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April 08, 2013, 10:06:07 PM
 #21

"In the long run, we are all dead." - John Maynard Keynes
Probably the smartest thing he ever said.
The only thing he ever said that was fact based


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April 08, 2013, 10:09:11 PM
 #22

"In the long run, we are all dead." - John Maynard Keynes
Probably the smartest thing he ever said.
The only thing he ever said that was fact based

facts?  such as "the long run" and "we are all"
Pretty well-defined technicals there.   Roll Eyes

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April 08, 2013, 10:14:38 PM
 #23

"In the long run, we are all dead." - John Maynard Keynes
Probably the smartest thing he ever said.
The only thing he ever said that was fact based

facts?  such as "the long run" and "we are all"
Pretty well-defined technicals there.   Roll Eyes
Keynesians are not known for giving you dates to trade on.   more known for "I know better than you so be quiet because things are getting better"   


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April 08, 2013, 10:16:20 PM
 #24

That's right, I speculate we're going to see some bitcoin-related suicides, and the mass media will lap it up, ruining a perfectly good crypto-currency with tons of potential.
Yeah, that's why I hope this thing crashes for good sooner rather than later. It's already served its purpose of piquing people's interest in the notion of digital currency and providing a cryptographic proof of concept, it can be phased out now in favor of a properly thought out digital currency system that takes more seriously the need for a stable price and tight correspondence between the amount of currency and the amount of real values (products & services) existing on the market at any given time (two crucial aspects that the Bitcoin system clearly does not address seriously).
No, Bitcoin is plenty well thought out wrt money supply. A set, well-known inflation rate, with a known max limit, and a known date of reaching that limit ensure long-term stability. Short-term fluctuations in price are mostly due to demand for the currency itself, something even your MythicalCoin can't control.

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April 08, 2013, 10:18:58 PM
 #25


tl;dr


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April 08, 2013, 10:21:33 PM
 #26

I thought about too... in regards to lost wallets...

Aaaaand here is one:

http://www.reddit.com/r/Bitcoin/comments/1bx0ws/remember_to_backup_your_bitcoins_to_multiple/

At least he found a backup  Shocked

But we will hear similar stories more often in the future... including suicides...

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April 08, 2013, 10:33:28 PM
 #27

I guess your main annoyance is with the Reddit crowd. Can't comment on that - haven't been there, biased against the site as a whole. But I may as well say that for what it's worth,
That's the same people currently haranguing the newbies into investing blindly,
I'm trying to speak out against this kind of counterproductive bullshit as often as possible. With prices rising exponentially for three months now, it needs to be drilled into everyone's head that Bitcoin is still a beta software suite, a speculative asset, and a foetal economy; if they choose to invest, good on them and best of luck, but they need to understand that that investment is speculative and liable to lose any portion of its value at any time.

It selects for naivete or predation in new users, and besides, means that it's Aunt Violet, and not people who understood the asset and its risks, losing her shirt when the correction arrives.

If there is something that will make Bitcoin succeed, it is growth of utility - greater quantity and variety of goods and services offered for BTC. If there is something that will make Bitcoin fail, it is the prevalence of users convinced that BTC is a magic box that will turn them into millionaires, and of the con-artists who have followed them here to devour them.
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April 08, 2013, 11:30:46 PM
 #28

That's right, I speculate we're going to see some bitcoin-related suicides, and the mass media will lap it up, ruining a perfectly good crypto-currency with tons of potential.

In fact, I reckon it will be promptly countered by the holier-than-thou reddit crew explaining that it wasn't a 'bitcoin suicide' but a 'finance-related' suicide, trolling their heart contents that this and that person shouldn't 'have invested more than they could afford to lose', and that the MSM is out to get the cute, innocent little bitcoin. Oh and by the way if it falls back at 50, then it's all OK, because it was at 2 one day, so it actually didn't crash at all, it multiplied its value by 25x. What? You bought at 150? What an idiot, loser, they'll say. They mined theirs you see? It was all a big laugh for everyone, didn't you know?

That's the same people currently haranguing the newbies into investing blindly, posting 'spartans, hold' meme pictures as the price fluctuates wildly, and berating everyone who might dare to have 'sold early'. You can't even post on reddit any opinion that vaguely deviates from the group-think 'BTC AT 1,000,000 LULZ' party line, without being downvoted to nothingness.

At this point bitcoin is a hoarding game. No one seems to care about the potential of the technology, or even the technology itself. It's all 'ra-ra it's passed 160, ra-ra told you so 180'.

Yes guys, it might even hit 500. The questions is why do you care so much if it does? The 3 btc you mined making you feel like a big shot hedge fund investor? Because that's what it is - a vocal minority with no real skin in the game going into full 'revenge of the geek' mode while the mass market consists of people too greedy or too dumb to realize that a currency with nothing to buy is not a currency, but an e-metal.

Everyone seems to forget what an exchange really is. More and more of the people holding BTC have bought it at 100+. I'd be curious to know what proportion the 150-200 buyers represent in the total market cap. 1%? 10%? 50%? The only thing that's sure is that it's increasing everyday, and these aren't the same people buying porshe caymans with their 300 coins.

So, back to the point, why suicides?  Once the panic sets in:
- companies that have regularly converted their BTC balances to FIAT will become insolvent, unable to disburse balances (bitzino I'm looking at you)
- because of the decentralised nature of bitcoin, trading curbs are impossible to implement
- the exchanges have proven to be unreliable. It's not even about not being able to place a sell order without lag, it's about not being able to login the website, period

There's going to be one hell of a moment, in my view (again, here, speculation) when people realize the enormity of that 2B market cap, maybe it might even reach australian-dollar level market cap. The guys who are talking about putting 1M+ in the game will pull when they get bored of the low retailer adoption (they don't have time for spartan memes I'm afraid), it will freefall 50%, and all of a sudden here goes the mortgage, here goes the dream, and the newbs won't even get to press the sell button when it's all said and done.

Anyway, rant over, have a nice evening and keep cheering to that woop woop 200 bucks 'new floor'

Not sure about suicides, but this bubble will end like all other bubbles: a lot of ruin for a lot of people.
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April 08, 2013, 11:40:07 PM
 #29



Re: how the media might use a BTC crash and the possible suicides - yes, they'll be as sensational as possible.  It's a sad comment about news in general.
Though, it would a truly financially related suicide.  Not a BTC suicide.

Corollary neq Causality


Re:  BTC-based business insolvency.  Currency exposure doth suck in volatile markets. 

Sadly, volatility truly does detract from BTC's usefulness as a currency.



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April 08, 2013, 11:45:14 PM
 #30

Just strolling through.
http://youtu.be/eujCeBC4Lh0

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April 08, 2013, 11:52:27 PM
 #31

ITT: Silly newb OP who hasn't set foot in any other part of the forum, thinks the frat-boy mentality in the speculation subforum is indicative of the entire Bitcoin economy.


OP you are idiot, here is proof, QED Good luck with your fiat brah.
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April 08, 2013, 11:55:43 PM
 #32

ITT: Silly newb OP who hasn't set foot in any other part of the forum, thinks the frat-boy mentality in the speculation subforum is indicative of the entire Bitcoin economy.


OP you are idiot, here is proof, QED Good luck with your fiat brah.
Reread the post. I'm pretty sure OP isn't even talking about Bitcointalk - they're talking about the Bitcoin section of Reddit.

If there is something that will make Bitcoin succeed, it is growth of utility - greater quantity and variety of goods and services offered for BTC. If there is something that will make Bitcoin fail, it is the prevalence of users convinced that BTC is a magic box that will turn them into millionaires, and of the con-artists who have followed them here to devour them.
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April 09, 2013, 12:03:49 AM
 #33

People come for the bubble and stay for the bitcoin. That is what happened last time. Also, your post reminded me of this:

Quote
On July 22, 1994, the police closed the offices of MMM for tax evasion. For a few days the company attempted to continue the scheme, but soon ceased operations. At that point, Invest-Consulting, one of the company's subsidiaries, owed more than 50 billion rubles in taxes (USD 26 million), and MMM itself owed between 100 billion and 3 trillion rubles to the investors (from USD 50 million to USD 1.5 billion). In the aftermath at least 50 investors, having lost all of their money, committed suicide.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/MMM_%28Ponzi_scheme_company%29

Although its pretty dumb to bet your life savings on a social and technological experiment, I am sure many people have.


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April 09, 2013, 12:33:13 AM
 #34

ITT: Silly newb OP who hasn't set foot in any other part of the forum, thinks the frat-boy mentality in the speculation subforum is indicative of the entire Bitcoin economy.


OP you are idiot, here is proof, QED Good luck with your fiat brah.
Reread the post. I'm pretty sure OP isn't even talking about Bitcointalk - they're talking about the Bitcoin section of Reddit.
Which makes it worse, no?

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April 09, 2013, 03:42:46 PM
 #35

A set, well-known inflation rate, with a known max limit, and a known date of reaching that limit
You are obviously clueless about what you're saying. Inflation and deflation depend not only on the supply of currency but also on the supply of real values (products and services). While you can control the BTC supply through some pre-established algorithm, you CAN'T control the evolution of the supply of real values on the market, therefore you CAN'T set the inflation to a specific value for a specific future date.

Quote
Short-term fluctuations in price are mostly due to demand for the currency itself
I'm still waiting for the day when these psychotic fluctuations end so that we can finally be confident in calling them "short-term" or "growing pains" or whatever.

Quote
something even your MythicalCoin can't control.
False. Look up Paul Grignon's "Digital Coin" concept and you will see that it controls inflation/deflation very well, better than any currency system I've ever heard of.
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April 09, 2013, 03:58:20 PM
 #36

A set, well-known inflation rate, with a known max limit, and a known date of reaching that limit
You are obviously clueless about what you're saying. Inflation and deflation depend not only on the supply of currency but also on the supply of real values (products and services). While you can control the BTC supply through some pre-established algorithm, you CAN'T control the evolution of the supply of real values on the market, therefore you CAN'T set the inflation to a specific value for a specific future date.
Clearly you're the clueless one here:



Some links that might help clear things up for you:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Monetary_inflation (what I was talking about)
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Money_supply
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Price_inflation (what you thought I was talking about)

Quote
demand for the currency itself, something even your MythicalCoin can't control.
False. Look up Paul Grignon's "Digital Coin" concept and you will see that it controls inflation/deflation very well, better than any currency system I've ever heard of.
No coin can control DEMAND for a currency, that's entirely dependent on the people who want (or do not want) the currency.

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April 09, 2013, 05:11:15 PM
 #37

Quote
something even your MythicalCoin can't control.
False. Look up Paul Grignon's "Digital Coin" concept and you will see that it controls inflation/deflation very well, better than any currency system I've ever heard of.
I read the brief. Some really interesting ideas there.

I don't like that the Perpetual Coin is premined (initial distribution controlled by a despot), though, and I'm unsure as to whether digital futures barter (the essence of CCs) can work without significant PC-based lubrication (which is, again, subject to inflation/deflation as normal).

If there is something that will make Bitcoin succeed, it is growth of utility - greater quantity and variety of goods and services offered for BTC. If there is something that will make Bitcoin fail, it is the prevalence of users convinced that BTC is a magic box that will turn them into millionaires, and of the con-artists who have followed them here to devour them.
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April 09, 2013, 05:14:03 PM
 #38

Given the nature of bitcoin, its market price (Mt Gox etc.) is inordinately too low for any kind of stability in a rapidly growing bitcoin economy/ecosystem. If Bitcoin really takes off and becomes entrenched as the online currency, more than it already is, then its price may stabilize somewhat, but that will probably be well north of $10k/BTC, if not $100k+. The supply of BTC is kinda limited, y'know. Grin

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April 09, 2013, 08:08:39 PM
 #39

"In the long run, we are all dead." - John Maynard Keynes
Probably the smartest thing he ever said.

I suffered through a couple of his books.  I can assure you that this was indeed the smartest thing he ever said.

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April 09, 2013, 08:45:49 PM
 #40

Given the nature of bitcoin, its market price (Mt Gox etc.) is inordinately too low for any kind of stability in a rapidly growing bitcoin economy/ecosystem. If Bitcoin really takes off and becomes entrenched as the online currency, more than it already is, then its price may stabilize somewhat, but that will probably be well north of $10k/BTC, if not $100k+. The supply of BTC is kinda limited, y'know. Grin

Very well put.
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