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Author Topic: The previous bubble  (Read 1148 times)
Elwar
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April 10, 2013, 03:00:53 AM
 #1

For the previous bubble the price skyrocketted from around $20 to $32 then ALL the way back down to $17.

So basically, those saying that the Bitcoin bubble is going to pop are saying that it will almost double, then go back down to less than half.

That would be like the price falling all the way to what it was a few days ago.

Scary stuff.

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April 10, 2013, 03:08:16 AM
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Why do you disregard comparisons to the first bubble when it's inconvenient to your argument, but do the opposite when it's convenient? Just wondering.
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April 10, 2013, 03:13:07 AM
 #3

last time the bubble poped we later went much high then that bubble..... hmmmm




POP THE BUBBLE!!!!!!!!!!!

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April 10, 2013, 03:22:14 AM
 #4

last time the bubble poped we later went much high then that bubble..... hmmmm




POP THE BUBBLE!!!!!!!!!!!

Most people are impatient. Having to wait over a year for it to maybe bounce back sucks. However if you're in it for the long haul it doesn't matter. Just means every couple of years you get to buy cheap coins again.

Elwar
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April 10, 2013, 03:29:03 AM
 #5

Why do you disregard comparisons to the first bubble when it's inconvenient to your argument

Such as?

Btw. I have a lot of people on ignore.

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April 10, 2013, 03:33:11 AM
 #6

For the previous bubble the price skyrocketted from around $20 to $32 then ALL the way back down to $17.

It went all the way back to just over $2.  You're looking at a selectively small time period if you're saying the bubble burst and it fell to just $17.


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April 10, 2013, 03:38:12 AM
 #7

Such as?

Btw. I have a lot of people on ignore.
Hm must be thinking of someone else. Looked through some of your post history and closest I've seen to not comparing to previous bubble is insinuation this isn't a bubble.

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=169773.msg1765979#msg1765979
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=167740.msg1759299#msg1759299

But either way, sorry I appear to have gotten the wrong person.
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April 10, 2013, 03:39:54 AM
 #8

For the previous bubble the price skyrocketted from around $20 to $32 then ALL the way back down to $17.

It went all the way back to just over $2.  You're looking at a selectively small time period if you're saying the bubble burst and it fell to just $17.

the fall from 15$ to 2$ was because of hacks and such totally killing confidence, i'm not sure what event could possibly shake confidence at this point...

Elwar
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April 10, 2013, 03:50:44 AM
 #9

Such as?

Btw. I have a lot of people on ignore.
Hm must be thinking of someone else. Looked through some of your post history and closest I've seen to not comparing to previous bubble is insinuation this isn't a bubble.


This is not a bubble.

But even if it were. We would only lose a couple of days from the price.

I believe the bubble talk is in a bubble though. The amount of times the word bubble is mentioned cannot be maintained.

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XXthetimeisnowXX
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April 10, 2013, 03:56:11 AM
 #10

For the previous bubble the price skyrocketted from around $20 to $32 then ALL the way back down to $17.

It went all the way back to just over $2.  You're looking at a selectively small time period if you're saying the bubble burst and it fell to just $17.

the fall from 15$ to 2$ was because of hacks and such totally killing confidence, i'm not sure what event could possibly shake confidence at this point...

quite a bit actually but i like to stay bullish and focus on the positive like a hundred dollar increase in a week Grin Grin Grin
adamstgBit
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April 10, 2013, 04:04:28 AM
 #11

For the previous bubble the price skyrocketted from around $20 to $32 then ALL the way back down to $17.

It went all the way back to just over $2.  You're looking at a selectively small time period if you're saying the bubble burst and it fell to just $17.

the fall from 15$ to 2$ was because of hacks and such totally killing confidence, i'm not sure what event could possibly shake confidence at this point...

quite a bit actually but i like to stay bullish and focus on the positive like a hundred dollar increase in a week Grin Grin Grin

idk about you, but for me even if the protocol is broken somehow, that still won't shake my confidence in bitcoin. because i know, we can go back a version patch it, process all the TX's that have built up while the fix was implemented, and then we keep moving along.

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April 10, 2013, 04:07:23 AM
 #12

It went all the way back to just over $2.  You're looking at a selectively small time period if you're saying the bubble burst and it fell to just $17.

This.
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April 10, 2013, 06:10:29 AM
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idk about you, but for me even if the protocol is broken somehow, that still won't shake my confidence in bitcoin. because i know, we can go back a version patch it, process all the TX's that have built up while the fix was implemented, and then we keep moving along.

Imagine corrupt blockchain for example. Money lost, new transactions validated on top of broken transactions, etc. Would be pretty messy. Also, I still consider Gox failing or being regulated soon a possibility, that would also move the price substantially.

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April 10, 2013, 06:13:17 AM
 #14

There was basically no sticky investment in bitcoin at that crash, 0 silicon valley presence, and a massive string of scams/hackings

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April 10, 2013, 06:54:47 AM
 #15

It went all the way back to just over $2.  You're looking at a selectively small time period if you're saying the bubble burst and it fell to just $17.

This.


No, not that. The bubble popped from $32 to $17. It was ADDITIONAL EVENTS that further drove it to $2. Hacks, scams, etc... It felt like every bitcoin business was run by 16 yr olds who either turned out to be incompetent, scammers, or both. Granted, we still have a nascent ecosystem by the standards of a mature industry, but the situation is like night and day versus the latter half of 2011. Far more players, VC investment, a general higher level of professionalism, mainstream press that usually isn't crazy biased....etc.


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April 10, 2013, 06:57:54 AM
 #16

Multiple events (including those you mention) caused the bubble to pop. The bubble was done popping when the price no longer went down (at around $2).
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April 10, 2013, 07:57:56 AM
 #17

Multiple events (including those you mention) caused the bubble to pop. The bubble was done popping when the price no longer went down (at around $2).


Well, I assume when people shout "bubble", they're mostly referring to the parabolic price rise, and are arguing that the price cannot rise that fast without falling fast at some point strictly because of the excessive price action.

That may very well be true. So, then comparing to the 2011 bubble pop that was due to price action, the drop was from $32 to $17. The Gox hack happened when the price was at $17, and then the steady stream of further unfortunate events for months.

So, as someone who thinks the bitcoin success case requires a price an order of magnitude higher than current levels, I fully acknowledge that we'll likely get a 50%+ instacrash along the way at some point due strictly to price dynamic. But I don't think it'll follow to play out like the latter half 2011 unless there's a similar string of really negative events for months.

Bitcoin is the first monetary system to credibly offer perfect information to all economic participants.
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April 10, 2013, 09:28:26 AM
 #18

For the previous bubble the price skyrocketted from around $20 to $32 then ALL the way back down to $17.

It went all the way back to just over $2.  You're looking at a selectively small time period if you're saying the bubble burst and it fell to just $17.

the fall from 15$ to 2$ was because of hacks and such totally killing confidence, i'm not sure what event could possibly shake confidence at this point...

The biggest problem for this price bubble is that the price is only determined by a few amateur-like exchanges. Right now it rises steadily, so people log in occasionally. What if suddenly there is a big price drop ? Then everyone will want to log in and frantically place orders, making the sites crash and unreachable. And it'll feel terrible when the price goes into a free fall while you can't log in to sell.  Not to mention the constant DDOS-ing by shady parties trying to manipulate the price.
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