Whither Europe?

[OROBTC]

...

Europe is the world's largest economic zone with a little larger GNP than the USA.  Yet we have all heard of the severe economic (and cultural because of migrants) problems.

I am an American but very much a "Friend of Europe".  In the parts that our family has visited, we feel pretty comfortable, as European values are pretty similar to American ones.  The food is good, the infrastructure probably better than the USA's.

Here in this thread, I invite discussion and comments on where Europe is heading.

Martin Armstrong (an economic forecaster who has a fan base and a huge supercomputer grinding out economic analysis) just wrote the below short piece on the prospects for Europe breaking up:

https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/international-news/europes-current-economy/europe-starting-to-break-apart/

* * *

I particularly invite Europeans to comment!  We (I) need perspectives from bitcointalk members as to what you think is happening there!  Here is a list of various subjects all pertaining to Europe now, but I encourage comments on anything that forum members have.

--  Migrants from Muslim countries (appears to us Americans as a huge problem)
--  Continuing problems in the banking system (both "Club Med", but also even mighty Deutsche Bank)
--  Do Europeans living close to Russia view that country as a threat?
--  How likely would you see a break-up of the Eurozone or the Euro currency?

[1714130664]

1714130664

[1714130664]

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[azguard]

This is interesting topic with good questions

The European migrant crisis began in last year, when traveling through Mediterranean Sea or through Southeast Europe migrants went for northern Europe. Off course lot of problems occur some states made barb wire fences over whole border other deported back, but here main rele will be if Turkey opens borders then it will be very bad for Europe.

On Russia view that is something else think that major moves in USA Russia politics will be made after Trump is officially pronounce as president. Dont think it will have some bigger influence in this in next month.

For euro i have been reading and heard lot of rumor but no one expected that GB will exit Europe Union i was thinking more on Germany cuz they wanted to get back deutsche mark for quite some time. But i dont expect to see any new break up in EU and euro will remain how it is for now think that after Trump is officially pronounce as president dollar will be at closes exchange range in history so far.

[Jet Cash]

Do you mean Europe or the EU - don't forget that Russia is a European country, but not a member of the EU. The EU is trying to suck in some non-European countries to try to prop up the moribund DoucheBank. Hopefully we ( the UK ) can get out of the EU fairly fast, and start to rebuild our economy after the destruction and theft that resulted from membership of the EU.

The EU was only started as a stage in the path to globalism, and to reduce the cost of German exports. Now that the world is turning away from globalism, the EU should be broken up quickly to allow it member "states" to rebuild their countries.

[Sithara007]

Do you mean Europe or the EU - don't forget that Russia is a European country, but not a member of the EU. The EU is trying to suck in some non-European countries to try to prop up the moribund DoucheBank. Hopefully we ( the UK ) can get out of the EU fairly fast, and start to rebuild our economy after the destruction and theft that resulted from membership of the EU.

The EU was only started as a stage in the path to globalism, and to reduce the cost of German exports. Now that the world is turning away from globalism, the EU should be broken up quickly to allow it member "states" to rebuild their countries.

He probably meant the European Union, which is slowly disintegrating as we debate about its future. I don't know about the future of the United Kingdom.... Merkel want the UK to adopt freedom of movement... that nullifies the very purpose of Brexit.

[tabnloz]

Can't offer too much insight on Italy or Europe, but looks like things will come to a head soon.

Watched some Mark Blyth on youtube, found his explanations on the EU quite good.

There are always signals given and maybe the recent article in the German press on the need for germany to possibly leave the Euro is one?

2017 will continue with the pwning of the system.

Popcorn for those hedged with bitcoin.

Lube for the butthurt.

MA's overall thesis of capital flowing back to US, Dow >20k & more, USD up before a bust looks frighteningly possible.

{edit: and rates are rising when the world is in a massively levered up bond bubble}

[Lucius]

...

Europe is the world's largest economic zone with a little larger GNP than the USA.  Yet we have all heard of the severe economic (and cultural because of migrants) problems.

I am an American but very much a "Friend of Europe".  In the parts that our family has visited, we feel pretty comfortable, as European values are pretty similar to American ones.  The food is good, the infrastructure probably better than the USA's.

Here in this thread, I invite discussion and comments on where Europe is heading.

Martin Armstrong (an economic forecaster who has a fan base and a huge supercomputer grinding out economic analysis) just wrote the below short piece on the prospects for Europe breaking up:

https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/international-news/europes-current-economy/europe-starting-to-break-apart/

* * *

I particularly invite Europeans to comment!  We (I) need perspectives from bitcointalk members as to what you think is happening there!  Here is a list of various subjects all pertaining to Europe now, but I encourage comments on anything that forum members have.

--  Migrants from Muslim countries (appears to us Americans as a huge problem)
--  Continuing problems in the banking system (both "Club Med", but also even mighty Deutsche Bank)
--  Do Europeans living close to Russia view that country as a threat?
--  How likely would you see a break-up of the Eurozone or the Euro currency?

My personal opinion is that Europe is not going in the right direction,and many things are actually much worse than it is displayed to public.In fact, all the countries of Western and Central Europe lose their population,so in the near future we are facing with great lack of work force.That is why migrant policy did some stupid things in the recent past,we all see results of that.Some countries can become less secure for life,migrants do not want to work.

Regarding Russia and country that are close to them I see lot of news that all countries that are close to the border of Russia requires greater protection from NATO in fear of experiencing fate of Ukraina.In my opinion if Russians move in an attack they would conquered half of Europe,before they are stopped.But they are not stupid to do so and start a new world war.

I think the break-up of Eurozone&Euro has a good chance in the future,if we remember Greece and how much money was invested in order to save them.If something like that is happened again this would strongly shaken Eurozone.Nobody wants to pay for other people's debts.

[Pab]

Good time to start that thread,look forex,we are whitness of historic moment,euro to dollar is below 1.05 support level,now gate to 1 euro to 1 dollar is open,i dont think it is only becouse of yesterday FED decision
If euro will not back to above 1.05 it will be begining of the end of euro currency

Europe was cool without euro,sweet inflation is south europe countrys and strong economys in north countrys
balance,no problem

European Union is cool idea but not like it is now,islamic people are any problem,thay are living in Europe from ages,Russia could be not problem if Europe will be unifly

[LTU_btc]

Illegal migrants are serious problem for Western Europe. There are lot of refugees from Syria. But biggest problem that there are lot economical migrants from other African countries, who are only want to live easy and comfortable without working anywhere. And it's hard to control movement of migrants, because mostly EU countries are in Schengen zone.
Russia is serious threat for Estern Europe. They dislocated big part of their military near EU borders. Europe can't feel safe and this is the reason why NATO send their forces to Eastern Europe. And Russia calls it as provocation. But it's clear that Russia meakes provocation.
Europe are in serious crisis and they don't know right direction. In Western Europe radical politics become popular. Brexit, radical candidates to France president post, Italy referandum. Next year elections in Germany will be and I'm don't sure sure that Merkel will stay in her post. Radical politics break stability of Europe, and can even destroy EU.

[wxa7115]

Do you mean Europe or the EU - don't forget that Russia is a European country, but not a member of the EU. The EU is trying to suck in some non-European countries to try to prop up the moribund DoucheBank. Hopefully we ( the UK ) can get out of the EU fairly fast, and start to rebuild our economy after the destruction and theft that resulted from membership of the EU.

The EU was only started as a stage in the path to globalism, and to reduce the cost of German exports. Now that the world is turning away from globalism, the EU should be broken up quickly to allow it member "states" to rebuild their countries.

He probably meant the European Union, which is slowly disintegrating as we debate about its future. I don't know about the future of the United Kingdom.... Merkel want the UK to adopt freedom of movement... that nullifies the very purpose of Brexit.

Yeah they are trying to somehow keep the UK as a disguised member of the union, personally I think the UK needs to get out and as far as possible from the EU since it seems it may implode in the next decade or two.

[OROBTC]

...

What about matters that affect tourists like street crime?

Yes, I know that street crime is not necessarily an important issue in Europe (it is a pretty important issue here), but I have heard stories about immigrant gangs attacking people in the streets.  If that is a BIG DEAL that would affect tourism, which I imagine (?) would affect ALL the rest of a country's economy.

* * *

Also re immigrants, we read here that they are NOT "fitting in", America used to be famous in that all immigrants "became Americans".  This is changing somewhat due to OUR own illegal immigrants NOT wanting to fit in.

[Lucius]

...

What about matters that affect tourists like street crime?

Yes, I know that street crime is not necessarily an important issue in Europe (it is a pretty important issue here), but I have heard stories about immigrant gangs attacking people in the streets.  If that is a BIG DEAL that would affect tourism, which I imagine (?) would affect ALL the rest of a country's economy.

* * *

Also re immigrants, we read here that they are NOT "fitting in", America used to be famous in that all immigrants "became Americans".  This is changing somewhat due to OUR own illegal immigrants NOT wanting to fit in.

Street crime is on the rise,especially in Germany which has received over one million immigrants and they say that around 100 000 of them will be turn to a some kind of crime.Also they estimated that some 40 000 imigrants has something to do with terrorism and that represent a potential security risk.

What you read about immigrant gangs is true,I also heard from some friends who work in Germany that there was a lot of that type of attack in broad daylight,they targeted cell phones,laptops,wallets watches, jewelry.

These immigrants that we're talking about are the complete opposite to the people who live in Europe,they want to live their way of life and do not respect anyone or anything.I am not against it to help people in need,but in this way Europe's only harmed itself currently and much more for the future.

[Carlsen]

...

What about matters that affect tourists like street crime?

Yes, I know that street crime is not necessarily an important issue in Europe (it is a pretty important issue here), but I have heard stories about immigrant gangs attacking people in the streets.  If that is a BIG DEAL that would affect tourism, which I imagine (?) would affect ALL the rest of a country's economy.

* * *

Also re immigrants, we read here that they are NOT "fitting in", America used to be famous in that all immigrants "became Americans".  This is changing somewhat due to OUR own illegal immigrants NOT wanting to fit in.

Street crime is on the rise,especially in Germany which has received over one million immigrants and they say that around 100 000 of them will be turn to a some kind of crime.Also they estimated that some 40 000 imigrants has something to do with terrorism and that represent a potential security risk.

What you read about immigrant gangs is true,I also heard from some friends who work in Germany that there was a lot of that type of attack in broad daylight,they targeted cell phones,laptops,wallets watches, jewelry.

These immigrants that we're talking about are the complete opposite to the people who live in Europe,they want to live their way of life and do not respect anyone or anything.I am not against it to help people in need,but in this way Europe's only harmed itself currently and much more for the future.

I can't agree to that. The real crime problem Germany faces started many years ago.
There are organized gangs from the poor east of Europe, or Russia.
Traveling across Germany, commiting one buglary after the othere and then returning home.
They are hard to catch because they move fast, more and more are coming every year because back home they turn out to be wealthy and that inspires others.
Of course immigrants commit crimes, but those organized gangs are fare worse.

[eternalgloom]

...

What about matters that affect tourists like street crime?

Yes, I know that street crime is not necessarily an important issue in Europe (it is a pretty important issue here), but I have heard stories about immigrant gangs attacking people in the streets.  If that is a BIG DEAL that would affect tourism, which I imagine (?) would affect ALL the rest of a country's economy.

* * *

Also re immigrants, we read here that they are NOT "fitting in", America used to be famous in that all immigrants "became Americans".  This is changing somewhat due to OUR own illegal immigrants NOT wanting to fit in.

Street crime is on the rise,especially in Germany which has received over one million immigrants and they say that around 100 000 of them will be turn to a some kind of crime.Also they estimated that some 40 000 imigrants has something to do with terrorism and that represent a potential security risk.

What you read about immigrant gangs is true,I also heard from some friends who work in Germany that there was a lot of that type of attack in broad daylight,they targeted cell phones,laptops,wallets watches, jewelry.

These immigrants that we're talking about are the complete opposite to the people who live in Europe,they want to live their way of life and do not respect anyone or anything.I am not against it to help people in need,but in this way Europe's only harmed itself currently and much more for the future.

I agree with you that there is a migrant problem and that for some part most of them don't seem to uphold the same values as we do in Europe.
But what you said about criminal gangs who'd steal valuable goods, most of those are actually from Eastern Europe I'd say, even from countries that are members of the EU.

So I think it's wrong to point the finger only to North African, Middle Eastern migrants.

[OROBTC]

...

Thank you above repliers re posting that Russian and E. European gangs are infesting your countries.  I had not heard that per se, but it makes a lot of sense.

* * *

I had an interesting conversation yesterday with a realtor here in town (warm SE USA!).

He (he and his wife are from Spain and maintain connections to their friends & families there) told me that European countries will definitely raise taxes (esp. on the "rich"), as they WILL NOT cut spending (no votes in cutting spending).

And they will do things like introduce NEW taxes, apparently real estate is not heavily taxed (it is kind of heavily taxed here, it varies by state, but 1% - 2% of real estate value goes to "Property Tax").

Europe already has high Income Tax as well as a VAT that is typically 17% - 21%.


He was NOT optimistic re Europe and their future, at least among the wealthy that he has recently dealt with.

[IIOII]

* * *

I particularly invite Europeans to comment!  We (I) need perspectives from bitcointalk members as to what you think is happening there!  Here is a list of various subjects all pertaining to Europe now, but I encourage comments on anything that forum members have.

--  Migrants from Muslim countries (appears to us Americans as a huge problem)

About half the population (at increasing numbers) in Germany sees this as a significant problem, while the other half opposes this view. The government and media are supporting the latter half. They are even in the process of suppressing public dissent in social networks.

--  Continuing problems in the banking system (both "Club Med", but also even mighty Deutsche Bank)

Without doubt this is a problem. After imminent penalty payments, Deutsche Bank was presumably on the verge of collapse not long ago. Among others, Italian banks are also in very bad shape.

--  Do Europeans living close to Russia view that country as a threat?

In Germany, most people do not view Russia as a threat. But the government is taking a more pro-US stance and therefore endorses sanctions against Russia, which is against German interests from my point of view. Instead, inviting Russia to participate in the European market would be the right approach. Because of history, Eastern European countries (Poland,...) view Russia as a threat indeed.

--  How likely would you see a break-up of the Eurozone or the Euro currency?

In the long term: Very likely. There's increasing resistance against the EU and its legislation all across Europe.

[coolcoinz]

...

Thank you above repliers re posting that Russian and E. European gangs are infesting your countries.  I had not heard that per se, but it makes a lot of sense.

* * *

I had an interesting conversation yesterday with a realtor here in town (warm SE USA!).

He (he and his wife are from Spain and maintain connections to their friends & families there) told me that European countries will definitely raise taxes (esp. on the "rich"), as they WILL NOT cut spending (no votes in cutting spending).

And they will do things like introduce NEW taxes, apparently real estate is not heavily taxed (it is kind of heavily taxed here, it varies by state, but 1% - 2% of real estate value goes to "Property Tax").

Europe already has high Income Tax as well as a VAT that is typically 17% - 21%.


He was NOT optimistic re Europe and their future, at least among the wealthy that he has recently dealt with.

I've been all around Europe and never seen a Russian gang What I saw were asian smugglers peddling cheap smokes in Berlin.
The properties in migrant infested countries will go down in price for sure. I heard Germans are already buying houses in Eastern Europe to have a bug out location just in case. In countries like Slovenia you can buy a beautiful property with a 100 square meter house for the price of a single room Berlin.
 

[davis196]

...

Europe is the world's largest economic zone with a little larger GNP than the USA.  Yet we have all heard of the severe economic (and cultural because of migrants) problems.

I am an American but very much a "Friend of Europe".  In the parts that our family has visited, we feel pretty comfortable, as European values are pretty similar to American ones.  The food is good, the infrastructure probably better than the USA's.

Here in this thread, I invite discussion and comments on where Europe is heading.

Martin Armstrong (an economic forecaster who has a fan base and a huge supercomputer grinding out economic analysis) just wrote the below short piece on the prospects for Europe breaking up:

https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/international-news/europes-current-economy/europe-starting-to-break-apart/

* * *

I particularly invite Europeans to comment!  We (I) need perspectives from bitcointalk members as to what you think is happening there!  Here is a list of various subjects all pertaining to Europe now, but I encourage comments on anything that forum members have.

--  Migrants from Muslim countries (appears to us Americans as a huge problem)
--  Continuing problems in the banking system (both "Club Med", but also even mighty Deutsche Bank)
--  Do Europeans living close to Russia view that country as a threat?
--  How likely would you see a break-up of the Eurozone or the Euro currency?

Muslim migrants are not a problem,terrorism is a problem.

Italy will be the biggest problem of the eurozone for sure.

No,I don`t view Russia as a threat.

What do you mean by "whither Europe"?

[Lucius]

...

What about matters that affect tourists like street crime?

Yes, I know that street crime is not necessarily an important issue in Europe (it is a pretty important issue here), but I have heard stories about immigrant gangs attacking people in the streets.  If that is a BIG DEAL that would affect tourism, which I imagine (?) would affect ALL the rest of a country's economy.

* * *

Also re immigrants, we read here that they are NOT "fitting in", America used to be famous in that all immigrants "became Americans".  This is changing somewhat due to OUR own illegal immigrants NOT wanting to fit in.

Street crime is on the rise,especially in Germany which has received over one million immigrants and they say that around 100 000 of them will be turn to a some kind of crime.Also they estimated that some 40 000 imigrants has something to do with terrorism and that represent a potential security risk.

What you read about immigrant gangs is true,I also heard from some friends who work in Germany that there was a lot of that type of attack in broad daylight,they targeted cell phones,laptops,wallets watches, jewelry.

These immigrants that we're talking about are the complete opposite to the people who live in Europe,they want to live their way of life and do not respect anyone or anything.I am not against it to help people in need,but in this way Europe's only harmed itself currently and much more for the future.

I can't agree to that. The real crime problem Germany faces started many years ago.
There are organized gangs from the poor east of Europe, or Russia.
Traveling across Germany, commiting one buglary after the othere and then returning home.
They are hard to catch because they move fast, more and more are coming every year because back home they turn out to be wealthy and that inspires others.
Of course immigrants commit crimes, but those organized gangs are fare worse.

Crime did not appear with immigrants for sure,but with their arrival is certainly increased.I know for organized gangs from east,they operate for decades.As I wrote before Germans estimated that around 100 000 imigrants will turn to crime, but if they do not mind to pay the price...

Regarding fear of Russia there is some news in last few days how Sweden respond to possible threats from the east.Sweden Prime Minister Stefan Löfven says :

"Russian aggression and the destabilisation of Ukraine pose the most serious challenge to the European security order since the end of the Cold War.Russia’s illegal annexation of Crimea is a violation of international law. Borders must not be changed by force. Our support to Ukraine, both political and economic, will continue. A modern total defence is being developed to respond to the challenges presented by the changing security policy situation.

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/europe/sweden-is-preparing-for-a-possible-war-a7476316.html

[Sithara007]

Street crime is on the rise,especially in Germany which has received over one million immigrants and they say that around 100 000 of them will be turn to a some kind of crime.Also they estimated that some 40 000 imigrants has something to do with terrorism and that represent a potential security risk.

Do you really think that these refugees are going to limit their numbers to one million? With Erdogan now threatening to unleash millions of them on Europe, you can soon expect you cities and villages to get swamped by these Afghans and Pakistanis.