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Author Topic: How long does it take for bitcoin value to double??  (Read 7152 times)
phlogistonq
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April 09, 2013, 02:05:57 PM
 #21

Between here and $300 are only 13k BTC.
This is the same amount as was needed to get from 150 to 200 over the last 2 days...
So perhaps $400 by the weekend is indeed possible...
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There are several different types of Bitcoin clients. The most secure are full nodes like Bitcoin-Qt, which will follow the rules of the network no matter what miners do. Even if every miner decided to create 1000 bitcoins per block, full nodes would stick to the rules and reject those blocks.
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April 09, 2013, 02:10:52 PM
 #22

Well its already pushing $214, I think $250 is possible by the end of the day EST
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April 09, 2013, 02:14:46 PM
 #23

Fasten your seatbelts, we are experiencing not a bubble but an unprecedented hyper-monetization event.
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April 09, 2013, 02:17:36 PM
 #24



I'm about to jizz in my pants!
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April 09, 2013, 02:19:40 PM
 #25

you all can have my weak coins at $400 after the double
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April 09, 2013, 02:20:22 PM
 #26


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niko
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April 09, 2013, 02:27:51 PM
 #27

I think it's more simple: we are experiencing the effect of freely available fiat (banksters coming to play) being used to purchase a hard asset (btc). Due to stupid regulations, they can't just make up funny money and walk away home with it - they have to lend it / invest it, then take profits to walk away with. Bitcoin is a perfect vehicle.

They're there, in their room.
Your mining rig is on fire, yet you're very calm.
aes1
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April 09, 2013, 02:44:51 PM
 #28

Start_rateEnd_rate#_of_daysDates
$3.125$6.251942011-12-01 to 2012-06-15
$6.25$12.51632012-06-15 to 2012-11-25
$12.5$25792012-11-25 to 2013-02-12
$25$50302013-02-12 to 2013-03-18
$50$100142013-03-18 to 2013-04-01
$100$20082013-04-01 to 2013-04-09

So... we would have exponential (et) growth if the #_of_days was constant... but now it's halving every time the value doubles. I'm not going to figure out the formula for that, but it seems that if this development continues, we reach the singularity in 8 days. Ladies and gentlemen, I hereby forecast that by 17th of April, Bitcoin is infinitely valuable.

Of course, some other factors might come into play before that. Grin
ManBearPig
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April 09, 2013, 02:49:41 PM
 #29

Daily growth for April is now 10%.

My charts (which the bears didn't like) extrapolating a few weeks of 5-6% daily growth now look obsolete.

The growth could slow down, it could speed up.

Who knows where we'll be at the end of the week.

I will add that I've been watching the markets since 2009, I've traded a BIG total since then.

I've never seen anything like this.

I tweet crypto nonsense: https://twitter.com/DunningKruger_
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April 09, 2013, 02:53:15 PM
 #30

Start_rateEnd_rate#_of_daysDates
$3.125$6.251942011-12-01 to 2012-06-15
$6.25$12.51632012-06-15 to 2012-11-25
$12.5$25792012-11-25 to 2013-02-12
$25$50302013-02-12 to 2013-03-18
$50$100142013-03-18 to 2013-04-01
$100$20082013-04-01 to 2013-04-09

So... we would have exponential (et) growth if the #_of_days was constant... but now it's halving every time the value doubles. I'm not going to figure out the formula for that, but it seems that if this development continues, we reach the singularity in 8 days. Ladies and gentlemen, I hereby forecast that by 17th of April, Bitcoin is infinitely valuable.

Of course, some other factors might come into play before that. Grin

I like your thinking.

My wife (whose birthday that day shall be) will be expecting an exceptionally expensive gift.

How about North Korea, turned into an ornamental garden?

I tweet crypto nonsense: https://twitter.com/DunningKruger_
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April 09, 2013, 03:20:16 PM
 #31

If all the mined coins are sold each day, current 2.8 billion new dollar per day will support a price of $77777.  If less than 10% coins were sold, the limitation will be around 1 million. And this does not count all the existing dollar saving accounts

The next most interesting event is: FED changed their view of economy and start to tighten. At that stage, they will sell assets for USD, compete with bitcoin. But strange things might happen, people will sell assets for bitcoin, so what really happened is that bitcoin exchange price stay the same while assets price crash big. No, I guess they dare not to do that...

Zangelbert Bingledack
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April 09, 2013, 03:37:58 PM
 #32

Obviously we'll reach complete mainstream adoption by next week Wink

No, it has to slow down - that is an absolute fact. It simply isn't possible for all the people who have never heard of Bitcoin to be fully convinced and fully invested over the coming week. That would be insane. Why am I even having to say this?

I'm a hyperbull, expecting a decent chance that each bitcoin will be worth zillions. But this double exponential growth ends this by next week. We all agree on that.

So what this really means is all bets are off. We may be in a bubble, but even if we are it could still rise another tenfold. Maybe even in a single week. But after that it must cool its jets to some degree at least.

Luckily the learning curve and Gox verification cue smoothe things out a bit and we might not have a crazy selloff when things slow down as they mathematically must.
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April 09, 2013, 03:53:11 PM
 #33

Obviously we'll reach complete mainstream adoption by next week Wink

No, it has to slow down - that is an absolute fact. It simply isn't possible for all the people who have never heard of Bitcoin to be fully convinced and fully invested over the coming week. That would be insane. Why am I even having to say this?

I'm a hyperbull, expecting a decent chance that each bitcoin will be worth zillions. But this double exponential growth ends this by next week. We all agree on that.

So what this really means is all bets are off. We may be in a bubble, but even if we are it could still rise another tenfold. Maybe even in a single week. But after that it must cool its jets to some degree at least.

Luckily the learning curve and Gox verification cue smoothe things out a bit and we might not have a crazy selloff when things slow down as they mathematically must.

I think it clear this is unsustainable, I cant think of many run ups like this that ended in a stabilization though.

If anything I've said is vaguely useful feel free to show your appreciation
btc: 1MfMjYXnHkGyRSE9f14XJsmxruuiVreEDh
bte: 8dH3WNre8DPyuj3oCFFNetTtVMXygs59t8
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April 09, 2013, 03:56:05 PM
 #34

Stability is the last thing I would forecast.
giarc
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April 09, 2013, 04:03:21 PM
 #35



Little chart I knocked together.

So good news! We can all look forward to retiring with infinite money very soon Smiley

If anything I've said is vaguely useful feel free to show your appreciation
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bte: 8dH3WNre8DPyuj3oCFFNetTtVMXygs59t8
DoomDumas
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April 09, 2013, 04:27:37 PM
 #36

400 U$ @ April 15th
Why not ?

Thanks OP for this info, well researched Smiley

now 246 on CaVirtex.com   Leading the way over Gox as for the last month or so !

I sell 1% of my coins @ 400$ and another 1% @ 800$ to have some fiat in case of a correction Tongue
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April 09, 2013, 04:32:18 PM
 #37

Because it's absurd. And with this run-up you would be silly to expect anything but a sharp, substantial and enduring drop.
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April 09, 2013, 04:33:50 PM
 #38

Too much BID, no enought ASK,.. this thing is doomed to go up alot (an order of magnitude) before the drop, if any !

Due to EXPLODE !!!

watch this :

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April 09, 2013, 04:35:47 PM
 #39


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April 09, 2013, 04:43:06 PM
 #40

Because it's absurd. And with this run-up you would be silly to expect anything but a sharp, substantial and enduring drop.

Does anyone care to (re)post the historic trend graph for Berkshire Hathaway shares? Smiley

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