much in the media lately, it's not likely to simply fade away. In the next few months the big money will have to decide whether it chooses to move in or not. The bad news is that big money is notoriously fearful. The good news: It only takes one, the rest will follow.

INDEED! 

[theowalpott]

Just to get my guess in: I'm gonna estimate it'll be trading for $14.43 at some point on that day. Eventually Proudhon is going to be right!

[Wekkel]

I say $250 and stable.

[mp420]

Hm, let's say $50. After a bubble, a crash, and some recovery. And $500 by 2015/04/05

Nah. By 2015 we're either established or dead. Bitcoin has exploded so much in the media lately, it's not likely to simply fade away. In the next few months the big money will have to decide whether it chooses to move in or not. The bad news is that big money is notoriously fearful. The good news: It only takes one, the rest will follow.

Back in 2011, when the price shot above $10, I was convinced Bitcoin would never drop below $4 again. Yet down it came.

I see single digits as a possibility even now. The market sentiment changed a lot in late 2011. It can turn around again.

[Newscastix]

Hm, let's say $50. After a bubble, a crash, and some recovery. And $500 by 2015/04/05

Nah. By 2015 we're either established or dead. Bitcoin has exploded so much in the media lately, it's not likely to simply fade away. In the next few months the big money will have to decide whether it chooses to move in or not. The bad news is that big money is notoriously fearful. The good news: It only takes one, the rest will follow.

Back in 2011, when the price shot above $10, I was convinced Bitcoin would never drop below $4 again. Yet down it came.

I see single digits as a possibility even now. The market sentiment changed a lot in late 2011. It can turn around again.

My take:

Back then it was an even smaller market, drastic changes can happen fast...
Today everyone knows bitcoin is for real and is waiting for cheap coins, any crash towards 50 or below and people will be buying like mad...

Maybe i'm dead wrong...

[Luckybit]

Your maths is wrong.

It's approximate. Calculation method is a spreadsheet that multiplies the cell above by 1.05.

Can you take a screenshot

[Luckybit]

I think were few years away from the growth a majority of the people in this thread are predicting.  We will definitely see some sort of crazy volatile event by this time next year in which a lot of people will lose a lot of money. 

How can you lose money if you don't SELL OUT?

[TheJuice]

Its quite funny reading this thread and shows how drastically the sentiment has changed from a year ago. The 2012 version washumorous in retrospect because the highest guess was a magnitude off. In this thread, save a prediction everyone is anticipating around a 10-100x increase.

in a year we will read this and I hope Im wrong but my guess is we will be disappointes.


for fun: $4.2 per mBTC.