There will be blood.

[flug]

(a great watch that articulates my feelings well is the recent Adam Curtis doc called 'All Watched Over By Machines Of Loving Grace')

+1

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Uz2j3BhL47c

[1714182578]

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[xavier]

Bloodshed will indeed ensure.

Why am I posting this instead of just trading on it I dont know.

Government will move in on Bitcoin in 12-18months from now

Until then the price of BTC will go up as more services are developed for it and use increases, due to its natural competitive advantage over PayPal and other online money services

The bloodshed will then start.

First, MtGox will be shut down; their bank account will be frozen and their business & owner in Japan seized

All other bank accounts involved in exchanging Bitcoins will be frozen & similar fates will occur to their proprieters

At that point demand for BTC will be reduced because of reduced liquidity

BTC will go way down in price

BTC will still have value from here on and be used but only for black market goods, it will not reach mainstream appeal as long as governments oppose it

Any new exchanges will be moved on and have their bank accounts frozen

People will still mine BTC a long time from now but it will not reach mainstream appeal.

Until governments move in however the price will go up, so all buy in on the MT Gox and enjoy the party! Just no real prediction when its going to end, but governments usually move slowly. Expect alot more press about Bitcoin and publicity in the mean time which will also serve to drive up the price

[jatajuta]

3) Countries are controlled by central banks:
First off, this isn't true. Second off, who cares?

I care.

Your lack of interest in who makes your money and how the process works is the reason why we still live in a feudalist plutocracy.

You just need 2 hours to fully understand that what you said is totally bs.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=swkq2E8mswI

[Anonymous]

At that point demand for BTC will be reduced because of reduced liquidity

BTC will go way down in price

Hogwash. Look at drug prohibition and you will see this won't be the case.

[justusranvier]

Government will move in on Bitcoin in 12-18months from now

Until then the price of BTC will go up as more services are developed for it and use increases, due to its natural competitive advantage over PayPal and other online money services

The bloodshed will then start.

First, MtGox will be shut down; their bank account will be frozen and their business & owner in Japan seized

All other bank accounts involved in exchanging Bitcoins will be frozen & similar fates will occur to their proprieters

At that point demand for BTC will be reduced because of reduced liquidity

12-18 of growth at the present rate will mean it's too late for governments to stop it.

The demand for exchanges will be lower because people will actually spend their coins rather than just trade them for other currencies. You won't need an online exchange because everybody will know someone who will give them cash for Bitcoins and vice versa.

[flug]

.. everybody will know someone who will give them cash for Bitcoins and vice versa.

+1

Good mobile apps for exchanging bitcoins seems to me to be one of the keys for the success of Bitcoin, enabling easy exchange of bitcoins in the BTC<->Cash market, and keeping it out of reach of govt.

[Coma]

First, MtGox will be shut down; their bank account will be frozen and their business & owner in Japan seized

All other bank accounts involved in exchanging Bitcoins will be frozen & similar fates will occur to their proprieters

That doesn't seem to be unlikely. But I guess laws needs to be pushed towards it. And I guess few legislators would defend Bitcoin.
But what would be the reason? Ilegal trade? I guess Bitcoin may be valued without exchange for dollars. It can be used with an equivalent nominal value for goods and services without the possibility of goverment intervention.

btw, great posts guys, keep them coming.

[lonestranger]

Good mobile apps for exchanging bitcoins seems to me to be one of the keys for the success of Bitcoin, enabling easy exchange of bitcoins in the BTC<->Cash market, and keeping it out of reach of govt.

I can't envision being able to transact in bitcoins using a mobile app in an environment where theyve been declared illegal and not being traced.  Can you?

[lonestranger]

Once bitcoins are declared illegal, all of the statist chickenshits--and there's a lot of them on this forum--will pee their pants and sell out. This will hurt the price for sure. But there will remain a market for bitcoin because a) it's time has come and there will be too much demand and b) there will be a surge of interest in online anonymity, which will become much more common than it is now. (This will be difficult for mobile apps, btw.)

[Scientician!]

Once bitcoins are declared illegal, all of the statist chickenshits--and there's a lot of them on this forum--will pee their pants and sell out. This will hurt the price for sure. But there will remain a market for bitcoin because a) it's time has come and there will be too much demand and b) there will be a surge of interest in online anonymity, which will become much more common than it is now. (This will be difficult for mobile apps, btw.)

It's once exchanging BTC for fiat is declared illegal that most people will exit the bitcoin "market".. which is just as well anyway. The sooner the speculators leave, the sooner there will be a majority exchanging BTC directly for
goods and services instead of trade ecxhanges whose aim is to accumulate fiat.

As far a bloody armed rebellion over BTC? Sounds like a Randian Libertard's idyllic wet dream, and therefore a reality which is exceedingly unlikely to ever come to pass. Bitcoin (or something very like it) has a niche in  world commerce for the foreseeable future, but that place is not likely as a catalyst of revolution of any kind.

[Jaime Frontero]

The parasites can't collect taxes on money they can't see.

You read a lot of Ayn Rand, don't you?

Meh. I can respect some of her positions but mostly she was an overly-pragmatic, pompous bitch.

You named yourself after her most famous steaming pile of hypocritical bullshit.

Let me guess - you're a teenager with fairly well off parents who thinks he's figured it all out with the sheer brilliance of his own sparkling intellect.

Your sneering narrative voice is a dead giveaway.

how odd.

do you know, i'm unable to detect even the faintest trace of a sneer in the narrative voice of this post?

[caveden]

First, MtGox will be shut down; their bank account will be frozen and their business & owner in Japan seized

All other bank accounts involved in exchanging Bitcoins will be frozen & similar fates will occur to their proprieters

At that point demand for BTC will be reduced because of reduced liquidity

BTC will go way down in price

I am not sure it will happen as you describe, particularly the price crash.
I understand it is not appropriate to compare bitcoins with drugs, but you can compare for example with gold. When it was forbidden in US, did its global price dumped too strongly?

And such "war on bitcoins" could work as a strong publicity for bitcoins, increasing the demand.

Also, let's not forget that not all governments in the world are so dependent of their monetary monopoly. Some don't even have such monopoly. And it's not all governments which impose revenue taxes either. These governments wouldn't have such a strong incentive to ban bitcoins. The technology might flourish in these places.

And finally, if the retaliation really starts in the US, there might be some anti-american governments out there (Iran?) that would embrace the technology just for the pleasure of making US government life harder.

[caveden]

Any new exchanges will be moved on and have their bank accounts frozen

An exchange doesn't need to have a bank account, it can operate like OTC, bitmarket.eu etc.

[FreeMoney]

It's once exchanging BTC for fiat is declared illegal that most people will exit the bitcoin "market".. which is just as well anyway. 

I don't get it. Most people will wait until it is illegal to trade in order to trade?

The law abiding citizens will have to just delete their wallets if it is illegal to trade.

[Scientician!]

The parasites can't collect taxes on money they can't see.

You read a lot of Ayn Rand, don't you?

Meh. I can respect some of her positions but mostly she was an overly-pragmatic, pompous bitch.

You named yourself after her most famous steaming pile of hypocritical bullshit.

Let me guess - you're a teenager with fairly well off parents who thinks he's figured it all out with the sheer brilliance of his own sparkling intellect.

Your sneering narrative voice is a dead giveaway.

how odd.

do you know, i'm unable to detect even the faintest trace of a sneer in the narrative voice of this post?

Irony, it's rich! I'll have two, please.

[The Script]

Where would violence come from? Austrian commandos storming the Federal Reserve? A nuclear exchange between Mt.Gox and Paypal?

I don't see it.

^^ This is funny.  I get this mental picture of Mises and Hayek storming the Fed in ninja gear.  I award you +1 internets. 

I am not aware of any entities that have a monopoly on force.

What if I add "within a specific geographic location"?  Can you think of any entities that have a monopoly on coercion and compulsion within a specific geographic location?

[caveden]

I am not aware of any entities that have a monopoly on force.

What if I add "within a specific geographic location"?

What's part of the definition of monopoly, by the way.

[flug]

Good mobile apps for exchanging bitcoins seems to me to be one of the keys for the success of Bitcoin, enabling easy exchange of bitcoins in the BTC<->Cash market, and keeping it out of reach of govt.

I can't envision being able to transact in bitcoins using a mobile app in an environment where theyve been declared illegal and not being traced.  Can you?

I'm thinking of an app where one person can simply transfer bitcoins to another person. Like a gift. Can the possession or movement of bitcoins be declared illegal?

[The Script]

I am not aware of any entities that have a monopoly on force.

What if I add "within a specific geographic location"?

What's part of the definition of monopoly, by the way.

I suppose it would be implied, yes, you are right.

[GideonGono]

Good mobile apps for exchanging bitcoins seems to me to be one of the keys for the success of Bitcoin, enabling easy exchange of bitcoins in the BTC<->Cash market, and keeping it out of reach of govt.

I can't envision being able to transact in bitcoins using a mobile app in an environment where theyve been declared illegal and not being traced.  Can you?

I'm thinking of an app where one person can simply transfer bitcoins to another person. Like a gift. Can the possession or movement of bitcoins be declared illegal?

Yes they can. In theory govt can do anything. We have kool-aid drinkers like DamienBlack & Scientician to thank for that. They already ban people giving away music and movies on the net. Fortunately (or unfortunately for said kool-aid drinkers) this theoretical power does not always translate into authority on the ground.