why the inconsitencys in speculation.

[XXthetimeisnowXX]

ok I get it that there are bulls and then there are bears. some say up some say down.

but why are there full on threads that have graphs and out right "proof" that it is going to go up for sure and same for the bears, graphs "proof" and all that jazz.

this weekend seams poised to be some sort of big change. what do you think?

[1714864599]

1714864599

[NamelessOne]

Because that is how humanity works, lol. No one actually KNOWS anything with certainty. People are just making educated guesses and creating charts based upon the available data. Just like in all fields people disagree. 

[Dargo]

Because graphs don't prove jack. Technical analysis is useful for developing a trading game plan, and can at times give you a direction that is more probable than the other, but that's it. I think that probability favors further upside, because we have a trend that way that is holding nicely, but down is quite possible too. 

[Elwar]

Graphs are great for proving what happened.

I have a graph of what has happened for the past 3 months:

     /
    / 
   /
^

Now take that graph and throw it away.

The price will either do this:

_/

or this:

_
  \

Or should I have better graphs to make it more believable?

[ElectricMucus]

There are either Bulls or Bears, nobody wants or thinks Bitcoin will or should be stable for extended periods of time.

Food for thought.

[Qoheleth]

There are either Bulls or Bears, nobody wants or thinks Bitcoin will or should be stable for extended periods of time.

I think conflating "what X thinks will happen" and "what X wants to happen" is awfully dangerous.

What I want to happen has nothing at all to do with the price of one bitcoin in your favorite national currency; it has to do with the price of one bitcoin in peanut butter or one bitcoin in minutes of labor becoming a meaningful question. If $2 per coin is sufficient for that, I'm as happy with $2 per coin as I am with $200 per coin.

I don't think the BTC exchange rate will be flat because there's lots of speculators running around trading a new asset that nobody fully understands, in conditions where the fundamentals have been shifting a lot recently. That's just foetal markets - people haven't yet figured out what this thing is worth.

They're very different questions.

[ElectricMucus]

There are either Bulls or Bears, nobody wants or thinks Bitcoin will or should be stable for extended periods of time.

I think conflating "what X thinks will happen" and "what X wants to happen" is awfully dangerous.

What I want to happen has nothing at all to do with the price of one bitcoin in your favorite national currency; it has to do with the price of one bitcoin in peanut butter or one bitcoin in minutes of labor becoming a meaningful question. If $2 per coin is sufficient for that, I'm as happy with $2 per coin as I am with $200 per coin.

I don't think the BTC exchange rate will be flat because there's lots of speculators running around trading a new asset that nobody fully understands, in conditions where the fundamentals have been shifting a lot recently. That's just foetal markets - people haven't yet figured out what this thing is worth.

They're very different questions.

I used to think alot like that too. Keep at it and you probably will end up exactly as disillusioned as me.

The problem is it is never enough. Bitcoins could be traded for a million dollar and they still wouldn't be able to be used like a real currency. There simply aren't enough factors to increase velocity to healthy levels.
There might have been, in the original design, but since the block size is more or less to be increased not any more. I don't know if that would have been enough, but now there is simply no way.

[dree12]

Graphs are great for proving what happened.

I have a graph of what has happened for the past 3 months:

     /
    / 
   /
^

Now take that graph and throw it away.

The price will either do this:

_/

or this:

_
  \

Or should I have better graphs to make it more believable?

What about this?

______

Or this?

_/\  /\
   \/  \/

[FreeMoney]

So the question is "Why do people think they are right when actually they are wrong?"?

I imagine you'll get some answers from people who think they are right, but I'd worry that maybe they are wrong.

[XXthetimeisnowXX]

Graphs are great for proving what happened.

I have a graph of what has happened for the past 3 months:

     /
    / 
   /
^

Now take that graph and throw it away.

The price will either do this:

_/

or this:

_
  \

Or should I have better graphs to make it more believable?

hahaha! siriously throw some color on that for gods sakes then and only then will i belive it!!! 

[XXthetimeisnowXX]

So the question is "Why do people think they are right when actually they are wrong?"?

I imagine you'll get some answers from people who think they are right, but I'd worry that maybe they are wrong.

indeed why so wrong....or " I TOLD YOU SO!"

I think the bears love the I TOLD YOU SO more than the bulls.

the bulls are like "sweet i was right and now im rich....to busy doing the happy dance to post an i told you so''

[BIGMERVE]

It wouldn't be speculation if it was consistant.

[tiberiandusk]

Nobody is psychic.

[Bit_Happy]

Greed and Fear:
Once you understand Greed and Fear, you are making progress.   

[Bit_Happy]

Nobody is psychic.

Are you sure?

[tiberiandusk]

Nobody is psychic.

Are you sure?

Yes.

[XXthetimeisnowXX]

Nobody is psychic.

Are you sure?

Yes.

good talk haha 

[Kazu]

Nobody is psychic.

Are you sure?

Yes.

Wouldn't that make you psychic