Do you think Bitmain make better than 16nm in future? I think no.

[QuintLeo]

What's sure is that they won't go further than GPU manufacturers, so if those only passed the 14nm mark, we'll wait a long time before we see 10nm or so.

but a better 14-16nm is possible.

I think maybe an improved s9+  next spring or an s11  but either more of the same chips on a lower clock.  or a better chip that is still 14-16nm


to see a 10nm  maybe 2020 at best.

 I can see the possibility of somewhat better than the current BM1387 being possible, but I doubt it's going to be a major improvement like Bitmain pulled off on the 28nm generation.
 30-50% better efficiency should be possible, but given that the 14/16 nm node chips aren't running at much lower voltages than 28nm was capable of, there's some serious limit on how much more efficiency is available to achieve.

 We've already had at least one early 14/16nm design that proved to be little or no better than the best 28nm designs (LK-1401, the apparently-abandoned Innosilicon A3 might be another given the final efficiency ratings on the A4) and BW already claimed some major improvements going to the LK-1402.

 Under 0.10 watts/GH? Possibly. Under 0.06? Looking MIGHTY iffy at best, even the Bitfury demo chip didn't manage that at it's lowest power setting.

 I'm a bit supprised we haven't seen SOI move down to the newer node range before now - did I miss something, or did SoI completely skip the 22nm genration?

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[Exoskeleton]

I think we will see something new in 2017 that improves on the S9 by about 30% and sells for more than it should. This will finally be the generation of gear that will stick around for about 2 years. But I think the diff will keep going up regardless as the big miners try to squeeze each other out. In the end, in about a year or two, I don't think anyone anywhere will be making a profit.

And yes the miners will mine at a slight loss for quite a while because of the original capital invested in "data centers" and such. They won't all just walk away the first year of a negative return.

[Exoskeleton]

I think this is a great opportunity to use the S9, I believe this tool will survive good for 4 years into the future (halving day by 2020). I will soon order 1 unit S9 to complete 3 units of S7.

Now that btc is on the rise and almost at $900 I don't think the S9 will last long. We will see the S9 pumped out to the max soon until its at $400 a unit new like the S7 was ground down to. There will be unlimited sales at this price.

[QuintLeo]

I think this is a great opportunity to use the S9, I believe this tool will survive good for 4 years into the future (halving day by 2020). I will soon order 1 unit S9 to complete 3 units of S7.

Now that btc is on the rise and almost at $900 I don't think the S9 will last long. We will see the S9 pumped out to the max soon until its at $400 a unit new like the S7 was ground down to. There will be unlimited sales at this price.

 BTC on the rise = HIGHER profitability on all gear and even the S5 might be profitable again if your electric is cheap enough. The S9 will be profitable LONGER if BTC price keeps climbing (which doesn't look likely for the short run, it's already dropped back into the mid-$800s).

 The limit on S9 production appears to be foundry space availability, and I don't see it dropping in price much for a while given it's competiton has the same "can't get lots of production of the CHIPS" issue.

[philipma1957]

I think this is a great opportunity to use the S9, I believe this tool will survive good for 4 years into the future (halving day by 2020). I will soon order 1 unit S9 to complete 3 units of S7.

Now that btc is on the rise and almost at $900 I don't think the S9 will last long. We will see the S9 pumped out to the max soon until its at $400 a unit new like the S7 was ground down to. There will be unlimited sales at this price.

they have zero need to do that.

they make a fortune with hashnest.
how many of the s7s below  are really s9's?

they earn money on them if all are s7s.  so when an s7 dies they stick in an s9  and they earn more.
as long as hash nest does well they do not need to make a better s9

oh coins are way up over 930

[akaros]

It is a year I've been thinking about this, so far has something changed? Do you think they working on 10nm or so?

What about Bitfury?

[CryptoHodler30]

i suspect they are, Ebang is working with Samsung for their 10nm device that is supposed to be shipped at the end of Jan. Though, i am no expert in the semi-conductor profession and there are plenty of members on this site that do have the experience, so id love to hear their feedback as an update. I was reading for a while that NO company would put out 10nm miners for a while because 10nm process is only used in low power devices but i guess things have changed since ebang is doing it.

[dlezama]

I think of course they have a roadmap and plans for upgrading their process. If they are smart they already have developed technology we don't know about yet. They can use internally for better profits in their farm, and most important be ready in case a competitor comes up with an "S9 killer". They have no rush pushing it to the market though, the S9 is still king, but it would be stupid to just take a nap and wait for a competitor to push them out.

Also: What is Bitmain doing with the new 12nm chips they're buying in 2018?

[QuintLeo]

50/50, given the LOW volume, that those "12nm" chips are going into Bitmain's new "deep learning AI" related project.

For reference, all of the "12nm" processes that has been announced to date are NOT on a "new node", they are 14/16nm node process refinements and the "12nm" is a marketing tag.

Similarly, the announced 7nm node stuff out of TSMC and GF *appear* to be about the same level on actual gate feature sizes as Intel's 10nm node (not sure where Samsung's 10nm node sits yet, but I suspect it's close to Intel's).

Given that every 14/16nm node production line is running at full capacity, I have no idea why TSMC and GF are worrying about "getting the most business" via markating exaggerations.


Anyone else remember "Web 2.0"?
I am starting to sense a similar stench of "Microsoft Marketing" getting even more contageous....