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Author Topic: Why are people taking such a huge risk in holding a currency that could collapse  (Read 2634 times)
Elwar
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April 08, 2013, 10:20:59 PM
 #1

The U.S. debt nearly tripled from 2002 to 2013, from $5.9 trillion to $15 trillion. This increases the chance the U.S. will let the dollar's value slide, allowing it to repay the debt with cheaper money.

Altogether, foreign countries own $5 trillion in U.S. debt (as of December 2011). If China, Japan or other major holders started dumping these holdings of Treasury notes on the secondary market, this could cause a panic leading to collapse.

A sudden dollar collapse would create global economic turmoil as investors rush to other currencies, such as bitcoin, or other assets, gold or other commodities. Demand for Treasuries would plummet, driving up interest rates. Import prices would skyrocket, causing inflation.

U.S. exports would be dirt cheap, boosting the economy briefly. Unfortunately, uncertainty, inflation and high interest rates would strangle possible business growth. Unemployment would worsen, sending the U.S. back into recession or even creating a depression.

The only way the dollar can hold its value is because it is considered the world's "reserve currency" thanks to oil and other things are traded in dollars. But that is changing.

BRICS members China and Brazil agreed on Tuesday to trade in their own currencies the equivalent of up to $30 billion per year, moving to take almost half of their trade exchanges out of the U.S. dollar zone. Taiwan and Singapore have both become offshore trading centres with direct clearing in renminbi, while Brazil has established a currency swap agreement with the mainland. The UK is expected to follow suit soon with its own swap facility.

Ok, so maybe you do not believe the dollar will collapse. Where do you keep your dollars? Hopefully not in a bank.

Confiscating the customer deposits in Cyprus banks, it seems, was not a one-off, desperate idea of a few Eurozone “troika” officials scrambling to salvage their balance sheets. A joint paper by the US Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation and the Bank of England dated December 10, 2012, shows that these plans have been long in the making; that they originated with the G20 Financial Stability Board in Basel, Switzerland; and that the result will be to deliver clear title to the banks of depositor funds.

New Zealand has a similar directive, indicating that this isn’t just an emergency measure for troubled Eurozone countries. New Zealand’s Voxy reported on March 19th:
 The National Government pushing a Cyprus-style solution to bank failure in New Zealand which will see small depositors lose some of their savings to fund big bank bailouts . . . .
 Open Bank Resolution (OBR) is Finance Minister Bill English’s favoured option dealing with a major bank failure. If a bank fails under OBR, all depositors will have their savings reduced overnight to fund the bank’s bail out.

Although few depositors realize it, legally the bank owns the depositor’s funds as soon as they are put in the bank.  Your deposits are about to become stock investments:
"An efficient path for returning the sound operations of the G-SIFI to the private sector would be provided by exchanging or converting a sufficient amount of the unsecured debt from the original creditors of the failed company [meaning the depositors] into equity [or stock]. In the U.S., the new equity would become capital in one or more newly formed operating entities. In the U.K., the same approach could be used, or the equity could be used to recapitalize the failing financial company itself—thus, the highest layer of surviving bailed-in creditors would become the owners of the resolved firm. In either country, the new equity holders would take on the corresponding risk of being shareholders in a financial institution."
No exception is indicated for “insured deposits” in the U.S., meaning those under $250,000, the deposits we thought were protected by FDIC insurance. This can hardly be an oversight, since it is the FDIC that is issuing the directive.


tl;dr The dollar bubble is nearing its end. It is about to collapse and even if it does not, the government does not plan to bail out banks so instead banks are considering your deposits as collateral to their stock purchases (in highly risky stocks).

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April 08, 2013, 11:48:46 PM
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Silly Americans, continuing to invest into the Dollar Bubble. Even listening to mainstream media it's obvious it will pop sooner rather than later.  Cool
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April 08, 2013, 11:52:16 PM
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Silly Americans bitcoiners, continuing to invest into the Dollar BTC Bubble. Even listening to mainstream media common sense or simple reason, it's obvious it will pop sooner rather than later.  Sad

FTFY  Wink
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April 08, 2013, 11:54:26 PM
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Re: Why are people taking such a huge risk in holding a currency that could collapse

Wait a minute, are you talking about dolars?

The worst enemy of Bitcoin is Mt.Gox exchange.
Elwar
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April 09, 2013, 12:07:56 AM
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Re: Why are people taking such a huge risk in holding a currency that could collapse

Wait a minute, are you talking about dolars?


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April 09, 2013, 12:38:52 AM
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Holding bitcoins is a lot riskier than having USD in a US in bank account.  A lot riskier.
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April 09, 2013, 12:56:54 AM
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I see what you did there.
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April 09, 2013, 02:16:42 AM
 #8

Dollars?

There are hordes of people still holding U.S stocks, treasury bonds, junk bonds, Fannie bonds, mortgage-backed securities. Even if you consider bitcoin to be something of absolutely no value at all, its fundamentals are still better than many of the assets I listed above, which have been bleeding since day one.


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April 09, 2013, 03:14:18 AM
 #9

Holding bitcoins is a lot riskier than having USD in a US in bank account.  A lot riskier.

you mean a lot more profitable.


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April 09, 2013, 03:18:32 AM
 #10

Holding bitcoins is a lot riskier than having USD in a US in bank account.  A lot riskier.

you mean a lot more profitable.

To put it another way, for whatever flaws there are in bitcoin, gold, etc. I prefer a currency that goes up and down at the whims of the market to one that goes down and down at the whims of the banksters.

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evolve
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April 09, 2013, 03:48:56 AM
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Holding bitcoins is a lot riskier than having USD in a US in bank account.  A lot riskier.

you mean a lot more profitable.

Until the market tanks.
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April 09, 2013, 04:08:12 AM
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If you want a safe haven, then just stick to gold at this point. Bitcoin is a good currency and all, and I fully believe that it is the currency of the future, but it is still nowhere near as safe as gold.

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mp420
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April 09, 2013, 04:10:59 AM
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I haven't sold a single bitcoin yet. Unless you count the day trading thing I took a shot at a couple of times, latest back in the double digits (I made profit, but just barely).

I'm actually more worried about the risk of exchanges going down and taking our money with them than the bubble bursting. The thing is, after the bubble bursts there is going to be a period of disbelief, during which bitcoins are easily sold to the greater fools. It happened even with Pirate when he defaulted, people were willing to buy Pirate debt with only a relatively moderate discount. And everyone who knew anything about finance was certain Pirate was a scam from the beginning.

Bitcoin is not a scam, of course. But neither is it going to be a widely used and widely recognized currency any soon.
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April 09, 2013, 04:16:12 AM
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Is anyone interested in pumping USD with me?
XXthetimeisnowXX
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April 09, 2013, 04:30:48 AM
 #15

Silly Americans bitcoiners, continuing to invest into the Dollar BTC Bubble. Even listening to mainstream media common sense or simple reason, it's obvious it will pop sooner rather than later.  Sad

FTFY  Wink

ha as you have said since it was 40? silly bitcoiners making money dont they see that they will only make a lot more money untill its 1450 per bit then they will only make marginal gains. silly bears wanting cheep coins. ya know you can get a cheep LTC!!! hoooooraaayyyyy  you can buy those and not be so grumpygills Cry

 
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April 09, 2013, 05:09:13 AM
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Actually, holding physical cash may be a very good short term 'investment'. Remember Cyprus?

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April 09, 2013, 05:12:18 AM
 #17

Holding bitcoins is a lot riskier than having USD in a US in bank account.  A lot riskier.

you mean a lot more profitable.

Until the market tanks.

How long have you been calling for that now?  Did you sell out $100 ago yet?

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April 09, 2013, 05:17:07 AM
 #18

I've been calling this a bubble since the twenties (which was like 3 months ago)....now we are at almost $200.

You are delusional if you think that kind of growth is sustainable. I stand by my statement 100%




notme
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April 09, 2013, 05:19:26 AM
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I've been calling this a bubble since the twenties (which was like 3 months ago)....now we are at almost $200.

You are delusional if you think that kind of growth is sustainable. I stand by my statement 100%

I don't think it is sustainable, but I see no reason it can't level out without crashing to the floor.  I'm just saying your bearish calls have no weight any more since you obviously jumped ship long ago and are stuck until it turns.

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April 09, 2013, 05:23:01 AM
 #20

Uh, no. I daytrade/swingtrade, and I am in and out of the market constantly.

Right now, I'm in and taking profits at $200.
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