How many GPU put into mining to let btc avalon buyers losing the game?

[caoxg]

Purchased avalon #1 using btc ,means used about 100 btc each .
An avalon  get 4.2 btc / day.  That means ,if the difficult don't change, I need 20 day (or 25 days?) to get invest back.

So there is very big chance to meet ROI target.

But #2 and #3 are not so lucky. The crazy increase of btc price ,means crazy number of GPU come to the game, and the difficult increase is much higher than I calculate only how much new ASIC come before.

So, at the end of April,a single avalon will only get 2.4 btc back per day.
That means the 2nd batch will need a much more time to get money back.

In my origional calculation, I thought it will be 60 days.

But if the crazy continue, Maybe GPU will add another 20T in every month, and I will never get my invest back.

Today i see 73T of network hashrate. I expect it be 50T,cause i remember it was 30T in Feb. So , 20T is from GPU.

How many GPU income could make btc batch #3 buyers non-profitable?

[myrond]

Purchased avalon #1 using btc ,means I sold about 80 btc each unit to avalon at 16usd.

I got avalon batch 1 at April 5th. And since the btc price is climing, more and more people join the mining game, and I can only get 4.2 btc / day.  That means ,if the difficult doesn't change, I need 20 day to get invest back.

So there is very big chance to meet ROI target.

But #2 and #3 are not so lucky. The crazy increase of btc price ,means crazy number of GPU come to the game, and the difficult increase is much higher than I calculate only how much new ASIC come before.

So, at the end of April,a single avalon will only get 2.4 btc back per day.
That means the 2nd batch will need a much more time to get money back.

In my origional calculation, I thought it will be 60 days. But if the crazy continue, Maybe GPU will add another 50T in 1month, and I will never get my invest back.

I spent more on BTC for a avalon #1 on a earlier round than you;  at least you GOT your avalon!  According to DHL mine still has not even shipped yet

Update: 4/12/2013 avalon arrived

[kdf]

Your ROI is all wrong.  You are wanting to get BTC for BTC.  You said that right now you get 4.2BTC/day and it would take you 20 days to get that back.  Your looking to get back 80BTC that equates to at todays rate of $230/btc or $18,400 when you paid 80BTC at $16 you paid $1,280.

BTC is worth what it will buy and a 1 BTC today will buy a lot more than 1 BTC from 6 months ago.  So you can't use BTC for BTC as your ROI.  If the price of BTC stayed relatively the same then you could.  So you have to use something else to determine your ROI say USD which does not fluctuate as much.

If you not happy with that ROI I would be more than happy to take the unit off your hands

[Minor Miner]

Your ROI is all wrong.  You are wanting to get BTC for BTC.  You said that right now you get 4.2BTC/day and it would take you 20 days to get that back.  Your looking to get back 80BTC that equates to at todays rate of $230/btc or $18,400 when you paid 80BTC at $16 you paid $1,280.

BTC is worth what it will buy and a 1 BTC today will buy a lot more than 1 BTC from 6 months ago.  So you can't use BTC for BTC as your ROI.  If the price of BTC stayed relatively the same then you could.  So you have to use something else to determine your ROI say USD which does not fluctuate as much.

If you not happy with that ROI I would be more than happy to take the unit off your hands

Can any explain to me why we will not see a strong correlation between difficulty and exchange price to USD/EU etc.?   

[caoxg]

Your ROI is all wrong.  You are wanting to get BTC for BTC. 

 My point is, I bought avalon using btc. Avalon team DID have an option to pay by USD.
If you paid USD, you calculate ROI by USD.

[Miner99er]

I need 20 day to get invest back.

...and THAT'S where I stopped reading.

[Minor Miner]

I need 20 day to get invest back.

...and THAT'S where I stopped reading.

lol.  yes that is what made me cry too and think we need to send him a tip....

[Rodyland]

I need 20 day to get invest back.

...and THAT'S where I stopped reading.

lol.  yes that is what made me cry too and think we need to send him a tip....

This.  OP, please post an address so that those of us who didn't bother with batch 1 avalons and missed out on batch 2 avalons and could only afford a group-buy of a batch 3 avalon can send you some spare change.

[Wayne_Chang]

I will always say: Even today Avalon become a box of silicon and worth nothing. I will never regret for buying it. Investment always has risk.

[Minor Miner]

I will always say: Even today Avalon become a box of silicon and worth nothing. I will never regret for buying it. Investment always has risk.

it is not just an investment.  you are actually getting paid to do something that many of us would do for free and are willing to continue to do for breakeven on the power because it NEEDS to be done in order for this to work

[||bit]

Purchased avalon #1 using btc ,means I sold about 80 btc each unit to avalon at 16usd.

I got avalon batch 1 at April 5th. And since the btc price is climing, more and more people join the mining game, and I can only get 4.2 btc / day.  That means ,if the difficult doesn't change, I need 20 day to get invest back.

So there is very big chance to meet ROI target.

But #2 and #3 are not so lucky. The crazy increase of btc price ,means crazy number of GPU come to the game, and the difficult increase is much higher than I calculate only how much new ASIC come before.

So, at the end of April,a single avalon will only get 2.4 btc back per day.
That means the 2nd batch will need a much more time to get money back.

In my origional calculation, I thought it will be 60 days. But if the crazy continue, Maybe GPU will add another 50T in every month, and I will never get my invest back.

At least you have a product.  You could have chose bASIC and lost 75% of your BTC when Tom finally refunded you at higher $/btc rates. Or you could have chose BFL who has no product to ship and is still unclear on what they are doing - just pretend BFL doesn't exist. It will be a miracle when/if they ever ship. And I can't imagine there being 50TH of GPU's. Who would buy more GPU's with ASIC coming online?

Even so, an ROI of less than a year would be better than most business models.

[||bit]

I need 20 day to get invest back.

...and THAT'S where I stopped reading.

LOL! A symptom of the now generation.

[SolarSilver]

Your ROI is all wrong.  You are wanting to get BTC for BTC.  You said that right now you get 4.2BTC/day and it would take you 20 days to get that back.  Your looking to get back 80BTC that equates to at todays rate of $230/btc or $18,400 when you paid 80BTC at $16 you paid $1,280.

BTC is worth what it will buy and a 1 BTC today will buy a lot more than 1 BTC from 6 months ago.  So you can't use BTC for BTC as your ROI.  If the price of BTC stayed relatively the same then you could.  So you have to use something else to determine your ROI say USD which does not fluctuate as much.

His calculation is all  right. Stop thinking in USD or EUR, he invested BTC and he is getting back BTC. Same with those that invested BTC in ASICminer, they are getting paid weekly in BTC.

Those who invested BTC 110 in September to buy a Batch #1 Avalon could have had less risk by just have hording the BTC (no risk of no-delivery if Avalon failed like bASIC did, or end up with a late inferior product like BFL is trying to pull off)

The whole point of stimulating the BTC economy is to offer people the option of investing their BTC into something that pays them back in the long run (a few months) their BTC and in the mean time contribute to the growth of the network (by adding security or new features/products/sites that brings in more users)

What else could you do with BTC? Just hord it? Speculate and sell it on an exchange for FRN? You earn BTC by offering something of value and you spend those BTC on other things people offer.

[Wayne_Chang]

Why we have to compare the investment by BTC?
Think about if you invest gold or silver, how you judge win or lose?
Compare with GPU's power consumption, I don't know to judge Avalon buyers win or lose?
Therefore, I think the topic is totally wrong. When I saw this "I need 20 day to get invest back.". I have a feeling which in Chinese is "得了便宜还卖乖！" I don't know how to translate to English.

[SolarSilver]

Why we have to compare the investment by BTC?
Think about if you invest gold or silver, how you judge win or lose?

I bought gold and silver with the intention of one day spending it as gold or silver coins for goods, not for the intention to trade them for FRN. But yes, you have a point there. Ideally I would like to invest some of my silver coins into something that pays me more silver coins in the end instead of hoarding them.

Compare with GPU's power consumption, I don't know to judge Avalon buyers win or lose?

One Avalon (3 modules) is costing you 600 Watts thus 14.4 kWh / day. Say at EUR 0.22 / kWh, it's EUR 3 / day
Every day the Avalon (at current difficulty) is generating about BTC 4.

You need to sell each day BTC 0.02 to cover your costs. The rest pays of your investment until you break even

GPU systems consume far more Watt / GH/s

Therefore, I think the topic is totally wrong. When I saw this "I need 20 day to get invest back.". I have a feeling which in Chinese is "得了便宜还卖乖！" I don't know how to translate to English.

I think 20 days is optimistic 60 days is more realistic with increasing difficulty. Maybe 90 days for batch #3

[caoxg]

"得了便宜还卖乖！"

Hey bro, for batch #1, sure there will be good return.
I'm thinking of  batch #3 case.

And also, I never regret any invest in Avalon. Just try to simulate the situation of GPU incoming.

 If I paid in USD but not in BTC, it will be a much better ROI result.


"没占谁的便宜啊，我都是真金白银花下去买的avalon啊亲。"  <-- I pay real BTC to buy Avalon, and I 'm curious about the real ROI. let's find out 2 months later

[Wayne_Chang]

"得了便宜还卖乖！"

Hey bro, for batch #1, sure there will be good return.
I'm thinking of  batch #3 case.

And also, I never regret any invest in Avalon. Just try to simulate the situation of GPU incoming.

 If I paid in USD but not in BTC, it will be a much better ROI result.


"没占谁的便宜啊，我都是真金白银花下去买的avalon啊亲。"  <-- I pay real BTC to buy Avalon, and I 'm curious about the real ROI. let's find out 2 months later

谁不是呢？我只是想说是投资总有风险，标题太夸张了！更何况对比GPU，Avalon还有功耗优势。挖矿的难度提升对GPU和ASIC是等同的。
<-- Who of the Avalon investors is not the same situation as you? I just want to say you have to take risk for any investment, the topic is too tough! After all, compare with GPU, Avalon is better on power consumption. The difficulty increase of mining is same to GPU and ASIC miner.

[caoxg]

同学啊我说的不是显卡和Asic的比较。我说的是，花BTC，赚BTC的效率。显卡不是这样的。我当然不是害怕风险，害怕风险咱就都不玩了对吧？ 我现实工作比这个风险还要大很多呢。

translations:

You didn't get the point.

If you buy GPU, you buy in USD or RMB , not in BTC.

So, in title I ask "let btc avalon buyers losing the game" not "USD or RMB buyers".

Sure ASIC is very effective comparing to GPU. But BTC exchange rate is jumping as a rocket.

Just relax and imagine : if the difficult double every 2 weeks, so, one may never get back the btc he spend upon batch #3 Avalon.

[Wayne_Chang]

同学啊我说的不是显卡和Asic的比较。我说的是，花BTC，赚BTC的效率。显卡不是这样的。我当然不是害怕风险，害怕风险咱就都不玩了对吧？ 我现实工作比这个风险还要大很多呢。

translations:

You didn't get the point.

If you buy GPU, you buy in USD or RMB , not in BTC.

So, in title I ask "let btc avalon buyers losing the game" not "USD or RMB buyers".

Sure ASIC is very effective comparing to GPU. But BTC exchange rate is jumping as a rocket.

Just relax and imagine : if the difficult double every 2 weeks, so, one may never get back the btc he spend upon batch #3 Avalon.

I know your meaning. But as there is BTC exchange website serveral years ago, how could you say GPU player is not the same situation? For example, I bought a computer worth about 1000 USD last year by sold out some of my BTC. Same as avalon buyer, also for me, I bought some BTC use RMB when I order Avalon.
So, nothing is definitely right or wrong, win or lose. As Chinese said, 塞翁失马，焉知非福. 

[caoxg]

Same as avalon buyer, also for me, I bought some BTC use RMB when I order Avalon.
So, nothing is definitely right or wrong, win or lose. As Chinese said, 塞翁失马，焉知非福.  

How lucky you are !

#恩算了还是不庸人自扰了不然就该自挂东南枝去了.  <-- this is a common joke and I should look forward and stop worrying.