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Author Topic: Crash coming?  (Read 2182 times)
th3hous3
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April 08, 2013, 04:57:42 PM
 #1

What goes up, must come down. And the speed something goes up is usually the speed it comes down.

Now I'm not saying bitcoin is going to crash, but its rising so quickly (I'm sure due to recent media coverage) it's ridiculous. $90 up in a week or so? Bitcoin is now jumping $30 every other night it seems.

Thoughts? Will bitcoin crash? Soon, in a year, or not at all?

(It's not that I'm not happy about my money being worth so much more, it is I'm afraid it will crash and ill lose it all)

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April 08, 2013, 05:03:11 PM
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i honestly cant see it crashing i can see it dipping a few times but nothing more than 20% who ever boosted the market did something epic maybe its all the people loosing faith in all the governments

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ForceField
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April 08, 2013, 05:09:38 PM
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(It's not that I'm not happy about my money being worth so much more, it is I'm afraid it will crash and ill lose it all

You shouldn't take a risk that you can't afford to lose. At the current price point, Bitcoin is highly speculative.

If you're afraid to lose your investment, why not take some profit now?

From a technical analysis standpoint, this graph does not inspire much confidence that a rally can continue without a correction / profit taking:


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April 08, 2013, 05:11:17 PM
 #4

Based on what little research I have done, the value of BTC seems to dip whenever the difficulty rises.  As for the hyper inflation we have all enjoyed so far, it does seem a little scary to me.  Currencies are often tied to the political and economic climate of the country to which they are bound.  Since BTC has no country backing , the value is solely based on trades - much like a stock. The future value of Bitcoins are truly unpredictable.

I am probably wrong on many counts.  Please correct me if I am way off target.

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April 08, 2013, 05:15:33 PM
 #5

I don't think that orthodox prediction methods, which predict a crash, apply well to bitcoin. Bitcoin has no intrinsic value in the orthodox sense, which says it never should have risen in the first place.

Bitcoin will avert a crash if its usability as a medium of exchange can catch up to its speculative value. If many merchants (or just one like Amazon) adopt it, it will continue to grow to truly stratospheric heights.

Just today, a major NY landlord agency adopted bitcoin as a payment option.
miyamoto
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April 08, 2013, 05:17:11 PM
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I've watched "bubbles" in Real Estate for years.  Never seen the "crash" everyone talks about, yet anyways.  My personal thoughts are that Bitcoin will continue to rise with some pretty big bumps along the way, but rise nevertheless.  If you read these forums, you will see the sentiment here is very bullish and most people are hoarding their coins, putting pressure on the supply therefore increasing prices.  I think we have a ways to go before any major correction, but more likely stability.
th3hous3
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April 08, 2013, 05:22:05 PM
 #7

Didn't real estate crash hard a while back though?

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PachucoBro
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April 08, 2013, 05:23:20 PM
 #8

I've watched "bubbles" in Real Estate for years.  Never seen the "crash" everyone talks about, yet anyways.  

Wha?!

Ummm... take a look at the number of foreclosures on the market and home values after 2008 to a year ago... or even to this day. Where do you live? maybe not in the US?

I don't think that orthodox prediction methods, which predict a crash, apply well to bitcoin. Bitcoin has no intrinsic value in the orthodox sense, which says it never should have risen in the first place.


I agree with you there... BitCoin is its own animal and will fluctuate differently than typical stocks or other fiat currencies.

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April 08, 2013, 05:25:46 PM
 #9

When you say "it's going to crash" I feel their is an implicit comparison to other things like stocks, shares, gold or real-estate.

Bitcoin is none of these things so cannot directly be compared.

Now I'm not saying: "This time its different" or that their will not be a crash, just that this is not comparable to anything we have direct experience off previously.

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mysteriouscockfungus
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April 08, 2013, 05:26:22 PM
 #10

It wont crash much at all because the moment people see BTC down 10-20% they go nutz buying it cus they know it will rebound and be worth double in a matter of weeks... so yeh, dont expect any crashes anytime soon.
Malawi
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April 08, 2013, 05:41:45 PM
 #11

It wont crash much at all because the moment people see BTC down 10-20% they go nutz buying it cus they know it will rebound and be worth double in a matter of weeks... so yeh, dont expect any crashes anytime soon.

If it doubles every few weeks, how long does it take before a single bitcoin is enough to buy a house? Do the math.

I feel pretty sure that this is a bubble. BTC may be worth a lot more in the future, but with the spike it's in now, it sorta has to go pretty much back down.

BTC is not big enough(at least yet) to absorb all this trading, so prices has to fluctuate wildly. Imagine what would happen if half the world suddently started buying Islandic kronas...

BitCoin is NOT a pyramid - it's a pagoda.
dorei
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April 08, 2013, 05:53:04 PM
 #12

bitcoin reminds me of the tulip mania

Quoting from wikipedia:
At the peak of tulip mania, in February 1637, some single tulip bulbs sold for more than 10 times the annual income of a skilled craftsman.

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CalicoChris
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April 08, 2013, 05:56:59 PM
 #13

This is not a technical analysis - it is just an evil thought (grins).

I think we're seeing an attempt at a 'corporate take-over'.  I think big fiat is now chasing little crypto 'cause big fiat has nothing else to chase today.  They've chased themselves into rather major holes.   

In my opinion, if you want to be true to the spirit of bitcoin, hold - take profit for sure, but make that big fiat struggle and pay for every bitcoin they are most probably trying to buy. 

And then, when they get tired of the game, have some limit orders in there to buy at a lower price.  And then let bitcoin continue in its own spirit, a currency that cannot be controlled. 
Hjertify
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April 08, 2013, 06:10:18 PM
 #14

I doubt a crash will happen... seems just people are getting scared...
yefi
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April 08, 2013, 06:12:29 PM
 #15

What goes up, must come down.

Somebody tell that to Voyager 1. Bitch thinks it can just disregard our gravity.
Malawi
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April 08, 2013, 06:26:16 PM
 #16

This is not a technical analysis - it is just an evil thought (grins).

I think we're seeing an attempt at a 'corporate take-over'.  I think big fiat is now chasing little crypto 'cause big fiat has nothing else to chase today.  They've chased themselves into rather major holes.   

In my opinion, if you want to be true to the spirit of bitcoin, hold - take profit for sure, but make that big fiat struggle and pay for every bitcoin they are most probably trying to buy. 

And then, when they get tired of the game, have some limit orders in there to buy at a lower price.  And then let bitcoin continue in its own spirit, a currency that cannot be controlled. 

Without the political mumbo-jumbo, you are talking sense.

If you have a BTC stash, it would be wise to sell some now. Then when this speculation-spike is over, you can buy even more BTC back. -Or buy more hardware.

BitCoin is NOT a pyramid - it's a pagoda.
BitcoinAttorney
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April 08, 2013, 06:27:19 PM
 #17

What no one has been talking about is the floodgate of ASICs that are coming online very soon. Miners are going to produce a lot of coins soon. More coins in circulation means lower value. That will burst the bubble, allowing a new set of long-term (stabilizing) investors to get in at a lower price. When is BFL delivering? Crash to follow.
Malawi
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April 08, 2013, 06:28:03 PM
 #18

What goes up, must come down.

Somebody tell that to Voyager 1. Bitch thinks it can just disregard our gravity.

Still - Voyager will most likely crash and burn at some point. Rather as soon as it comes close enough to something else with enough gravity.

BitCoin is NOT a pyramid - it's a pagoda.
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April 08, 2013, 06:29:56 PM
 #19

if its like gold ... nope .. it wont go down  Grin
Malawi
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April 08, 2013, 06:30:15 PM
 #20

What no one has been talking about is the floodgate of ASICs that are coming online very soon. Miners are going to produce a lot of coins soon. More coins in circulation means lower value. That will burst the bubble, allowing a new set of long-term (stabilizing) investors to get in at a lower price. When is BFL delivering? Crash to follow.

They will not mine more coins. The distribution of coins are already set. The effect will be that they will get a larger proportion of the coins, and that mining with GFC's will become absolete.

BitCoin is NOT a pyramid - it's a pagoda.
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