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Author Topic: BFL is Probably doing fine financially.  (Read 2441 times)
chiropteran
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April 09, 2013, 02:41:23 PM
 #1

 A lot of speculation about how they are bleeding money and losing pre-orders right and left.  However, think about the basis of their business for a minute.  If bitcoin fails, they fail.  Wouldn't it be logical for them to make at least a modest investment in bitcoins directly if they are going to invest millions in ASIC development?  

I'm guessing that BFL probably has tens of million worth of bitcoin stockpiled (remember, they were around back when BTC was a small fraction of the current price), and is in no danger at all of going under or failing due to lack of funds.

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Tehfiend
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April 09, 2013, 02:58:04 PM
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I'm sure they exchanged all BTC for USD to avoid the volatile markets from wiping out their funds. I am sure they are funding their operation in USD so it would be smart as nobody can promise that BTC won't be worth $2 tomorrow.
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April 09, 2013, 03:00:28 PM
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A lot of speculation about how they are bleeding money and losing pre-orders right and left.  However, think about the basis of their business for a minute.  If bitcoin fails, they fail.  Wouldn't it be logical for them to make at least a modest investment in bitcoins directly if they are going to invest millions in ASIC development? 

I'm guessing that BFL probably has tens of million worth of bitcoin stockpiled (remember, they were around back when BTC was a small fraction of the current price), and is in no danger at all of going under or failing due to lack of funds.

It depends if "they" holding plenty of BTC is BFL or the inviduals behind it. Most likely Josh&Co won't pump their private funds into BFL if they have a change to shut it down cleanly with bankruptcy and blaim that on trolls and massive refunds.

BFL would be dead many times already if they didn't continue the fraudulent advertising with impossible delivery date promises.

Refunds are hitting them hard already, thats a partial reason to the increased prices. "All sales are final" is completely aimed to avoid refunds in the future.
chiropteran
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April 09, 2013, 04:34:13 PM
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I'm sure they exchanged all BTC for USD to avoid the volatile markets from wiping out their funds. I am sure they are funding their operation in USD so it would be smart as nobody can promise that BTC won't be worth $2 tomorrow.

I'm not talking about orders, I'm talking about holdings and investment.

If BTC crashes down to nothing or close to nothing, BFL is finished anyway: nobody will pay thousands of dollars for an ASIC that mines BTC worth pennies.  They were already betting on BTC success through millions of dollars worth of investments, would it makes sense for them to bet on bitcoin with a least a few thousand dollars worth of actual BTC holdings?

>I am sure they are funding their operation in USD so it would be smart as nobody can promise that BTC won't be worth $2 tomorrow.

If BTC was worth $2 tomorrow, they would be finished- nobody is going to buy an ASIC to mine $2 coins.  They lose no matter what if BTC crashes, so they might as well have bought some when it was low.

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April 09, 2013, 04:54:31 PM
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A lot of speculation about how they are bleeding money and losing pre-orders right and left.  However, think about the basis of their business for a minute.  If bitcoin fails, they fail.  Wouldn't it be logical for them to make at least a modest investment in bitcoins directly if they are going to invest millions in ASIC development? 

I'm guessing that BFL probably has tens of million worth of bitcoin stockpiled (remember, they were around back when BTC was a small fraction of the current price), and is in no danger at all of going under or failing due to lack of funds.

If they had 10 million bitcoins, why would they bother failing at this? Why would they invest in generating more bitcoins for other people to devalue their $200 million in coins they hold themselves?

Get a clue, they're f*****

Tehfiend
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April 09, 2013, 04:59:07 PM
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Quote
I'm not talking about orders, I'm talking about holdings and investment.
Yeah, me too.

Quote
If BTC crashes down to nothing or close to nothing, BFL is finished anyway: nobody will pay thousands of dollars for an ASIC that mines BTC worth pennies.  They were already betting on BTC success through millions of dollars worth of investments, would it makes sense for them to bet on bitcoin with a least a few thousand dollars worth of actual BTC holdings?

If BTC was worth $2 tomorrow, they would be finished- nobody is going to buy an ASIC to mine $2 coins.  They lose no matter what if BTC crashes, so they might as well have bought some when it was low.

Not true IMO. While they might not take any new orders, they have plenty of existing orders to fulfill. If they held onto BTC and market crashed THEN they would be in trouble and unable to fulfill any orders/refunds. If they exchanged to USD then they simply fulfill the massive amount of existing orders and then close up shop if there is no longer interest in their product.
chiropteran
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April 09, 2013, 05:11:42 PM
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If they had 10 million bitcoins, why would they bother failing at this? Why would they invest in generating more bitcoins for other people to devalue their $200 million in coins they hold themselves?

Get a clue, they're f*****


Maybe you are not good at math.  BFL announced the ASIC devices when BTC were $8 each.  They could have picked up $100k worth of BTC as a side investment ($100k being a small percentage of their total capital required to manufacture ASICs) in their market, which would be worth $2.8 million today.

Also, if you think ASIC will devalue bitcoins, you need to look at some history.  Difficulty increases have resulted in value increases EVERY SINGLE TIME.  Not once has the difficulty skyrocketed while price crashed, never.

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April 09, 2013, 05:18:04 PM
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If they had 10 million bitcoins, why would they bother failing at this? Why would they invest in generating more bitcoins for other people to devalue their $200 million in coins they hold themselves?

Get a clue, they're f*****


Maybe you are not good at math.  BFL announced the ASIC devices when BTC were $8 each.  They could have picked up $100k worth of BTC as a side investment ($100k being a small percentage of their total capital required to manufacture ASICs) in their market, which would be worth $2.8 million today.

Also, if you think ASIC will devalue bitcoins, you need to look at some history.  Difficulty increases have resulted in value increases EVERY SINGLE TIME.  Not once has the difficulty skyrocketed while price crashed, never.
Can't use preorder money like that, its fraud. In the same way I can't sell you a computer delivered in 6 weeks and gamble it all in the mean time.

Because of outside factors.... supply and demand rules stay the same. If people love bitcoins and they want to invest, which scenario is going to hold a higher value... The one with 100m coins in circulation, or the one with 200m coins in circulation.

chiropteran
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April 09, 2013, 05:41:40 PM
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Can't use preorder money like that, its fraud. In the same way I can't sell you a computer delivered in 6 weeks and gamble it all in the mean time.


Please indicate where I suggested they use pre-order money to buy bitcoin.  I didn't.  I'm under the impression BFL had *some* capital to start up with, especially considering they had been producing and selling FPGA devices long before preorders for ASIC started.

The one with 100m coins in circulation, or the one with 200m coins in circulation.

Do you have any idea what you are talking about?  How did you even get out of the newbie lock on the forum without discovering the basics of bitcoin?  There will never be more than 21M bitcoin.  Mining produces coins at a very regular rate, thanks to difficulty adjustment, and ASIC certainly won't mine more coins than GPU.  I think you need to go read some basic FAQ about bitcoin before making idiotic statements about them that aren't true.

KGambler
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April 09, 2013, 05:48:28 PM
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Chiro, you aren't making any sense.  Listen to what people are trying to tell you.  Your assumptions are bad and your "guess" that they have 100,000+ BTC is outrageous.
chiropteran
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April 09, 2013, 05:59:23 PM
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Chiro, you aren't making any sense.  Listen to what people are trying to tell you.  

I'm sorry.  My assumption may or may not be incorrect, but I don't see the harm in discussing it rationally.

On the other hand, "dogie" talking about there being 200M BTC instead of 100M because of ASIC is just plain provably false.  It's completely impossible and it just shows that he doesn't have any idea what he is talking about.  Needless to say, if he can't understand the basic rules of bitcoin than I find it hard to take any part of his argument seriously.

>Your assumptions are bad and your "guess" that they have 100,000+ BTC is outrageous.

 I did the math, I wrote clear numbers, I don't understand how you can fail to read it.  $100k worth of bitcoin is NOT 100k bitcoin.  I guess this subforum is just full of trolls that can neither read English nor understand math.

KGambler
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April 09, 2013, 06:08:28 PM
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Wouldn't it be logical for them to make at least a modest investment in bitcoins directly if they are going to invest millions in ASIC development? 

No.  You argue that their business is reliant on the future of BTC, and then argue that this means they should throw even more of their capital directly into BTC investment.  This doesn't make much sense.


Quote
I'm guessing that BFL probably has tens of million worth of bitcoin stockpiled (remember, they were around back when BTC was a small fraction of the current price), and is in no danger at all of going under or failing due to lack of funds.

This is an outrageous assumption.  It's not really worth discussing.  This forum is full of people who are interested in BTC.  I guess most of us are bitcoin millionaires?  "He like bitcoins...  he probably bought 100K of them and held onto them all!"  Uh, no.  Fail.
chiropteran
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April 09, 2013, 06:43:06 PM
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No.  You argue that their business is reliant on the future of BTC, and then argue that this means they should throw even more of their capital directly into BTC investment.  This doesn't make much sense.

Yes, I understand your opinion, but you need to show WHY you think such a thing.

Here is the chain of logic I am following:

1 BFL is in the business of creating bitcoin mining hardware.
2 Bitcoin is likely to increase in value because of this hardware.
3 Since BFL is in bitcoin related business, they should know this.
4 Since they are directly propping up the bitcoin value, they should take advantage of that and invest some directly in bitcoin.

Your argument seems to boil down to the following: if bitcoin fails, BFL fails, so they don't want to invest in BTC because if it fails now they double fail.  The problem with your argument is there is no such thing as double failing.  A business is either successful or it is not.  If bitcoin crashes and burns and nobody cares about ASIC and BFL fails because of this, the difference between BFL having some cash assets or BFL having some BTC assets is effectively zero- they are finished either way.


Quote
This is an outrageous assumption.  It's not really worth discussing.  This forum is full of people who are interested in BTC.  I guess most of us are bitcoin millionaires?  "He like bitcoins...  he probably bought 100K of them and held onto them all!"  Uh, no.  Fail.

Sounds like you have some sour grapes.  You *don't* have any bitcoin investments?  I think you might be in the minority if you don't.  Sorry to hear about your loss.  Looking at your post history I can confirm you are just an anti-BFL troll, I guess you think your lack of personal investment wisdom carries over to everyone else.

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April 09, 2013, 06:54:18 PM
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What you are describing sounds remarkably similar to a pump and dump scheme (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pump_and_dump).
chiropteran
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April 09, 2013, 07:15:51 PM
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What you are describing sounds remarkably similar to a pump and dump scheme (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pump_and_dump).


No, it's the Wegman's strategy. 
http://articles.businessinsider.com/2011-09-19/strategy/30174700_1_wegmans-supermarket-customers
They buy up real estate, build one of their awesome stores, and make money leasing the surrounding real estate.  They add value to something, so it just makes logical sense to purchase it at the previous low value and sell at the high value.  It's been incredibly successful for them.  ASIC do the same thing for bitcoin. 

Pump & Dump implies adding no real value, but simply hype.  That is not what is going on here.

glendall
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April 09, 2013, 07:32:18 PM
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What you guys talking about?  BFL shipped last week!

/heavy sarcasm
dogie
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April 09, 2013, 07:41:08 PM
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Can't use preorder money like that, its fraud. In the same way I can't sell you a computer delivered in 6 weeks and gamble it all in the mean time.


Please indicate where I suggested they use pre-order money to buy bitcoin.  I didn't.  I'm under the impression BFL had *some* capital to start up with, especially considering they had been producing and selling FPGA devices long before preorders for ASIC started.

The one with 100m coins in circulation, or the one with 200m coins in circulation.

Do you have any idea what you are talking about?  How did you even get out of the newbie lock on the forum without discovering the basics of bitcoin?  There will never be more than 21M bitcoin.  Mining produces coins at a very regular rate, thanks to difficulty adjustment, and ASIC certainly won't mine more coins than GPU.  I think you need to go read some basic FAQ about bitcoin before making idiotic statements about them that aren't true.

Thanks herp derp, but it was an example scenario with double the currency available. Avoid the topic, its okay.

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April 09, 2013, 07:44:47 PM
 #18

A lot of speculation about how they are bleeding money and losing pre-orders right and left.  However, think about the basis of their business for a minute.  If bitcoin fails, they fail.  Wouldn't it be logical for them to make at least a modest investment in bitcoins directly if they are going to invest millions in ASIC development?  

I'm guessing that BFL probably has tens of million worth of bitcoin stockpiled (remember, they were around back when BTC was a small fraction of the current price), and is in no danger at all of going under or failing due to lack of funds.

It's nothing more than speculation. Just because a handful of bitcointalk people are pulling out on orders for a few singles or even a minirig doesn't mean that there aren't many, many more whose investments are several orders of magnitudes greater than the sum of all requested refunds.

Also, we have absolutely no idea what their profit margin is like. 

If you ignore all the bears, you only hear bulls.
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April 09, 2013, 08:16:56 PM
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A lot of speculation about how they are bleeding money and losing pre-orders right and left.  However, think about the basis of their business for a minute.  If bitcoin fails, they fail.  Wouldn't it be logical for them to make at least a modest investment in bitcoins directly if they are going to invest millions in ASIC development?  

I'm guessing that BFL probably has tens of million worth of bitcoin stockpiled (remember, they were around back when BTC was a small fraction of the current price), and is in no danger at all of going under or failing due to lack of funds.

It's nothing more than speculation. Just because a handful of bitcointalk people are pulling out on orders for a few singles or even a minirig doesn't mean that there aren't many, many more whose investments are several orders of magnitudes greater than the sum of all requested refunds.

Also, we have absolutely no idea what their profit margin is like.

Please tell me you are joking. Just because one has no(unobtainable) incontrovertible evidence does *NOT* mean one must suspend their common sense.



22 employees(presumably with 22salaries) + 1 year with zero products to ship? Alleged respins, pushed back shipping dates, blown power estimates, etc...add infinity. Please use your head.

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April 09, 2013, 08:24:17 PM
 #20

You should consider the amount of value that goes into BFL as BTC price rises.

Nobody is going to sell BTC now, and everyone wants to buy; thus the BTC price rockets... It's called a deflationary spiral, but for BFL this is jackpot:

Because those who do sell, actually buy BFL.

If you look at the BFL order numbers, the orders went from ~300 "order views" per day after launch back in 2012 to ~600 right before the SC price doubled. Edit: and now we're back to pre SC price doubling BTC price = 10!

I suspect far far far more of these potential purchases were real bitpay investments of the BTC price appreciation.

BFL is the ONLY viable outlet for investing BTC in any product, specially financial.

Who cares how much gold is worth when you manufacture shovels!

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