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Author Topic: Trading robots - wrong assumptions made by beginners.  (Read 2903 times)
carap (OP)
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December 20, 2016, 03:45:12 PM
Last edit: May 18, 2017, 06:59:26 AM by carap
 #1

I decided to start that thread when I read the one called "Do you use a bot for trading?" (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=1638032)
I realized that many traders don't understand the whole concept of trading robots. Some people simply don't believe in trading-bots and keep away from (not a bad idea actually), some are striving to find a moneymaking program that guarantees the steady income (very wrong start), and there are also traders who successfully use some bots to automate routine operations (I'm one of them).

Wrong assumptions to be aware of:
1.   There are no perfect robots, moneymakers that can guarantee the steady income with no respect to current market conditions. It just can’t be like that. Robots can make forecasts and perform superficial analysis with several criteria; however none of them can predict price changes (on the developed markets). The prices are constantly changing and there’s no such algorithm that is able to take all the factors into account and create a precise pattern of behavior. Thus, all the offers of smart robots with complex AI that can predict prices with more then 60% accuracy are nothing but a marketing trick. There are robots with optimized strategies, which were tested and well-proven on the past data; however, there’s no guarantee that such bots will be successful in the nearest future.

2.   The whole concept of artificial intelligence is terribly misunderstood. Beginners consider trading robots as incredibly complex software solutions, which are capable to perform thorough fundamental analysis of the market conditions and correctly predict the price more often than a group of live traders. Wrong. Some robots can work in accordance with incredibly complex strategies, analyse huge amounts of data, may imitate the learning process; however, there is no guarantee that forecasting will be profitable. There’s no sense in making an artificial intelligence that will copy behavior of a real trader. Simply because live traders are not perfect in what they are doing. There’s an amazing book of Nassim Nicholas Taleb about luck, uncertainty and probability. It’s called “Fooled by Randomness: The Hidden Role of Chance in Life and in the Markets”.

3.   Some traders believe that trading bots are too complex, trading strategies are difficult to understand, plus they require constant control from the trader. It’s not really like that in the majority of situations. Trading robots help to automate routine operations, such as price monitoring or order placement. If trader follows some working strategy, the latter can be automated and reduce the number of routine operations and possible human-factor mistakes. However, if trader has no strategy, it is strongly advised not to use any bots! The sure way to lose a deposit is to trade with a bot that uses some complicated or secret strategy that trader doesn’t understand. Even if developers guarantee steady profits and demonstrate significant results.


Conclusion:
Trading robots can make the life of a trader much easier, allowing automating many routine operations, increasing the speed of work, reducing error rates and fatigue. However, development of an effective trading strategy is the task of the trader and not the robot. It’s like a car that allows driving faster and more comfortable, but it is up for the driver to decide how to get to the destination. And most important, it is the driver who is responsible for all actions.


Please, share your stories related to the use of bots. Whenever they are successful or the opposite it will be interesting to read those.
Please, don't write in this thread if you don't have any experience in using trading-robots. Only comments from past or current users.
I really wish to make this thread of practical posts and free from pure theorists. Thank you for understanding.

Trading robots - wrong assumptions made by beginners - https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=1722689 - share your practical experiences!
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December 20, 2016, 05:34:17 PM
 #2

Trading forex or altcoin is a business and until a beginner see it so he will never understand the underlying factor relating to trading. Most of the trader that succeed in forex trading using robots have succeed using their skills , experience and knowledge in trading and transfer it to robots. The robot though intelligent cannot use or gathered fundamental issue and make an informed decision for successfully trading.
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December 21, 2016, 08:40:30 AM
 #3

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Most of the trader that succeed in forex trading using robots have succeed using their skills , experience and knowledge in trading and transfer it to robots.
Good point! Is is exactly what I'm trying to state. It is a trader who makes a robot profitable! It's not a pencil that writes a poem.

Trading is an art and bot is a tool like a pen.
If you have a talent you can make a masterpiece. If you don't, no tool will help you making anything remarkable.

Trading robots - wrong assumptions made by beginners - https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=1722689 - share your practical experiences!
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December 21, 2016, 08:47:29 AM
 #4

very good topic, and it was much needed in this board. I also see a lot of new topics asking about bitcoin bots and maybe the starter of that topic knows but not all the readers know about these things.

I always tell those who are talking about trading bots that they need to first learn things the hard way, and do everything by hand to understand all the strategies and then move on to using a bot. that way you can have a clear understanding of what that bot is doing for you not just click a button and expect magical things happen for you.

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December 22, 2016, 01:44:08 AM
 #5

I decided to start that thread when I read the one called "Do you use a bot for trading?" (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=1638032)
I realized that many traders don't understand the whole concept of trading robots. Some people simply don't believe in trading-bots and keep away from (not a bad idea actually), some are striving to find a moneymaking program that guarantees the steady income (very wrong start), and there are also traders who successfully use some bots to automate routine operations (I'm one of them).

Wrong assumptions to be aware of:
1.   There are no perfect robots, moneymakers that can guarantee the steady income with no respect to current market conditions. It just can’t be like that. Robots can make forecasts and perform superficial analysis with several criteria; however none of them can predict price changes (on the developed markets). The prices are constantly changing and there’s no such algorithm that is able to take all the factors into account and create a precise pattern of behavior. Thus, all the offers of smart robots with complex AI that can predict prices with more then 60% accuracy are nothing but a marketing trick. There are robots with optimized strategies, which were tested and well-proven on the past data; however, there’s no guarantee that such bots will be successful in the nearest future.

2.   The whole concept of artificial intelligence is terribly misunderstood. Beginners consider trading robots as incredibly complex software solutions, which are capable to perform thorough fundamental analysis of the market conditions and correctly predict the price more often than a group of live traders. Wrong. Some robots can work in accordance with incredibly complex strategies, analyse huge amounts of data, may imitate the learning process; however, there is no guarantee that forecasting will be profitable. There’s no sense in making an artificial intelligence that will copy behavior of a real trader. Simply because live traders are not perfect in what they are doing. There’s an amazing book of Nassim Nicholas Taleb about luck, uncertainty and probability. It’s called “Fooled by Randomness: The Hidden Role of Chance in Life and in the Markets”.

3.   Some traders believe that trading bots are too complex, trading strategies are difficult to understand, plus they require constant control from the trader. It’s not really like that in the majority of situations. Trading robots help to automate routine operations, such as price monitoring or order placement. If trader follows some working strategy, the latter can be automated and reduce the number of routine operations and possible human-factor mistakes. However, if trader has no strategy, it is strongly advised not to use any bots! The sure way to lose a deposit is to trade with a bot that uses some complicated or secret strategy that trader doesn’t understand. Even if developers guarantee steady profits and demonstrate significant results.


Conclusion:
Trading robots can make the life of a trader much easier, allowing automating many routine operations, increasing the speed of work, reducing error rates and fatigue. However, development of an effective trading strategy is the task of the trader and not the robot. It’s like a car that allows driving faster and more comfortable, but it is up for the driver to decide how to get to the destination. And most important, it is the driver who is responsible for all actions.


Please, share your stories related to the use of bots. Whenever they are successful or the opposite it will be interesting to read those.
Please, don't write in this thread if you don't have any experience in using trading-robots. Only comments from past or current users.
I really wish to make this thread of practical posts and free from pure theorists. Thank you for understanding.
 



The car can be broken in the middle, and you will never be forgetting about that. And it has made by the person, and there is a lot of cracks.
Totally all of your sentences was making sense for me.
Before I just use it for a short term, but looks like it difficult for adapting.

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December 22, 2016, 03:54:30 AM
 #6

great post. i've always liked the idea of automating trading. only seems like a natural progression.

i wanted to ask you where i could start learning more about using bots? would be fun to start tinkering with strategies.
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December 22, 2016, 04:26:15 AM
 #7

great post. i've always liked the idea of automating trading. only seems like a natural progression.

i wanted to ask you where i could start learning more about using bots? would be fun to start tinkering with strategies.

first learn the basics of trading.
then learn how to make successful trades that are profitable and spend a while with manual trading.
then learn about different strategies and fully understand how they work.
then try using them manually at least a couple of times.
then think about using a bot.
that is when you realize there is nothing called "learning more about using bots"

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December 22, 2016, 06:26:40 AM
 #8

Yes, now I see some adequate comments Smiley

Quote
do everything by hand to understand all the strategies and then move on to using a bot
Pursuer, Absolutely! I just don't get this twisted "laziness" of beginners who don't dedicate any time to learn the strategy behind the bot. It doesn't take much time! Why would someone risk his hard earned money and give them to some BlackBox? Waste weeks of real work to save a couple of hours on learning bots strategy... Seriously, I don't get this.

Quote
The car can be broken in the middle, and you will never be forgetting about that.
JeffBrad12, It's true, the car may get broken for various technical reasons! But some of those reasons can be explained by improper "technical servicing" maintenance performed by the driver (like running bots on unstable or insecure systems).
From my experience, technology failures happened only few times, but I can't claim the bot for it (I had an internet cut off, system restart due to an automatic update, taken out power supply...) At some point I said "enough of that crap" and moved the bot to the cloud! 


Quote
where i could start learning more about using bots?
CryptoBurger, I hope that this thread will become a good start within some time. But, do you have some particular trading strategy in your mind? Do you have an algorithm that you follow while trading that helps you generating some profits? In other words, do you already have something you wish to automate? Good start if so.
However, if you don't have your own set of steps, and only want to have fun with tinkering with various strategies implemented by various bots, most likely you will lose your deposit.


I believe that trader should only use those bots, whose strategy he can replicate manually (with his hands). The trader should be capable to do all the calculations (performed by bot) with a pencil and a paper. OK, we are technical people, we may let the trader to use an excel Smiley

Trading robots - wrong assumptions made by beginners - https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=1722689 - share your practical experiences!
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December 22, 2016, 07:28:15 AM
 #9

trading robot is makes our work more simple and easy to do, we only need to manage the robot to work properly as we want but its need to online in 24 hours and i think its not a good idea to use our pc to stay alive in 24 hours unless we have to use VPS. but the point is we can not see and can not learn much in trading while the process is automatically. for beginners, i don't think its a good idea because beginners can not learn much and they can not understand for manual trading.
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December 24, 2016, 08:44:59 AM
 #10

Fair assumptions about trading robots:
1.   Trading robots are able to monitor prices, buy and sell assets in an interruptible manner. Unlike live traders, trading robots do not require breaks/pauses, because they can’t get tired. Any trader will become tired during continuous work, while a robot can work as long as required. Programs don’t have physical needs, they don’t sleep.

2.   Trading robots are stable and fast. If the trader needs some time to take a decision and enter the data to place an order (the quantity of assets and the selling\purchasing prices), the robot will do that in a split-second.

3.   Trading robots are emotionless. The trader may have doubts or be scared to lose money, thus making affected decisions and totally forgetting about the current trading strategy or money management practices. Constant stress can also be the reason of many trading mistakes. The robot has no emotions, it simply follows the algorithm, strictly observing all the rules.

4.   Robots can’t make a typo (incorrect entry of correct data). The trader can be tired or annoyed and enter a wrong amount or just make a mistake (especially in case with numbers, e.g. 0.0000021 and 0.00000021). The robot can’t make such mistake, because it’s against the basic algorithm.

5.   Robots are versatile. One can use a robot on many exchanges at the very same time. It’s pretty tiring for a trader, especially in case when several orders have to be executed one by one. Furthermore, several robots can follow different strategies and work simultaneously.

Trading robots - wrong assumptions made by beginners - https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=1722689 - share your practical experiences!
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December 24, 2016, 12:45:54 PM
 #11

In my experience, trading bots which are suggesting the price levels to enter and exit are good instead of doing actual trading for ourselves. Yes, we need to pick the best suggestions made by bots based on our other researches and analysis.

The mix of manual trading and bot trading might give us some excellent results.

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December 24, 2016, 04:56:40 PM
 #12

Kinda noob and off-topic question here, I've been trading for quite sometime now for both forex and bitcoins, I was always curious on how to use trading bots but never had the chance to understand it though so my question is how can I use one for example at poloniex/bitmex?
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December 24, 2016, 06:52:19 PM
 #13

The mix of manual trading and bot trading might give us some excellent results.
I need to agree with this point as we could not completely ignore trading bots with the some wrong assumptions at the same time depending on trading bots completely sometimes may lead to disasters.

But having both trading bot and manual trading might give better results.

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December 24, 2016, 08:20:35 PM
 #14

What you said is right, I use bots for forex trading formerly, when i just know how to set up the bots it's can be a bad movement for me, because I don't know how the bots works, how the algo, looping, ect.
I know a teacher who made bots itself and sharing it public, he's also explain how the algorithm bots works, but in some situation this bots need to improve to adapting with the trend, this is like what you said, the experience and credibility from the trader itself which can improve the bot. The point is the bots only for simplify the work, take all action to the bots is big mistakes.
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January 06, 2017, 08:05:39 AM
 #15

The scalping strategy gives more predictable and clear results. Keeping in mind small difference between selling and purchasing prices the trader can execute several orders every day, thus creating significant profit. The main disadvantage of this strategy is that the trader is required to monitor execution of orders.

And trading robots can be used to solve this problem. Unlike all the traders, the bots can monitor the prices 24 hour per day and 7 days per week. Every trader needs to have a rest, because constant monitoring causes tiredness, which can result in a mistake and significant losses, while the robot is following a selected strategy and simply can’t make a mistake. Furthermore, the robot is monitoring the exchange rates with the rate of up to several times per minute and will perform required action faster than any trader.

Trading robots - wrong assumptions made by beginners - https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=1722689 - share your practical experiences!
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January 06, 2017, 07:57:53 PM
 #16

The scalping strategy gives more predictable and clear results. Keeping in mind small difference between selling and purchasing prices the trader can execute several orders every day, thus creating significant profit. The main disadvantage of this strategy is that the trader is required to monitor execution of orders.

And trading robots can be used to solve this problem. Unlike all the traders, the bots can monitor the prices 24 hour per day and 7 days per week. Every trader needs to have a rest, because constant monitoring causes tiredness, which can result in a mistake and significant losses, while the robot is following a selected strategy and simply can’t make a mistake. Furthermore, the robot is monitoring the exchange rates with the rate of up to several times per minute and will perform required action faster than any trader.
You got any better bot for scalping in bitcoin markets ? I heard there are a lot of scalping bots are available for forex market but not sure about bitcoin trading. If you have any, can share them here.

Scalping will be profitable, at the same time we need to follow one basic thumb rule of trading : more trades, more the losses.

Yet, we can capitalize each and every fluctuation of the bitcoin price movements by using scalping strategy. But I'm not sure about profitability of using any bots for it. If traders are capable of doing it manually, then this strategy will be definite profitable.
carap (OP)
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January 07, 2017, 05:50:37 PM
Last edit: January 07, 2017, 10:19:26 PM by carap
 #17

We - traders make profits by buying cheaper and by selling with a little premium (minus commission). A trader may set the selling price two times higher than what he bought for and wait a long time for price to grow till the desired level. How long it may take? Days, months, years..., there is no guarantee that such an order will ever be executed. However, if the trader is less greedy and is willing to sell for the price 10% higher than he originally bought for, chances are much higher. And if the price difference is about 1%, most likely the order will be executed the same day! Of course, if deposit is small the earning will be tiny. But if the process is totally automated (buying for X and selling for X+1%) a number of deals can be made every day (smaller percent, higher frequency of deals). The only problem is in automation of that strategy.

Kevin77, I personally use a trading robot which is a private development of my team and I'm not authorized to share it. Sorry. If we give it to other traders the strategy will no longer work for us as effectively. There are many different robots on crypto-markets and its already difficult to compete with them in scalping-like trading. Hope you understand, it's just business.
 
If you wish to find some trading-robot, you may begin searching that forum. I will not advertise any names, but from what I've seen, there some not-bad technologies that might help in automation of routine operations. I found few robots here that can be used to implement some simple strategies and may bring some profits (of course if you know what you are doing).

Trading robots - wrong assumptions made by beginners - https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=1722689 - share your practical experiences!
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January 29, 2017, 01:14:36 PM
 #18

OK, now it's time to mention another BIG and terribly wrong assumption: many traders assume that the use of bots is illegal, that automated trading is cheating, that markets are against bots! Look at those quotes:

I've never used any bots for trading.. I just do trading only a small time of daily bases.. and I think using bot is not good. as most trading sites don't allow it. if you still use it, it means you are breaking the rules which is illegal and can ban you from the site.

Do any of the exchanges have rules against using bots?
I would be very careful in admitting I used a bot. You might get your account closed and any of your coins seized if an exchange finds out you are doing automated trading.
(If it is against their terms of service.)

i think the trade site will block your account if you will use bot . because use of bot for satoshi site is not legal in view of admin . for example you use bot for trading at yobit.net but there is option to get faucet collection daily . so yobit will ban your account if they sure that you are using bot .
always use legit way to get trading profit and legit way for faucet also .

But honestly, I didn't know some bot program that allowed in some popular bitcoin exchanges.

No I Never Used Bot For Trading Because It is Not Allowed By Most Of The Trading Websites And If I Use It Then The Website Could Ban me For Breaking Their Rules....

Moreover, I think the use of bots is actually not allowed.

yeah , and another things some trading sites doesn't allows bot script to handle ac . so it is not much cool idea of bot trading .


ABSOLUTELY WRONG!
Most markets love Bots, because Bots (some trading strategies) generate a lot of volumes and markets receive lots of profits in commissions!

Think of it, why would some market publish detailed descriptions to their APIs if they don't want anyone to use those?

Possibly there are some markets that are against automation (some reported YoBit, I've never traded on it, so I can't confirm it).
In my opinion, the main reason for market not wanting any automation software is because of various badly written student-made bots that may overflow markets with their requests (implementing some sort of Denial of Service Attacks). Honestly, I wouldn't respect much the market that is afraid of bots, for me it's a sign of their weak infrastructure. Simply speaking, their servers/internet connection/routers are not good enough to handle big amounts of request. Meaning that sometimes, when things are not going in a unusual way (sudden pump/dump), when thousands of users come to trade, these markets might easily become overflooded with request, will become slow or may even "fall down", resulting in big losses for traders who needed to react quickly.

Thus my approach is rather simple - if market is not allowing me to trade with my bot, I conclude it is because their technology is not strong enough, and for that reason I wouldn't take a risk to trade with them! There are many great markets where bots are very welcome Smiley  
  
However, it is important to mention that every market has some limits on the allowed number of requests to be made per minute. And if your bot exceeds these limits it becomes a problem to a market, for that your account might be suspended.

My clue is, if market has an API section on their site, most likely they are not against automation. In order to play safe, better read about possible limits (number of requests allowed per minute, second, hour). If you can't find this information, I recommend making sure by contacting support and requesting them about possible limits, that will help you to avoid potential problems.

Trading robots - wrong assumptions made by beginners - https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=1722689 - share your practical experiences!
Bit2Easy
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January 29, 2017, 03:24:15 PM
 #19

Hey!
I've been learning a lot about trading recently, bought some bitcoin and traded some tiny profits in Poloniex. However, for the next week or two I am going to try out a trading bot, which buys for X and sells for X+1%. I think that's the best kind of trading bot, since it allows big daily volume that's hard to achieve manually, since it can literally do a thousand trades per day. If you guys want, I can post my results here along with my thoughts on the bot (how easy it is to use, does it work?).
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January 29, 2017, 03:30:57 PM
 #20

If you guys want, I can post my results here along with my thoughts on the bot (how easy it is to use, does it work?).

Of course, let us know on your results and experiences! This thread welcomes all practical posts, whenever those experiences were positive or negative.

Trading robots - wrong assumptions made by beginners - https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=1722689 - share your practical experiences!
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