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Author Topic: Within 1 week I think there's a small chance BTC will crash from $240 to $160  (Read 1092 times)
MGUK
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April 09, 2013, 03:39:49 PM
 #1

Comparing the 2011 crash to now, I think within there is a chance that within 1 week, BTC will "crash" from $240 down to around $130.

I say "I think there is a chance" because it's naive to conclusively say the market will repeat itself. There's so many other factors to take into account.

The evidence for this chance:

Graph of past 2 months
http://bitcoincharts.com/charts/mtgoxUSD#rg60zczsg2013-02-10zeg2013-04-10ztgSzm1g10zm2g25zv

Graph of past 2 months leading up to 2011 crash
http://bitcoincharts.com/charts/mtgoxUSD#czsg2011-04-8zeg2011-06-8ztgSzm1g10zm2g25zv

load them in separate tabs, toggle between the 2.

You notice 2 - 3 small peaks in about the same place, and a pretty similar growth pattern. 2011 had a noticeable peak at $10, went up to $30 and then down to around $15 before sinking lower (made worse by hacks at the time.)

I wouldn't be surprised if it just carried on rising though - after all there's no similarity in relative trade volume. If it did crash, I have faith it would recover in the long run.


Any thoughts?

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physalis
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April 09, 2013, 03:46:50 PM
 #2

You're trying to read in tealeaves bro. Don't do that, it's pointless.
The situation right now is very different from back then. It might crash at some point, or it might not. Nobody knows.
Going as far as predicting specific values *where* it will crash, just because the pattern on the past chart looks similar is just unreasonable. The crash in 2011 had a very specific reason, one that is highly unlikely will come again this time.

Also, for some reason the site isn't loading anything for me right now, so I can't even check your charts out :/
MGUK
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April 09, 2013, 03:53:08 PM
 #3

awwww but the graphs are the best bit!!!!

I agree though, that's why I dotted numerous disclaimers that it's equally (if not more so) as likely that it wont happen.

I've been following BTC since the last crash. However, I only have like 2BTC I bought for about $10 just after last crash.

It's no benefit or cost for me to mention it though, just on the off chance it does happen! I tried to do it in the least scaremongering/retarded sounding way:)
SilentSonicBoom
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April 09, 2013, 04:07:15 PM
 #4

Bitcoin is currently entering a parabolic rise in price. How long it lasts is anyone's guess. Look up tulipmania for an example.

BlueBanderBear
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April 09, 2013, 04:09:08 PM
 #5

What was the reason for the 2011 crash?
digitalfog
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April 09, 2013, 04:11:07 PM
 #6

The interesting thing is:  The parabolic rise is happening over a very very short period of time.

When looking at this subjectively, *hardly anyone uses bitcoin yet.  Once adoption takes place...the rockets will fire.
MGUK
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April 09, 2013, 04:15:53 PM
 #7

The interesting thing is:  The parabolic rise is happening over a very very short period of time.

When looking at this subjectively, *hardly anyone uses bitcoin yet.  Once adoption takes place...the rockets will fire.

I agree. It's a recognised stage of currency development.

Ideally, at some point, bitcoin will reach some kind of equilibrium letting the price settle at some level (or at least not fluctuate so wildly) but until then, it's anyone's guess!
bear1981
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April 09, 2013, 04:18:21 PM
 #8

You have more European people becoming aware of Bitcoin everyday now, even talks of countries using it to get around imposed sanctions. It won't be long before this really really explodes.

I'm seriously thinking of buying more now at $223 because we will probably look back and say - remember when you could buy a bitcoin for $200?! I bought my first lot at $70ish and didn't want to buy at $80 because I thought it was too expensive at that price.

Hopefully soon we will only be talking in milibitcoin so normal people will happily invest £100 in 14.3 milibitcoin because it sounds like you get more for your money. (might have my maths wrong there)
bb113
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April 09, 2013, 04:19:33 PM
 #9

Bitcoin is currently entering a parabolic rise in price. How long it lasts is anyone's guess. Look up tulipmania for an example.

Have you looked up tulip mania? It was the governments fault. Also no tulips ever actually exchanged hands, it lasted about 6 months, and there was only a 20x increase.
MGUK
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April 09, 2013, 04:22:08 PM
 #10

You have more European people becoming aware of Bitcoin everyday now, even talks of countries using it to get around imposed sanctions. It won't be long before this really really explodes.

I'm seriously thinking of buying more now at $223 because we will probably look back and say - remember when you could buy a bitcoin for $200?! I bought my first lot at $70ish and didn't want to buy at $80 because I thought it was too expensive at that price.

Hopefully soon we will only be talking in milibitcoin so normal people will happily invest £100 in 14.3 milibitcoin because it sounds like you get more for your money. (might have my maths wrong there)

Yup, I think I'll be buying more still. Kinda feel a bit of an idiot just knowing that I've paid less than $10 for a BTC, and I think Britcoin still have 2 - 3BTC of mine. **sigh**

I think there will be a crash at somepoint, e.g. more than a 20% drop over a day. The growth at the moment is too much. But in the long term, I wouldn't be surprised to see its get to $300 - $500 and even more.
bear1981
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April 09, 2013, 04:27:25 PM
 #11

The media are funny - when there was a 10% "crash" yesterday, the idiots couldn't wait to Tweet it. Little did they know it went back up and beyond in a matter of hours lol.

People just need to chill out. Bitcoin will only grow, people trust it as no one can take it from you or restrict you.

This panic is because a lot of btc owners at the mo are computer geeks who are holding a lot of £ worth of btc in their mind wallets and don't know what to do. Just relax guys and enjoy it, it will have its little troughs now and again but I truly believe that those who hold on to their coins will be known one day as bitcoin millionaires and your trust will be rewarded.

(while I was typing it creeped to a record $225 (air punch)) -
Aahzman
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April 09, 2013, 04:47:01 PM
 #12

Within 1 week I think there's a small chance of Katy Perry breaking into my condo and initiating a hot three-way with my wife and I.





It might be an infinitesimally small chance, approaching zero %, but still statistically possible.
wiak2
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April 09, 2013, 04:50:46 PM
 #13

We'll keep on rising til Thursday, then have our pre-weekend dip before returning to the previous high.
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April 09, 2013, 04:59:28 PM
 #14

It might be an infinitesimally small chance, approaching zero %, but still statistically possible.
I have a feeling the chances of this happening are around the above.

Bitcoins are getting popular now, yes, however the only thing that can really bring it down is something like a country ban on mining or distributing.  Dips are expected as well, but that's the normal way of economics.  We might see something around 10 years from now and then 50 years from then ... if this lasts that long.
Aahzman
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April 09, 2013, 05:04:42 PM
 #15

My point was that anybody can claim there's a "small chance" of just about any possible thing you can think of happening.
wildbud
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April 09, 2013, 05:10:42 PM
 #16

Even if it crashes back to $160 BTC are very profitable to mine. It would be nice to see some sort of correction in the price to give us a bottom floor for the currency.
conspirosphere.tk
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April 09, 2013, 05:26:41 PM
 #17

Even if it crashes back to $160 BTC are very profitable to mine. It would be nice to see some sort of correction in the price to give us a bottom floor for the currency.

Maybe there is "no floor", since if it starts crashing seriously most buyers would stay on the sidelines waiting for a bottom, but since there is not any "real world" reference about a "fair price" for BTC, maybe we could plunge back to <10 USD in a heartbeat.
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April 09, 2013, 05:32:01 PM
 #18

Even if it crashes back to $160 BTC are very profitable to mine. It would be nice to see some sort of correction in the price to give us a bottom floor for the currency.

Maybe there is "no floor", since if it starts crashing seriously most buyers would stay on the sidelines waiting for a bottom, but since there is not any "real world" reference about a "fair price" for BTC, maybe we could plunge back to <10 USD in a heartbeat.

Not less than 10, unless there's protocol failure/major bug discovery or something. I'll be trying to vacuum up a lot more at $10 each; should've vacuumed up a lot more when they were <$15. Hindsight is so helpful. *sigh*

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MGUK
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April 09, 2013, 06:14:01 PM
 #19

It might be an infinitesimally small chance, approaching zero %, but still statistically possible.

Thanks for agreeing I'm right Wink

But yeah, I don't necessarily believe it's going to happen. As I said, it's an interesting correlation - it would be silly of to infer any kind of definite causation.

Unless it drops below $20, I'm still making a few dollars. Literally a few.... like 15.
idividebyzero
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April 09, 2013, 06:25:21 PM
 #20

we've been hearing this since it was $60
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