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美联储加息,比特币市场短期加压
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Topic: 美联储加息,比特币市场短期加压 (Read 159 times)
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美联储加息,比特币市场短期加压
December 16, 2016, 11:01:04 AM
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2016年12月15日凌晨,美联储宣布加息25个基点。这是在2015年12月上调美国联邦目标基金利率25个基点至0.25%-0.5%之后,又一次加息,目前联邦基金利率为0.5%~0.75%个基点,美联储公开市场委员会预计明年还将加息3次,市场预计加息2次。
美联储加息,意味着美国市场美元资金供应将减少,预期利率和资金回收率也将上升,一部分跨境流动的资金将流回美国。加之特朗普在美国大选中获胜之后,计划开展美版“4万亿”的救市计划,未来将向美国基础设施领域投放5500亿美金以刺激美国经济的发展。特朗普上台之后尖锐言辞转向温和,让市场对特朗普的避险情绪出现降温。
这对于同样具有避险属性的日元、黄金、白银、比特币以及期货商品价格而言,短期内将会因美储加息的影响下行。事实上,由于美储加息已经被严重的“剧透”,加息被认为势在必行,市场已经对利空比特币和贵金属的影响进行了一定程度上的消化。
11月FOMC会议纪要公布后,预期12月加息概率为100%。随之而来的是黄金ETF持仓持续下滑,资产规模在11月份从85.5吨缩减到1902吨,是今年6月份以来的最低水平。黄金ETF持仓在12月份有望创下2013年6月份以来的最大月度降幅。
从历史数据来看,去年12月,美联储宣布上调25个基点,是2006年6月之后首次宣布提高联邦基金利率。比特币在美联储加息利好美元之后,也经历了短期下跌。据OKCoin币行的数据显示,2015年底美联储加息之后,比特币下行,在2016年2月触底2335元。
网易贵金属金牌分析师周玉鹏认为,由于国际货币市场动荡不断,从英国脱欧到意大利修宪公投,加之各国货币超发严重,贵金属市场作为避险港湾从长线看涨。2015-2016年以来,比特币市场的历史数据也印证了强避险属性的货币走势。据OK Coin的数据显示,2016年比特币经过了一轮“牛市”,今年12月达到最高值5555元全年上涨幅度达到138%。
区块链的春天?
今年6月,英国脱欧极大地刺激了比特币价格的飙升。在英国脱欧和美国大选出现意外等黑天鹅不断出现,国际金融市场不确定性增加的情况下,市场避险情绪持续增强。
比特币挖矿过程所需算力巨大,非常消耗电力和硬件,对比特币进行挖矿供应较为稳定,加上目前比特币系统已经遍布全球,区块链的稳定性与去中心化,也让比特币也被认为是具有强避险属性的数字货币。比特币的价格还受到市场对数字货币流行性的判断,在看好资产数字化趋势与全球货币去中心化的情况下,受到国际金融动荡的驱赶,区块链被认为将对未来金融行业进行重塑。
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