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Author Topic: Even if it does crash... (is that possible?)  (Read 776 times)
Insarov
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April 09, 2013, 08:14:03 PM
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If bitcoins crash to say 20USD, will speculators lose faith and abandon it?  Or would they just buy up as much as they can, correcting the market, and reinitiating the volatile trend towards whatever value the market might peak (and potentially stabilize) at?

It seems that most of the market relies on a sense of trust.  A trust that bitcoin will establish itself as a new currency--and if it does, a "crash" isn't even the right word, let alone a feasible scenario.  It'd really just depend on the rate of integration.  As long as we, as a society are willing to allow btc and fiat to coincide, it's just a matter of innovation

...but this all sounds a bit too revolutionary to me?  Like it's impossible for this to fail.  Think of how the internet's developed thus far:  a means of archiving (google), social networking (facebook), media/entertainment (youtube, hulu, netflix), transaction methods (paypal), marketplaces (amazon, ebay, newegg) and eventually a currency integrated directly? (btc).  In the development of the internet, there's a pattern of needs that arise and means that fulfill those niches, all of which have become absurdly successful. 

How are you interpreting this?  I'm having a rough time trying to fit this all within the right perspective.
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April 09, 2013, 08:17:18 PM
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Bitcoin has not made any "revolutionary" advancements (fundamentally) in the past few months, just a lot of people flooding in with money in hopes of selling at a profit. If it crashes, the profit takers will re-buy (maybe), and the losers will bad mouth the whole concept for the rest of their lives. So if it did "crash" I don't see it rebounding due to the sheer amount of people that will be screwed financially.
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April 09, 2013, 08:18:42 PM
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Bitcoin has not made any "revolutionary" advancements (fundamentally) in the past few months, just a lot of people flooding in with money in hopes of selling at a profit. If it crashes, the profit takers will re-buy (maybe), and the losers will bad mouth the whole concept for the rest of their lives. So if it did "crash" I don't see it rebounding due to the sheer amount of people that will be screwed financially.
Yeah, like just like after June 2011!  Grin Tongue
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April 09, 2013, 08:21:20 PM
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If bitcoins crash to say 20USD, will speculators lose faith and abandon it?  Or would they just buy up as much as they can, correcting the market, and reinitiating the volatile trend towards whatever value the market might peak (and potentially stabilize) at?

It seems that most of the market relies on a sense of trust.  A trust that bitcoin will establish itself as a new currency--and if it does, a "crash" isn't even the right word, let alone a feasible scenario.  It'd really just depend on the rate of integration.  As long as we, as a society are willing to allow btc and fiat to coincide, it's just a matter of innovation

...but this all sounds a bit too revolutionary to me?  Like it's impossible for this to fail.  Think of how the internet's developed thus far:  a means of archiving (google), social networking (facebook), media/entertainment (youtube, hulu, netflix), transaction methods (paypal), marketplaces (amazon, ebay, newegg) and eventually a currency integrated directly? (btc).  In the development of the internet, there's a pattern of needs that arise and means that fulfill those niches, all of which have become absurdly successful. 

How are you interpreting this?  I'm having a rough time trying to fit this all within the right perspective.

A crash happened before in 2011, I don't see Bitcoin simply disappearing after a crash. It will be around for a very very long time.

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wopwop
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April 09, 2013, 08:21:31 PM
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as a day trader on the forex i know that from experience it is unusual that a popular investment vehicle such as bitcoin drops after its initial ipo rise
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April 09, 2013, 08:22:44 PM
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IMHO bitcoin is a really great idea but it will have to fight some really big enemies before it becomes established.
The biggest of those enemies are central banks and governments that will not be able to operate like they did before, if at all!

Still, the idea of bitcoin will not be lost. It is the future as much as email has been up to now.
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April 09, 2013, 08:23:34 PM
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If it followed 2011 proportionately, it might be OK after a 3 or 4 year recovery of confidence; if it crashed to $1, $10, $20, that's not a crash, it's damn near apocalyptic.
Ozymandias
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April 09, 2013, 08:25:41 PM
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If it followed 2011 proportionately, it might be OK after a 3 or 4 year recovery of confidence; if it crashed to $1, $10, $20, that's not a crash, it's damn near apocalyptic.

If it crashes to what it was 2-3 months ago it will be apocalyptic? Really?

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April 09, 2013, 08:28:52 PM
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If a crash like that happens, without any of the core fundamentals (protocol flaw, heavy legal ban etc) being the cause, I would buy Bitcoins for all the money I could gather up.

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April 09, 2013, 08:32:45 PM
 #10

Even if it crashes to 20 I wouldn't sell. And I bought in around 100.

The general consensus of the newcomers around here is that they are greedy and ignorant, looking to make a quick buck.

I'm investing as a FU to central bankers who have been responsible for so much death and immorality the past 100 years that its mind boggling. I believe in what BTC stands for, and I believe it will ultimately succeed. Freedom is popular.
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April 09, 2013, 08:33:42 PM
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If it followed 2011 proportionately, it might be OK after a 3 or 4 year recovery of confidence; if it crashed to $1, $10, $20, that's not a crash, it's damn near apocalyptic.

If it crashes to what it was 2-3 months ago it will be apocalyptic? Really?
Considering the amount of people who will lose their shirt, plus the fact that all eyes in the media are focused on BTC at the moment, yes. I do believe it would almost be a fatal blow to the notion of a decentralized unregulated cryptocurrency. It would take a very long time and a lot of positive PR and developments to overcome something like that.
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April 09, 2013, 08:34:29 PM
 #12

Bitcoin has not made any "revolutionary" advancements (fundamentally) in the past few months, just a lot of people flooding in with money in hopes of selling at a profit. If it crashes, the profit takers will re-buy (maybe), and the losers will bad mouth the whole concept for the rest of their lives. So if it did "crash" I don't see it rebounding due to the sheer amount of people that will be screwed financially.

I agree with that. With the amount of money that currently gets pumped into BTC, when the bubble pops there will be so many people that got burned with BTC that it will have many enemies after that.

Lets hope it doesn't come to that and we somehow get the miracle of a smooth correction and a healthy economy after that.

I for once see this current craziness as really dangerous for BTC.

But I have been wrong before.

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Wuji
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April 09, 2013, 08:34:56 PM
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as a day trader on the forex i know that from experience it is unusual that a popular investment vehicle such as bitcoin drops after its initial ipo rise

As someone who started out day trading in 1998 I'm curious what the P/E ratio is on this Bitcoin IPO you speak of?
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