There will be blood.

[Nescio]

...

Spot on. I only think they will (try to) move in sooner. The most likely scenario is that news stories will keep coming, then probably in august/september when everyone goes back to work/school etc. Bitcoin will become hotter, the (illegal) businesses jumping on the bandwagon after the Silk Road publicity will come online and gov will have the excuse to accelerate things. Maybe 3 more months until exchange domain seizures start.

Exchange rate should be slightly increasing until then, probably with big ups and downs as people cash out, but I doubt it will hit $100 by the end of the month as some speculators predict, let alone $10k, ever. There is still some room to trade and make money, if you know when to cash out. Ironically the price has been stable for a few days now as probably many people are sitting on the fence, waiting to see what others will do. BTC however is still way overvalued compared to actual economy size, and only approaches speculative value if there will be more mainstream coverage to push prices up above $30-40, and I don't mean fringe libertation Youtube operators, or niche economy magazines.

Once the seizures happen price will bottom out below USD parity and stay there with some speculative zigzags that underscore the volatility.

All of this means no mainstream acceptance and Bitcoin will sink into oblivion, perhaps only saved by black market use. Ironically this will guarantee a lot more utility and stability, but sadly not for law abiding citizens, let alone any kind of antidote against the Fed. The idea might survive and resurface in a different implementation, hopefully without the bubble.

I don't know if all accounts trading with exchanges will be frozen though, maybe only some larger ones to serve as 'money laundering' scapegoats.

Of course the above is not financial advise, I'm not qualified to give it etc.

I'm also curious if its possible to have distributed exchanges, perhaps involving webs of trust (at some point there has to be some kind of way to transfer fiat currencies in and out, I very much doubt a suppressed market can sustain itself without exchange).

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[foggyb]

At that point demand for BTC will be reduced because of reduced liquidity

BTC will go way down in price

Hogwash. Look at drug prohibition and you will see this won't be the case.

Interesting parallel. Does it fly? Everyone can get high (but they don't), most people who do, enjoy it. Some MUST get high due to their addiction. However its not a socially acceptable practice in many circles, can have serious health risks, and there is always the threat of legality.

Everyone can use bitcoins (will they), and most people will enjoy using and spending them. Some MUST have bitcoins to get HIGH. ;^) Currently there are no serious social ramifications except for ridicule and scoffing (unless one counts losing GF due to spending entire budget on mining hardware). Currently there are no legal issues, although that could change overnight.

[caveden]

At that point demand for BTC will be reduced because of reduced liquidity

BTC will go way down in price

Hogwash. Look at drug prohibition and you will see this won't be the case.

Interesting parallel. Does it fly?

I'm not sure such parallel is coherent. Drugs prohibition strongly decreases drugs supply, thus increasing their prices. Bitcoin prohibition wouldn't change its supply - unless people start destroying their wallets in fear of getting caught, what's unlikely to be substantial. At most, if done early, such prohibition might have a strong advertising effect, increasing the demand for bitcoins. But that's hard to predict.

[Findeton]

I don't think they'll easily ban bitcoins.

[Scientician!]

Yes they can. In theory govt can do anything. We have kool-aid drinkers like DamienBlack & Scientician to thank for that. They already ban people giving away music and movies on the net. Fortunately (or unfortunately for said kool-aid drinkers) this theoretical power does not always translate into authority on the ground.

You have me to thank for the theory that government can do anything? I don't follow you, please explain.

Yes, copyright law exists, people ignore it by sharing copies of copyrighted material with one another. The government can make any laws that they like, and people are free in this country to ignore them. The risk of getting caught is fairly low as well as long as you're just trading movies and music back and forth, much like the risk of trading BTC for goods and services directly exposes you to a much lower risk footprint that does cashing out thousands of BTC for USD.

The state that you live in is free to create laws. You are free to ignore them. You accept the risk involved. How much risk are you comfortable with? Its not "theoretical power" when the IRS starts suing people for tax evasion, or locking people up. That I believe  that this can, will and does happen doesn't make me a "kool-aid drinker", it makes me a realist. When the feds go after BTC, you will have to recaluclate your acceptable risk threshold, again. 

If the state is powerless to inhibit your personal liberty, there wouldn't be any need for Bitcoin in the first place. Your argument (was there one in there somewhere?) is a fallacy in terms.

[flug]

Spot on. I only think they will (try to) move in sooner.

They? This is a global  currency, not a US currency. Would it survive if the US moved against it but the rest of the world didn't?

[Nescio]

They? This is a global  currency, not a US currency. Would it survive if the US moved against it but the rest of the world didn't?

I don't think it would. If you look at how EU policy is under the US' thumb (various MPAA/RIAA/IFPI subsidiaries, ACTA, asymmetrical banking privacy, French 3 strikes, covert CIA prisons, EC vs. Parliament, people like Gates and Zuckerberg dictating at G8 etc.), there is very little chance bank accounts in the developed world would remain useful.

That means even if an exchange evades shutdown by being located in say Venezuela, the links to any major fiat currency will be cut. Paypal is out the window, Dwolla and similar will be leaned on to stop passing through etc.

Also, a lot of traffic goes through US controlled trunks, not to mention BGP black holes. If all else fails, operators can always receive offers they cannot refuse.

[justusranvier]

Bloodshed will indeed ensure.

Why am I posting this instead of just trading on it I dont know.

Government will move in on Bitcoin in 12-18months from now

Until then the price of BTC will go up as more services are developed for it and use increases, due to its natural competitive advantage over PayPal and other online money services

The bloodshed will then start.

First, MtGox will be shut down; their bank account will be frozen and their business & owner in Japan seized

All other bank accounts involved in exchanging Bitcoins will be frozen & similar fates will occur to their proprieters

At that point demand for BTC will be reduced because of reduced liquidity

BTC will go way down in price

BTC will still have value from here on and be used but only for black market goods, it will not reach mainstream appeal as long as governments oppose it

Any new exchanges will be moved on and have their bank accounts frozen

People will still mine BTC a long time from now but it will not reach mainstream appeal.

Until governments move in however the price will go up, so all buy in on the MT Gox and enjoy the party! Just no real prediction when its going to end, but governments usually move slowly. Expect alot more press about Bitcoin and publicity in the mean time which will also serve to drive up the price

I might be wrong but I'm pretty sure Mt Gox didn't get shut down in the second half of 2012.

[mcdett]

Spot on. I only think they will (try to) move in sooner.

They? This is a global  currency, not a US currency. Would it survive if the US moved against it but the rest of the world didn't?

This is correct.  Let's say the US says operating a mining rig, taking part in block exchange, and buying selling btc is illegal, then they've just birthed massive amount of credibility to the world wide system.  They could also fix the price of btc in a buy back in the form of a safe harbor reimbursement, and then make it illegal, but then the US ends up as a massive stake holder in btc... which opens up another can of worms (some other time).

<tinfoli hat firmly in place>If you were to ask me truthfully what I think is behind bitcoin.  cia.  I think they know the fiat system is on its way out.  they know that it is a matter of time before someone else figures out that proof of work computing is a far more efficient system at storing transactions on a multi billion node system.  they leak it out to the world after they've mined almost 40% of the total btc to ever be minted.... and then they welcome the arrival of the new banking world system holding 40% of the assets... game on until we figure out another more efficient method for value transactions.</tinfoli hat firmly in place>

No matter what we're in an exponential curve of technology development.  We're kind of at the infancy of the great swing upwards.  It doesn't surprise me that networked systems on a common protocol could turn the archaic baking system on it's head.

[romerun]

There was already, the body was identified as Satoshi Nakamoto. Yet BTC still moves on.

[Coma]

Totally forgot about this thread. I think the personal security aspect of bitcoin holders will be a big issue in a few months. I still believe there will eventually be some minor social convultion here and there around this.

[Digtop]

I think the personal security aspect of bitcoin holders will be a big issue in a few months.

Yep.  Organized crime probably hasn't gotten fully up to speed on the unique opportunity that bitcoin presents, but I imagine they will.   Precious jewelry sitting around the house doesn't tend to exponentially multiply in value, yet bitcoins are, and I don't think bitcoin owners are adequately grappling with the personal security implications that may accompany the bull run.  Home invasion, gun to the family's heads, demand the transfer of the coins.  Lists of those presumed to have large stashes (those involved since 2012 or earlier, for example) might be quite valuable in certain unsavory circles.  Imagine a security breach at a Coinbase or a Bitstamp that leaks a list of the KYC-verified identities.  High-value targets!

[Coma]

 Imagine a security breach at a Coinbase or a Bitstamp that leaks a list of the KYC-verified identities.  High-value targets!

SHOLY HIT, haven't thought of that one!!!!

[kalin]

There wont be blood. The world is always changing and always has. Those who have the existing currency are probably investing in bitcoin right now. Others are not, and wont necessarily be affected. Existing bankers and the like wont go "oh my god, grab the weapons!!" they'll go "gee, maybe I can make a buck here", they'll do research and maybe move some other investments across. Simple as that.

Will it or has it changed the world of early adopters who cashed in? Certainly. Will it change the world and the existing power structures? no. Those who like to be able to track the money will start tracking bitcoin and probably will be mostly successful. They can hold on to the blockchain and have a clean record of what wallet contains what. And the NSA etc have tapped plenty of fibre optic cables and cracked some versions of SSL, so they would have written an extension that sniffs your connections in to Mt Gox or wherever, tracks your ebay, palpal etc and puts bitcoin wallets to names in the database with the rest of your private info. They wont find everybody, but in that way its no different to regular currency.