[2016-12-18] FX Markets Shrink While Bitcoin Expands

[Jgilpulg]

Daily foreign exchange market volumes have shrunk for the first time in 15 years, according to the Bank for International Settlements (BIS). Banks are increasingly becoming worried as the BIS, which is owned by central banks, warns them of impending financial stability risks. On the other hand, the bitcoin price continues to rise, reaching its highest level in the last three years.

https://news.bitcoin.com/fx-market-shrinks-bitcoin-expands/

[TraderTimm]

I know we all love to subscribe to the "Bitcoin conquers all" narrative, but in this case I'd say its more tenuous then most.

The more likely explanation is that High Frequency Trading has declined in Forex, as retail trading in general has seen a downward trajectory across equities and other products. When you see Hedge funds closing down due to customer redemptions, it means the industry itself is in a consolidating mode because actual yields are hard to achieve. This is also why state pension funds are in a bind, because instead of the estimated 7% return, they've barely eked out 1%.

There's a lot more going on in the financial world that would account for this difference, is what I'm saying.

[panju1]

Daily foreign exchange market volumes have shrunk for the first time in 15 years, according to the Bank for International Settlements (BIS). Banks are increasingly becoming worried as the BIS, which is owned by central banks, warns them of impending financial stability risks. On the other hand, the bitcoin price continues to rise, reaching its highest level in the last three years.

https://news.bitcoin.com/fx-market-shrinks-bitcoin-expands/

According to the BIS
Global FX turnover fell to $5.1 trillion per day in April 2016, from $5.4 trillion in April 2013

The scale of global FX turnover indicates that Bitcoin is microscopic compared to FX trades. The volume of Bitcoin traded at global exchanges is ~ $60-70 Mn (excluding inflated Chinese trade volumes). So we have to increase by around 100,000 times before we get close to FX trades. Given how small Bitcoin currently is, it would be ridiculous to link Bitcoin and the drop in global FX trade.