Short Term Prediction - Bitcoin Price Increase Today

[BitSlut69]

I posted this in the Newbies section, then I realized I just passed the requirements to post elsewhere.

Look at the front page of bitcoincharts.com.

The network hash-rate is dropping and difficulty is set to increase by 15% in a couple of hours. The price is at $138 right now. Tonight it will probably be $145-$150.

What do others think?

[mccorvic]

I find this plausible.

[sgbett]

The charts would have you beleive this wedge is gonna be broken out of one way or another.

[jackofspades]

Its a good theory but BTC is hard to predict to within a range of 5 usd.

It also tends to go up around 7-9pm (EST) probably because thats when China
is waking up and first thing a lot of people do is buy BTC.

[sgbett]

I'm not a trader, I don't try and trade charts, but I watch them a lot and there are definitely patterns to how BTC price moves. The problem is that the patterns themselves rarely give you an idea of direction... or timing!

if true HFT comes then I think the patterns will dissolve, but for now the action seems relatively unsophisticated, within a larger framework of 'nothing like this has ver existed before'!

[BitSlut69]

Difficulty increase occurred and the price is at $141 already. My original estimate may have been a bit low...

[sgbett]

There she blows.

[XXthetimeisnowXX]

Its a good theory but BTC is hard to predict to within a range of 5 usd.

It also tends to go up around 7-9pm (EST) probably because thats when China
is waking up and first thing a lot of people do is buy BTC.

 but china would be waking up earlyer than that right, if its 9est then its about noon then its about 10am in china. ya that sounds right. never mind, but if i see a jump at 1am mst or 3am est for you then who is buying then? India? maybe Europe

[BitcoinAshley]

[...] because thats when China is waking up and first thing a lot of people do is buy BTC.

Haha, it's true; first thing I do (not in China, though, lol) when I wake up is check to see if my fiat made it to the exchange, and if so, BUY BUY BUY. This morning the fiat still hadn't arrived and, not wanting to miss an opportunity (it's obvious another rally is starting soon) I drove to the bank first thing to make a cash deposit to an exchange.

I remember some mornings last week waking up and realizing I made more money while sleeping that night than I made in an entire month of working my regular job. A lot of that was thanks to litecoin and of course I threw half of it back into Bitcoin because if you think bitcoin is volatile, altcoins will have you staying up all night every night tearing your hair out.

[BitSlut69]

OK, so the hash-rate graph at bitcoincharts.com is an estimate. The estimate has gone down in the last few days. So the hash rate has probably gone down as well.

Plus the next difficulty change is a slight decrease, which is because the hash rate has decreased.

I understand there is a lot of variance and in a few days or a week the hash rate and difficulty will probably be back up. Even if they're down it doesn't matter, everything averages to about 6 blocks per hour.

I have been talking about a short term window though. I am saying that I've noticed the variance and we just so happen to be at hash rate and difficulty levels that will result in less than 6 blocks per hour, for the time being. This could change at any moment.