What is the deal with hoarding?

[randrace]

I spend some and I save some. I'm no economist, but don't we need to spend these things to enhance their utility/value?

Extremist Scenario: Most people hoard these things, consumers and merchants loose interest, and we are all holding the virtual equivalent of Beanie Babies.

I fear that some day I'm going to come across an unspent 25BTC Casacius coin for sale for $1 in a Thrift Store and think, "Man, those were heady days..."

[Crazy]

For mining to not add selling pressure on the exchanges, the amount of money to pay for the electricity must be the same as the amount of fresh "sucker" money entering the exchanges.   In your case, you just moved your newly invested money into the "fresh money" category, you still need others to top up to that $0.5 million.

If I've gained any knowledge these past few weeks, it's that there is a lot of stupid money out there. I'm just not willing to gamble when it'll dry up.

[Elwar]

Miners' costs are not 11 million bitcoins, what are you talking about?

Nothing depends on the price bitcoin has if all attempt to cash out, why are you thinking that?

When miners cash out, it is at max 3600 per day.  That is your $0.5 million per day.  Nothing to do with 11 million cashing out.  And this $0.5 million clearly follows price, the higher the price, the higher this number is.

You saying that miners cashing out 3600 per day equals $.5 million per day. That would be the same as saying we are propping up Bitcoin by keeping $2 billion in the system. Has $2 billion been poured into buying bitcoins to reach this price?

If 100,000 miners have an extra $14 added to their electricity cost, it will not impact the bitcoin price. What will affect the price is when those 100,000 miners convert their dollars to bitcoins in order to buy an 88 BTC ASIC (which are paid for in BTC).

To say that they would have spent that $14 on MtGox instead of electricity is a stretch. That is like saying that federal income taxes are keeping the price of bitcoins down by $2 trillion per year because people are paying taxes instead of buying bitcoins.

[Elwar]

I spend some and I save some. I'm no economist, but don't we need to spend these things to enhance their utility/value?

Extremist Scenario: Most people hoard these things, consumers and merchants loose interest, and we are all holding the virtual equivalent of Beanie Babies.

I fear that some day I'm going to come across an unspent 25BTC Casacius coin for sale for $1 in a Thrift Store and think, "Man, those were heady days..."

They are being spent. Please point to the facts that would show that bitcoins are not being spent.

Speculation is not the only forum on this board. Go read through MarketPlace or Project Development.

[Adrian-x]

only sad if you were a bear 6 months ago and had the opportunity to buy in with a big amount

3 months ago

The more distributed the transfer of wealth when switching to Bitcoin the faster it will grow, so no shame in being a bear.

[odolvlobo]

The problem with hoarding is not as much the hoarding as the lack of spending. The value of bitcoin is ultimately determined by its utility. Its primary, if not only, utility is as a medium of exchange. If most people buy bitcoins to hoard them and not spend to them, then the price rises but the utility stays the same. This situation will ultimate lead to a crash, which could kill bitcoin's future. That is the problem with hoarding.

Take a look at the charts below. Though the indications are not completely clear, it appears to me that hoarding is not pervasive and not likely to cause a crash. People appear to be selling off their hoarded bitcoins and there is still plenty of demand.

The first chart shows that the number of transactions vs. the number of exchange trades is falling. This can be interpreted as saying that more people are hoarding than spending. That's bad news.



However, the second chart shows the amount of transactions in USD has increased tremendously, almost as much as the price. This indicates that hoarding is not as prevalent as some people think. That's good news.



Finally, the last chart is complicated to explain. In simple terms, if you compare the graph to a graph of the total number of bitcoins, it indicates the level of hoarding. A high value compared to the total number of bitcoins indicates more spending and less hoarding. This chart shows that the percentage of hoarded coins is dropping, and very quickly in the last few weeks. That is great news.
 

[BitcoinAshley]

Right now we have a problem.  Bitcoin's price is rising so fast, so high that you would be silly to spend any of them on goods and services.  Yes, downright stupid.  $15 in January, $60 in March, $160 in April.  At this pace we're looking at well over a thousand dollars before the end of 2013.  Parting with any bitcoins now is leaving a huge wad of money at the table and literally walking away.

One can look at the trade volume on MtGox as evidence that people are spending, but it must also be considered that people are rather speculating and trading.  One side wants to get out before a probable bubble pops, the other side wants to buy as many as possible and dump before the bubble pops.

WHY ON EARTH DO PEOPLE KEEP SAYING THAT NOBODY IS SPENDING BITCOINS?

It just keeps popping up... and I can't for the life of me figure out how we come to this conclusion.
Bitpay is getting a RECORD number of new merchants, and their sales figures are increasing at a record rate, so it's not just merchants signing up for an unused service... it doesn't even matter whether or not the merchant cashes out to USD; people are SPENDING BITCOINS. Sure, it sucks when you buy something with bitcoins when they're $24 and then at $150 you think of how much more money you could have... but what are you going to do, throw every single cent of FIAT at MT. GOX and live in a cardboard box on a hunger strike until bitcoin hits $1,000,000? DUDE, THAT'S SO TOTALLY NOT HOW IT WORKS. (Is anybody doing that? PLEASE tell me if you're doing that, so I can laugh at you, for being the one idiot that doesn't spend during deflationary opportunity)

Your theory is whack because it is based in a Paul Krugman wet dream fantasy world where people don't spend deflationary currencies since they will be worth more in the future. People are human, they have needs that must be fulfilled in the PRESENT MOMENT. When the need for something in the present moment surpasses any potential future benefit of putting off that need, the person will seek to meet the need in the present. Sure, I'll give you this: The faster the currency deflates, the saving:consumption ratio increases. But we're not at a point where nobody's spending bitcoins, because if that were the case, NOBODY WOULD BE SPENDING BITCOINS. By the way, the charts above say this a little better than my violent stream of arrogant language so I apologize. The problem you describe - we simply don't have this problem right now. When bitcoin starts going up 1000% a day then maybe people will start throwing every cent of fiat into bitcoin and living in cardboard boxes - then I'll concede to your superior logic :-P

People are spending bitcoins. So, Q.E.D. wipe Krugman's inflationary emission off your face and buy something with your bitcoins. 

[Crazy]

I think the point is I can quicker meet my needs paying with fiat than spending a BTC that will be worth 20% more tomorrow. I guess for some reason you're assuming it's necessity to spend BTC?

[mestar]

You saying that miners cashing out 3600 per day equals $.5 million per day. That would be the same as saying we are propping up Bitcoin by keeping $2 billion in the system. Has $2 billion been poured into buying bitcoins to reach this price?

How is that the same,  I simply don't see your logic here.

Saying that somebody sells $0.5 million per day means that if nobody is willing to buy that amount at that price, the price will go down.  

At no point does the total "market cap" enter the picture.

[Elwar]

I think the point is I can quicker meet my needs paying with fiat than spending a BTC that will be worth 20% more tomorrow. I guess for some reason you're assuming it's necessity to spend BTC?

The point is...why do you still have fiat?

[Crazy]

Because I can spend it anywhere I want to, and chances are better it'll retain value over the long haul than BTC which is 4 years old and can be traumatized with the swipe of a pen from an overzealous legislature.

Regarding your debate with mestar. I think his point is, if someone sold 3600 BTC right now on MtGox, what would be the next highest bid after those 3600 coins were liquidated?

[Elwar]

You saying that miners cashing out 3600 per day equals $.5 million per day. That would be the same as saying we are propping up Bitcoin by keeping $2 billion in the system. Has $2 billion been poured into buying bitcoins to reach this price?

How is that the same,  I simply don't see your logic here.

Saying that somebody sells $0.5 million per day means that if nobody is willing to buy that amount at that price, the price will go down.  

At no point does the total "market cap" enter the picture.

You claim that because X bitcoins are created, Y dollars need to be invested for those X bitcoins to stay in the system.

I am asking if 3000X bitcoins require 3000Y dollars to be invested for those 3000X bitcoins to stay in the system.


X being 3600 and Y being $.5 million.

3000X being ~11 million and 3000Y being $2 billion

[johnyj]

If the exchange price doubles every month, and you spend half of the coin each month, then your consumption power will always stay the same, isn't that amazing ?

[Elwar]

Regarding your debate with mestar. I think his point is, if someone sold 3600 BTC right now on MtGox, what would be the next highest bid after those 3600 coins were liquidated?

I am not sure of the exact price as I cannot view all of the charts at work but I would guestimate that selling 3600 BTC right now on MtGox would bring the price down near $100/BTC.

Has there been any indication on MtGox that all miners are selling 3600 bitcoins per day?

Or are miners different from other users that would somehow imply that they are not like the rest of the Bitcoin community where only .6% trade on a daily basis.

[Crazy]

Or are miners different from other users that would somehow imply that they are not like the rest of the Bitcoin community where only .6% trade on a daily basis.

If they don't sell it, they're investing in it (at cost), so it's still the same amount entering the market just via electrical expenditure instead of direct USD. Might not be exactly because there is a profit margin, but it's still new money. Just they are the new money.

[Elwar]

Regarding your debate with mestar. I think his point is, if someone sold 3600 BTC right now on MtGox, what would be the next highest bid after those 3600 coins were liquidated?

I am not sure of the exact price as I cannot view all of the charts at work but I would guestimate that selling 3600 BTC right now on MtGox would bring the price down near $100/BTC.

Has there been any indication on MtGox that all miners are selling 3600 bitcoins per day?

Or are miners different from other users that would somehow imply that they are not like the rest of the Bitcoin community where only .6% trade on a daily basis.

3.6k coins would only bring us down to about $162, if sold on Mt Gox. http://bitcoinity.org/markets

Hmm, I am only able to see down to 167 on there, is there a setting to widen the chart?

[Elwar]

Or are miners different from other users that would somehow imply that they are not like the rest of the Bitcoin community where only .6% trade on a daily basis.

If they don't sell it, they're investing in it (at cost), so it's still the same amount entering the market just via electrical expenditure instead of direct USD. Might not be exactly because there is a profit margin, but it's still new money. Just they are the new money.

Correct, and because it does not flow through MtGox, the price is not affected.

[Crazy]

@Hmm, I am only able to see down to 167 on there, is there a setting to widen the chart?

The + - upper right above the chart

@Correct, and because it does not flow through MtGox, the price is not affected.

What's not flowing through MtGox?

[Elwar]

The + - upper right above the chart

Nice, thanks.

[Elwar]

@Hmm, I am only able to see down to 167 on there, is there a setting to widen the chart?

The + - upper right above the chart

@Correct, and because it does not flow through MtGox, the price is not affected.

What's not flowing through MtGox?

Newly mined bitcoins.