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Author Topic: How long does it take for bitcoin value to double??  (Read 7159 times)
ManBearPig
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April 10, 2013, 12:58:16 PM
 #61

Extrapolating yesterday's 23% growth would bring the doubling period down to 3.35 days.

If the price closes at $282.89 that again will be 23% daily growth at Mt Gox closing prices (UTC).

I feel dizzy.

I tweet crypto nonsense: https://twitter.com/DunningKruger_
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April 10, 2013, 01:38:50 PM
 #62

Agree that its impossible to completely stop bitcoin, but it will pop the bubble as exchanges, bitpay etc will be forbiden too.

They would thrive online by operating out of territories where bitcoin is at least legal if not encouraged, the way that online gaming does now. But buying/selling bitcoin would become somewhat trickier in banned countries, for sure.

online gaming or gambling?
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April 10, 2013, 03:22:30 PM
 #63

Demonetization in this way is impossible. It will cause hyperinflation of fiat too and in result BTC will devaluate together with fiat in the end. But some people will loose all money while others will get fortunes, it will also destabilize markets. Goverment will simply ban BTC. All this ride started one or two days after legalizing BTC (i have stupid guess that this move was to spite China) and might stop like this.
Why would government ban Bitcoin but not all the other risks in the market?

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April 10, 2013, 03:45:19 PM
 #64

Because it's against goverment (rulers) interest. But I think this bubble will explode itself, without help of goverment. I just guess, hard to predict anything. Imho there is no way BTC can be wildly adopted as main currency, because it was desined as ponsi to make it's creator rich, otherwise amount of generated BTC would depend on poularity or have constant price somehow i donno. The way it goes now seems not right to me. Although maybe over years, after few bubbles it will adapt as good second virtual currency.
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April 17, 2013, 08:59:20 AM
 #65

So... we would have exponential (et) growth if the #_of_days was constant... but now it's halving every time the value doubles. I'm not going to figure out the formula for that, but it seems that if this development continues, we reach the singularity in 8 days. Ladies and gentlemen, I hereby forecast that by 17th of April, Bitcoin is infinitely valuable.

Damn! It appears that reality got in the way of my bulletproof mathematical analysis. But I'm putting up a sell order for 1 BTC at $1000000 at Mt. Gox., just in case.

(Bitstamp only allowed for a maximum price of $99,999.99. Not very forward-thinking of them, I'd say.)
Pruden
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April 17, 2013, 09:13:01 AM
 #66

I have learned a lot about financial stupidity these days... about me. Yes, I predicted a big correction, but I only partially put my money where my mouth was and sold just a few of my BTC because I wanted the price to go just a little bit higher. It's amazing what greed can do.

I haven't lost anything, and I consider those profits I never took a money well invested in my financial education. Smiley
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April 17, 2013, 09:38:12 AM
 #67

I have learned a lot about financial stupidity these days... about me. Yes, I predicted a big correction, but I only partially put my money where my mouth was and sold just a few of my BTC because I wanted the price to go just a little bit higher. It's amazing what greed can do.

I haven't lost anything, and I consider those profits I never took a money well invested in my financial education. Smiley

i did worse. i was fast enough to sell when it went down first place. then, when it shortly run uphill i was panicing i end up with no btc. so i bought. bulltrap. when it started to really go down, mtgox was not taking my panic sell order no. 2. i ended up with all coins, no fiat to buy more ...
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October 22, 2013, 07:38:36 AM
 #68

So where are we now? The price has doubled in the past 20 days...will it double again in 10 days?

Cheesy

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Zangelbert Bingledack
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October 22, 2013, 08:05:50 AM
 #69

This post shows what a bubble looks like, when the price is going parabolic not only on the linear chart but also the log chart, when the time between doublings is getting exponentially faster.

In short, a bubble in an exponential growth pattern looks like double-exponential growth - that is, exponentially increasing rates of exponential growth. For example, doubling every month would be straight exponential growth (a straight-line slope on a log chart), but doubling in a month, then two weeks, then one week would be double-exponential growth (exponential curve can be seen even on the log chart).

If you want to know when we're in a bubble, learn to recognize double-exponential growth. Study the four-year log chart daily to keep perspective. If you see curling upward even on that chart, you know people are getting carried away.
samurai1200
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October 22, 2013, 08:48:57 PM
 #70

If you want to know when we're in a bubble, learn to recognize double-exponential growth. Study the four-year log chart daily to keep perspective. If you see curling upward even on that chart, you know people are getting carried away.

 Like now Wink

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Zangelbert Bingledack
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October 23, 2013, 05:44:44 AM
 #71

If you want to know when we're in a bubble, learn to recognize double-exponential growth. Study the four-year log chart daily to keep perspective. If you see curling upward even on that chart, you know people are getting carried away.

 Like now Wink

Yep. Just a tad curly on the log chart, and very steep slope as well. Glad we're taking a little break (or are we?). On this short a run-up only a short break is needed to straighten things out again. A 20 to 30 degree angle seems nice; now we're at 45, very steep.
phlogistonq
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November 19, 2013, 01:35:18 AM
 #72

As I am typing this we just hit $820 (18/11/2013)
We doubled from $420 on the 15/11/2013 (day/month/year).

So we doubled in 3 days. We are definitely in that territory again.

I predict we will correct soon and pulled out for now. See you at $5xx again
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November 19, 2013, 01:37:19 AM
 #73

As I am typing this we just hit $820 (18/11/2013)
We doubled from $420 on the 15/11/2013 (day/month/year).

So we doubled in 3 days. We are definitely in that territory again.

I predict we will correct soon and pulled out for now. See you at $5xx again

nice call  Grin
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November 19, 2013, 02:22:43 AM
 #74

Question:  How long does it typically take for the USD exchange rate of bitcoin to double?

Answer:
Start_rateEnd_rate#_of_daysDates
$3.125$6.251942011-12-01 to 2012-06-15
$6.25$12.51632012-06-15 to 2012-11-25
$12.5$25792012-11-25 to 2013-02-12
$25$50302013-02-12 to 2013-03-18
$50$100142013-03-18 to 2013-04-01
$100$20082013-04-01 to 2013-04-09


Given this timetable, would anybody like to make a guess at a range of dates between which they believe the exchange rate will reach $400?

Are there some easy-to-use historical time-series data-sets available for mucking around with?  Interested, has anyone tried to apply stochastic volatility estimators (i.e: GARCH) and compared to, i.e., outlier penny stocks with ultra-high volatility?  I'd imagine BTCUSD blows doors off most all of them, especially if we start looking at sums of moving averages to try to capture sustained instantaneous volatility...

Then again... just thinking out loud... perhaps working with, i.e., de-trended logarithmic data might surprise us?  Conceivably, BTCUSD (or, I dunno, BTCinsert-your-favorite-real-value-estimator here...) is not so horribly volatile as it's perceived to be, once we give it credit for an innate tendency to exhibit unusually high exponential growth?

payb.tc/formerlyanonymous
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