Was it a mistake to purchase Avalon batch #3?

[airliner]

Well, topic says most of it...

My greatest concern is never to see a ROI and my second concern is we won't see a ROI within year..  with ROI I mean mainly in BTC, not fiat money but speculate freely please. add 25 % VAT on price of the avalon for european customers.

What is the worst case scenario in your opinion?

Does anyone else who purchased a #3 have the same worries? Feel free to speculate even if you haven't ordered one yourself.

[JimiQ84]

Well, topic says most of it...

Does anyone else who purchased a #3 have the same worries?

My greatest concern is never to see a ROI and my second concern is we won't see a ROI within year..  with ROI I mean mainly in BTC, not fiat money but speculate freely please. add 25 % VAT on price of the avalon for european customers.

What is the worst case scenario in your opinion?

I think the one year ROI is the worst case scenario. Even if BFL produces all their preorders and even if ASICMINER deploys all of their 262 TH, Avalon #3 will be profitable. It will just take longer.

[cedivad]

It ALL depends on the delivery time. I'm also afraid of the BTC roi of my batch 2 order. We can only wait for an update from avalon during the next week or so.

Worst case is ASICMINER delivering 50TH tomorrow, BFL shipping 100TH in 2 months (will never happen) and Avalon delaying another month for batch 2/3 customers while the network hashrate increases without any pause. In this case, an Avalon would do less than 1BTC per day. The initial investment would likely never come back, if the hashrate keeps growing at that pace, that is something i assume to be true.

We can only sit and wait for an update from Avalon.

[airliner]

hmm. maybe i should've posted this to mining/speculation..

[bcpokey]

The mods have been having a field day moving threads so if it should move it probably will.

As regards a batch 3 order, well only time will tell. Too many unknowns to really make any kind of informed guess.

The avalons are woefully power inefficient, but the upshot is that even so they are delightfully efficient comparatively and can be run into mega difficulties . My bet is that in terms of BTC they will return their cost, perhaps in a year, however if BTC return the same fiat value in that time is anyone's guess. BTC could be worth nothing or enough to buy a house, we all wait eagerly to find out

[trinsic]

You can always sell the pre-order.

[GodfatherBond]

Well, topic says most of it...

My greatest concern is never to see a ROI and my second concern is we won't see a ROI within year..  with ROI I mean mainly in BTC, not fiat money but speculate freely please. add 25 % VAT on price of the avalon for european customers.

What is the worst case scenario in your opinion?

Does anyone else who purchased a #3 have the same worries? Feel free to speculate even if you haven't ordered one yourself.

Be happy you have it ordered, I'm happy with my 4 mod Batch3 Avalon order... waiting for it!
Dont take too many worries at this moment. It was the only choise and only way to stay or get in the game!
Sure it will mine back its price. We´ll see how fast..

[yeemartin]

my prediction of the ROI is 2-4 months. Most likely in 2 months.

[Minor Miner]

It ALL depends on the delivery time. I'm also afraid of the BTC roi of my batch 2 order. We can only wait for an update from avalon during the next week or so.

Worst case is ASICMINER delivering 50TH tomorrow, BFL shipping 100TH in 2 months (will never happen) and Avalon delaying another month for batch 2/3 customers while the network hashrate increases without any pause. In this case, an Avalon would do less than 1BTC per day. The initial investment would likely never come back, if the hashrate keeps growing at that pace, that is something i assume to be true.

We can only sit and wait for an update from Avalon.

So why does that make you nervous then?  In your "it will never happen scenario above", you have the network at 275TH (all avalon delivered too) and you will have a 65GH machine in your hands that you paid 75 BTC for (or around $7,000 for).   So, how many BTC per day can you expect at that point??
around 0.85 right?   What price to put on BTC (I know it varies but my bet is the trend is up, not down) so humor me and use $200.    So, if miracles happen (all of the miracles are BAD for you in the above case) and all these TH deploy before you get your unit, your BTC are back in less than 90 days and your USD would be back in 41 days.     You have won the lottery and are worried about it.

[cedivad]

You are deliberating missing what an exponential rise is.

[Minor Miner]

You are deliberating missing what an exponential rise is.

How so?

[cedivad]

You are deliberating missing what an exponential rise is.

How so?

After that 300th, there would be another 600 the following month and another 1200 2 months after, 2400 etc. Also, supposing the price to be > 200$ 2 months from now is not something I would bet on.

So, you receive the hardware and you mine at 0.8btc. At the end of the month, you do 0.4btc. The following month, you will mine at 0.2, 0.1 after that.
0.6*30+0.3*30+0.15*30 = 31btc. You won't get much more.

[Aseras]

if bfl ships in volume anytime before you get your avalon, yeah

[Minor Miner]

You are deliberating missing what an exponential rise is.

How so?

After that 300th, there would befollosing 600 the following month and another 1200 2 months after. Also, supposing the price to be > 200$ 2 months from now is not something I would bet on.

The 300 are delivered and hashing and have taken the network to the 59TH it is at.   There are 1200 more to come (avalon) in batch II and III that is another 80-90TH.   I included that.   You bringing up what occurs MONTHS after you have your money back is irrelevant.   You all were lamenting about getting your money back.   The $200 point is ALSO irrelevant.  If you DO NOT believe in BTC valuations against FIAT, then you would still only have 88 days to wait to get your BTC back WORST CASE SCENARIO.   I do not understand where you can poke a hole in my math.   Capacity shifts (like production) takes TIME.   And I would argue that putting the 100TH in for BFL is just effing stupid since in your payback period there is zero possibility BFL ships 10TH let alone 100TH.

[Syke]

You are deliberating missing what an exponential rise is.

How so?

After that 300th, there would be another 600 the following month and another 1200 2 months after, 2400 etc.

Who do you think is creating all that new hardware? People don't just pick it up at the neighborhood Walmart.

[cedivad]

I took the time to update my post with some calculations so that you can get the concept.
Do you understand that this is now a fucking 250 million dollar market? Silicon valley CEOs are having wet dreams thinking about that. It will not happen in the next 3 months, but this summer, I'm quite sure I will shutdown my avalon.

I would be happy to be wrong. Asicminer alone is projecting 1000th by the end of the year, 8 months to go. It will be an arms race.

[Minor Miner]

I took the time to update my post with some calculations so that you can get the concept.
Do you understand that this is now a fucking 250 million dollar market? Silicon valley CEOs are having wet dreams thinking about that. It will not happen in the next 3 months, but this summer, I'm quite sure I will shutdown my avalon.

I would be happy to be wrong. Asicminer alone is projecting 1000th by the end of the year, 8 months to go. It will be an arms race.

Can I bid on your avalon at a price we both can agree on for me to take if from you July 4th?

[cedivad]

If you bid more than 50btc, sure!

[Minor Miner]

If you bid more than 50btc, sure!

Wow, are you bipolar?   Am I talking with the half that said, "I will have to shut it down in the summer because the exponential increase in difficulty" or the half that now feels that the shutdown machine in July is worth 50BTC?   If you truly believe the machine is worthless to you in the summer and needs to be shutdown, ask a reasonable price and I will agree to it.   USD or BTC.   We can find some way to come to agreement so that whichever one of us is wrong, will not welch on the physical exchange after the holiday weekend.

[Rampion]

I took the time to update my post with some calculations so that you can get the concept.
Do you understand that this is now a fucking 250 million dollar market? Silicon valley CEOs are having wet dreams thinking about that. It will not happen in the next 3 months, but this summer, I'm quite sure I will shutdown my avalon.

I would be happy to be wrong. Asicminer alone is projecting 1000th by the end of the year, 8 months to go. It will be an arms race.

Big structures are not flexible enough to make strategic decisions quickly , and everything is happening very fast. The risk of a BTC price drop is still high, so the rise in difficulty will not be so immediate as you expect.

Your batch #2 will ROI nicely and will give you nice profits - you can bet on that.

If exchange rate keeps growing and market gets stronger... Oh boy, we are going to see huge, game-changing investments in the next couple of years.