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社科院:明年世界经济形势不容乐观 美国经济或成为不稳定源头
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Topic: 社科院:明年世界经济形势不容乐观 美国经济或成为不稳定源头 (Read 175 times)
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社科院:明年世界经济形势不容乐观 美国经济或成为不稳定源头
December 21, 2016, 05:00:53 AM
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12月20日,中国社会科学院世界经济与政治研究所和社会科学文献出版社共同发布《世界经济黄皮书:2017年世界经济形势分析与预测》。
世界经济增长形势不容乐观
黄皮书预计,2017年世界经济增长形势依然不容乐观,按PPP计算的世界GDP增长率约为3.0%,按市场汇率计算的世界GDP增长率约为2.4%。
社科院这一预测数据低于国际货币基金组织(IMF)和其他国际组织的预测。IMF此前预测明年全球经济增速为3.4%。
黄皮书提到,较低的预测主要反映了对世界经济潜在增长率下行、金融市场脆弱性加大、反全球化趋势、美国政策调整、欧洲内部政治冲突、难民危机、英国脱欧进程、日本通货紧缩等问题的担忧。
另外,黄皮书还预计,2017年大宗商品价格仍将在中低位运行,且略有上行。考虑到石油输出国组织(OPEC)已经达成减产协议,俄罗斯也承诺降低石油产量,原油价格将在2017年有所上升,并超过60美元/桶。
美国经济或成为世界经济不稳定源头
黄皮书称,随着特朗普当选美国总统和美国进入加息周期,美国经济可能成为导致世界经济不稳定的源头。
黄皮书预计,特朗普就任美国总统以后,其国际国内经济政策均会出现较大幅度的调整。其竞选过程中承诺的保护主义政策一旦全部或者部分实施,都将对外部世界造成不利影响,并有可能引发全球范围内保护主义政策密集出台,从而造成世界经济增长率进一步下降。
美国加息预期的变化也将反复扰动国际金融市场。黄皮书认为,发达经济体的宽松货币政策为国际金融市场提供了大量的廉价资本。大规模跨国资本流动容易造成部分国家外汇市场大幅度动荡,甚至频繁引发货币危机。自2016年11月以来,国际市场对美联储加息预期逐渐增强,国际资本又开始大规模流出新兴经济体,并流向美国,导致美元指数迅速攀升,其他国家的货币,尤其是新兴经济体的货币大幅度贬值。这种状况将随着美国经济的反复波动及加息预期的变化而反复出现,国际金融市场也将因此而出现反复动荡。
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