Nfl plays for the week of Sunday 11/20

[Rubberduckie]

With the lines coming out for next week I wanted to get a play in
early just in case the line moves as the week goes on.

Houston +6 over Oakland


I am not a huge fan of brock as the QB of the texans but wow this line is
over inflated! Oakland isn't even at home as this game is in a neutral site in
Mexico.

I don't expect any home field edge here as there will be plenty of fans of a texas
team and Oakland. This line is just to high. I think -3 would of been fair so getting
an extra 3 points! I'm in....


A's always I appreciate anyone's thoughts/ plays for the week and if I have any more plays
as the week goes on I will add them here.


 

[Junko]

Hey, Bud, don't you usually post this topic in the "Gambling Discussion" section? I was looking/waiting for it there bc I too wanted to post a couple of early picks I made to beat possible line movements. I just happened to find it here by chance.

Anyway, Good Luck on your Houston pick. I'm not betting that game - at least not yet. I may decide to play that one later, idk. Game time decision maybe, depending on how my other picks go and what the line is by then. I agree with you, 6 pts seems generous, but then again Oakland proved they were legit with that convincing win over Denver and they don't seem to have any problems playing away from home. They are also coming off a bye week so that doesn't hurt.


Miami (PK) @ Los Angeles

I jumped on this as soon as I could. I like this one for a number of reasons. Miami is playing back to back away games on the West coast, but they beat San Diego last week. LA's defense is stout, but their offense is struggling to put points on the board. Miami's run game is solid with Ajayi. The biggest factor though is that LA's rookie QB Goff will be getting his first start. Miami's defense have to be licking their chops right now. And considering how the AFC playoff picture is beginning to take shape, Miami can't afford to fall too far behind the pace that the AFC West teams are setting. Miami should be looking to take advantage by bringing the heat.


Tennessee (+3) @ Indianapolis

I picked the Titans mostly based on a gut feeling which is based on how overall better they seem to look compared to Indy. Mariotta, despite not having star receivers is playing well and DeMarco Murray is running like a man on a mission. Yes, the Colts are playing at home coming off a bye and have owned the Titans having beaten them in their last 10 meetings, including 4 weeks ago in Tennessee. Not to mention, when Andrew Luck and T.Y. Hilton are clicking, look out. Shit, why did I pick the Titans again? Oh well, too late now, my bet is already booked lol.


I may have one or two more picks later this week, but that's it for now.

[Rubberduckie]

hey junko I like those picks!  I cant argue with your logic


I really want the steelers this week at ML to just win so I am playing

BC (college ML) with steelers ML  -131 money line parlay.

I am also taking lina panthers tonight ml parlay with steelers ml.


Figure its a way to get the game tonight covered with steelers money line.

I don't love carolina so just a small bet but I have to think this is a make it or
break it game. Also short week games always favors the home team.

[vella85]

I had the Panthers to win tonight and for a moment there I thought they were not going to hang on for the win and loose again like they did last week. But thankfully they help on for the win lol This win now gives me some money to play with for Sunday's games where I like a few teams to win.

Hey Junko,

The Titans may cover the point spread but for me I think the Colts win and start to make a run for the playoffs. I can't believe currently all the money has come for the Titans which is fine with me as I have been holding off putting on the Colts hoping they blow out some more which they have from early on @1.55 to now @1.70 depending on which sportsbook you bet with.

[CoolJakeB]

The two most intriguing and best-contested games of Week 11 in the NFL have to be between the Arizona Cardinals vs. the Minnesota Vikings and the Philadelphia Eagles vs. the Seattle Seahawks. There are a lot of playoff implications in the Cardinals/Vikings game, with the Vikings trying to save their season, losing their last four games after starting the season 5-0. The second game between the Eagles/Seahawks are two playoff contenders and a possible playoff matchup in a few months. I favor the Vikings and the Eagles for the upset.

[vella85]

That's it I'm loading up on the Colts as the money keeps coming for the Titans at the money line 78% of the money is on the Titans winning this game and now the Colts have blown out even more which I am now jumping on @1.75 I know it's only 5 cents lol but it all adds up when you put some good money on it.

Also I think the Patriots win as most people are most likely picking but they have been blowing out a little in price at the money line from 1.10 to now 1.15 and Vegas has them at 64% at the money line so money has been coming for the 49ERS. There is some good value in this weeks games and it could make for a nice parlay. Still working on some other games but I really like the Patriots and Colts.

[Junko]

Good call on picking Carolina, guys. Gratz! I didn't have the confidence in either team to bet that game.

@Rubberduckie, I'm with you on Pittsburgh. Big Ben looks like he's fully recovered from his surgery and if the Steelrs can put up 30 points on the Cowboys, they should beat Cleveland pretty handily. That line is up to Pitt -8 now, however. Even though Cleveland is winless, they've been able to keep a number of games close this season to a degree. So like you, I'm going to do a moneyline parlay with Pittsburgh:

 Parlay: Pittsburgh (ML) @ Cleveland + Miami (ML) @ Los Angeles


@Vella85, Yeah, mate. As soon as I hit the submit/confirm bet button, I was like, "Wait. what did I just do? Shit." lol. Like I said, even with all that info I gathered, there was just something in my gut that made me want to take the Titans +3. And like you said, with the money coming in on the Titans, looks like you can get good value taking the Colts having waited.

@CoolJakeB, Vikes/Cards match is very intriguing. Like you said, Minnesota, despite the hot start is fading, but they are still in the playoff hunt. But they are going to have to right the ship if they are going to keep their hopes alive. Seattle vs Philadelphia is the game of the week. Two tough, stingy defenses also with playoff implications.


Summary of my picks so far:

Miami (PK) @ Los Angeles
Tennessee (+3) @ Indianapolis
Parlay: Pittsburgh (ML) + Miami (ML)

[vella85]

Good call on picking Carolina, guys. Gratz! I didn't have the confidence in either team to bet that game.

@Rubberduckie, I'm with you on Pittsburgh. Big Ben looks like he's fully recovered from his surgery and if the Steelrs can put up 30 points on the Cowboys, they should beat Cleveland pretty handily. That line is up to Pitt -8 now, however. Even though Cleveland is winless, they've been able to keep a number of games close this season to a degree. So like you, I'm going to do a moneyline parlay with Pittsburgh:

 Parlay: Pittsburgh (ML) @ Cleveland + Miami (ML) @ Los Angeles


@Vella85, Yeah, mate. As soon as I hit the submit/confirm bet button, I was like, "Wait. what did I just do? Shit." lol. Like I said, even with all that info I gathered, there was just something in my gut that made me want to take the Titans +3. And like you said, with the money coming in on the Titans, looks like you can get good value taking the Colts having waited.

@CoolJakeB, Vikes/Cards match is very intriguing. Like you said, Minnesota, despite the hot start is fading, but they are still in the playoff hunt. But they are going to have to right the ship if they are going to keep their hopes alive. Seattle vs Philadelphia is the game of the week. Two tough, stingy defenses also with playoff implications.


Summary of my picks so far:

Miami (PK) @ Los Angeles
Tennessee (+3) @ Indianapolis
Parlay: Pittsburgh (ML) + Miami (ML)

Bad luck mate on the Titans bet, I won big on the Colts winning at the money line. I couldn't believe they blew out to $1.75 and they even got out to $1.77 but I put them on at $1.75 and won big. I also had the Vikings and Cowboys as my locks and also I got my parlay bet on the Colts, Vikings, Cowboys, Giants and Lions all at the money line.

What a difference a week makes lol this time last week I only had 1 winner and this week I got 3/3 plus my parlay.

[th3nolo]

Good call on picking Carolina, guys. Gratz! I didn't have the confidence in either team to bet that game.

@Rubberduckie, I'm with you on Pittsburgh. Big Ben looks like he's fully recovered from his surgery and if the Steelrs can put up 30 points on the Cowboys, they should beat Cleveland pretty handily. That line is up to Pitt -8 now, however. Even though Cleveland is winless, they've been able to keep a number of games close this season to a degree. So like you, I'm going to do a moneyline parlay with Pittsburgh:

 Parlay: Pittsburgh (ML) @ Cleveland + Miami (ML) @ Los Angeles


@Vella85, Yeah, mate. As soon as I hit the submit/confirm bet button, I was like, "Wait. what did I just do? Shit." lol. Like I said, even with all that info I gathered, there was just something in my gut that made me want to take the Titans +3. And like you said, with the money coming in on the Titans, looks like you can get good value taking the Colts having waited.

@CoolJakeB, Vikes/Cards match is very intriguing. Like you said, Minnesota, despite the hot start is fading, but they are still in the playoff hunt. But they are going to have to right the ship if they are going to keep their hopes alive. Seattle vs Philadelphia is the game of the week. Two tough, stingy defenses also with playoff implications.


Summary of my picks so far:

Miami (PK) @ Los Angeles
Tennessee (+3) @ Indianapolis
Parlay: Pittsburgh (ML) + Miami (ML)

Q3 and Rams are winning the match for one touchdown the game is 7-0 the best way to bet this game was under 40.

[Rubberduckie]

hey junko I like those picks!  I cant argue with your logic


I really want the steelers this week at ML to just win so I am playing

BC (college ML) with steelers ML  -131 money line parlay.

I am also taking lina panthers tonight ml parlay with steelers ml.


Figure its a way to get the game tonight covered with steelers money line.

I don't love carolina so just a small bet but I have to think this is a make it or
break it game. Also short week games always favors the home team.

nice hit here, I'll take both parlays!!

I am on the fins also +1, I forgot to post here when I bet it. Stinks because rams can't move
the ball but neither can the fins (sigh) hopefully can get a TD

[vella85]

Well done on the Dolphins picks, that was a close finish to the game with the Dolphins scoring 2 touchdowns in 5 minutes. This was a much better week betting on the NFL compared to last weeks train wreck lol. The Redskins/Packers game is a close one and looks like it will go down to the wire, both teams need a win to keep their playoff chances alive.

[Junko]

Bad luck mate on the Titans bet, I won big on the Colts winning at the money line. I couldn't believe they blew out to $1.75 and they even got out to $1.77 but I put them on at $1.75 and won big. I also had the Vikings and Cowboys as my locks and also I got my parlay bet on the Colts, Vikings, Cowboys, Giants and Lions all at the money line.

What a difference a week makes lol this time last week I only had 1 winner and this week I got 3/3 plus my parlay.

Yeah, I had a sense of impending doom the moment I submitted that bet, lol. I decided to go with my gut instead of what the numbers and research told me. Lesson learned.

And holy shit, looks like you won huge this weekend. Nice. Congrats, mate!

hey junko I like those picks!  I cant argue with your logic


I really want the steelers this week at ML to just win so I am playing

BC (college ML) with steelers ML  -131 money line parlay.

I am also taking lina panthers tonight ml parlay with steelers ml.


Figure its a way to get the game tonight covered with steelers money line.

I don't love carolina so just a small bet but I have to think this is a make it or
break it game. Also short week games always favors the home team.

nice hit here, I'll take both parlays!!

I am on the fins also +1, I forgot to post here when I bet it. Stinks because rams can't move
the ball but neither can the fins (sigh) hopefully can get a TD

Great picks and Congrats! Pittsburgh ML was definitely a good parlay leg this week.


Wow, you guys did awesome. Thank god the Fins pulled it out at the end, otherwise I would have been totally sunk with my picks this weekend. As it turned out, I did pretty ok also despite stepping in shit with my Titans pick.

Haven't looked at any lines yet, but looking forward to Week 12.

Edit: Also, still haven't decided on whether or not I want to make a play on tonight's Raiders-Texans game. If I do, I'll post it. I'll prolly have to parlay the result + O/U.

[vella85]

Bad luck mate on the Titans bet, I won big on the Colts winning at the money line. I couldn't believe they blew out to $1.75 and they even got out to $1.77 but I put them on at $1.75 and won big. I also had the Vikings and Cowboys as my locks and also I got my parlay bet on the Colts, Vikings, Cowboys, Giants and Lions all at the money line.

What a difference a week makes lol this time last week I only had 1 winner and this week I got 3/3 plus my parlay.

Yeah, I had a sense of impending doom the moment I submitted that bet, lol. I decided to go with my gut instead of what the numbers and research told me. Lesson learned.

And holy shit, looks like you won huge this weekend. Nice. Congrats, mate!

hey junko I like those picks!  I cant argue with your logic


I really want the steelers this week at ML to just win so I am playing

BC (college ML) with steelers ML  -131 money line parlay.

I am also taking lina panthers tonight ml parlay with steelers ml.


Figure its a way to get the game tonight covered with steelers money line.

I don't love carolina so just a small bet but I have to think this is a make it or
break it game. Also short week games always favors the home team.

nice hit here, I'll take both parlays!!

I am on the fins also +1, I forgot to post here when I bet it. Stinks because rams can't move
the ball but neither can the fins (sigh) hopefully can get a TD

Great picks and Congrats! Pittsburgh ML was definitely a good parlay leg this week.


Wow, you guys did awesome. Thank god the Fins pulled it out at the end, otherwise I would have been totally sunk with my picks this weekend. As it turned out, I did pretty ok also despite stepping in shit with my Titans pick.

Haven't looked at any lines yet, but looking forward to Week 12.

Edit: Also, still haven't decided on whether or not I want to make a play on tonight's Raiders-Texans game. If I do, I'll post it. I'll prolly have to parlay the result + O/U.

You know what I think you Rubberduckie and myself make a great team when it comes to NFL weekly picks as we at least get winners each week. And most of the time it's different picks which is even better as we see different teams that can win or cover the point spread because lets face it everyone can just pick the same winners but not with us lol I can't believe how quick this season has gone as we are nearly at the playoffs. I just hope 1 of the 3 teams I have winning the Super Bowl makes it, either the Colts, Giants or Vikings but more so the Colts as I'm set to win 10k from a $100 investment if they happen to make it and win.

Do any of you guys have any early picks for the Super Bowl?

[Rubberduckie]

so tough to call the superbowl cause its almost like this year there really isnt
any "dominate" teams.

Obviously patriots and seahawks are good but I feel like any team can beat anyone
this year. Its kinda exciting. I would say the Patriots but their defense is pretty shotty.
I would say seahawks but they lack offense on the road.. I would say steelers but they
have lost some easy one.

Its honestly think its a crap shoot.  Gun to head I take Pats vs seahawks.

[vella85]

Thank you Raiders for beating the Texans as this win by the Raiders keeps my Colts winning the AFC South division alive.I know it will be tough for the Colts to win the division with some tough games ahead but I think they still can win which would also keep my Super Bowl bet alive. The AFC South is starting to get exciting as 3 teams have a chance at making the playoffs right now.

[Junko]

I decided not to make a play on the Raiders-Texans game. I was too lazy/occupied with something else. Meh.

As far as Superbowl picks. I didn't make any at the beginning of the season. Right now If I were to predict, it would be New England vs. either Seattle or Dallas. It may be too early to call it, but Dallas is looking like it may be having a magical year. I think Oakland has a chance also with the way they are playing right now. Though, I think they would lose in the AFC playoffs vs New England in a shootout. Seattle just recently beat New England in New England so... If I had to pick a Super Bowl winner today, I'd go with Seattle, especially if Rawls turns out to be Beast Mode 2.0.

As for NFL Week 12, looks like a lot of movement in a bunch of the early lines already.

[vella85]

Your not wrong about the lines moving, The Colts are now paying over $3 for the win and the line has moved from -3 for the Steelers to now -9 points WOW!!!! I know Andrew Luck may be out this week with concussion but that is a big move. Also Indy are playing at home and if that line moves out even more I'll be loading up on the Colts and I think I'll also take them at the money line if it gets out even further. I think Dallas wins as well but not sure with the Vikings/Lions game which I think will be close and is a tough game to call but if I had to pick I am leaning more towards the Lions at the moment.

[Rubberduckie]

wow that Houston loss was brutal lol.

Up 7 late in the game and lose by 7....

even tie game at the 19 of the raiders to take the lead to win outright the coach
challenges on fourth down after the third down was even worst of a spot and he
should of challenged there. Then he punts from the 40 on fourth and 4 when his
defense couldn't stop anyone....

bad result but good bet. It happens

Breaking down this weeks card now.

[Junko]

...bad result but good bet. It happens...

I feel you, man. And that's how you have to look at it if you are a long term sports bettor. One can't be results oriented. It's all about the process: putting in the time, doing the work, analyzing and weighing the different pieces of information, finding the value bets and making the best informed + football instinctive (or whatever your sport is) play. If one does that every time, they increase their chances of making profit over the long term.

[bitcoinmaster44]

Happy thanksgiving everyone!