Latest Price Surge Due To Delayed Halving Effect?

[d5000]

The halving was already priced in because it was an expected event months before it was going to happen.

In part, you are right. The speculation on the halving is, in my opinion, the reason why the BTC price went up the whole first half of 2016.

The halving itself is not too important for the price: As I've pointed out several times in this forum, the only thing it did is that it lowered the growth of the money supply, but this growth is still is about 5% per year.

Bitcoin's fundamentals have changes since 2013 due to the growth of the dark markets and the increase in its use for criminal activities. The demand has grown. Let us all agree with that simple assumption.

I don't know if criminals are the reason, but that the demand has grown cannot be negated. At blockchain.info there are some interesting charts: block size, transaction volume (in transactions) and total paid transaction fees have grown strongly in 2016. All three are indicators of demand growth, but most notably the last one, because it means that the transaction volume growth was not due to spam increase (like in previous peaks) but because of real transactions because people are agreeing to pay slightly higher fees now.

[zero1ten]

Whatever is the reason on this current bitcoin price rally, we can all agree that this will benefit all the people who has interest on bitcoin and also this kind of price surges is what drives other people into joining bitcoin so in the end this will always be a win-win situation for the entirety of bitcoin.

[Wind_FURY]

The halving was already priced in because it was an expected event months before it was going to happen.

In part, you are right. The speculation on the halving is, in my opinion, the reason why the BTC price went up the whole first half of 2016.

The halving itself is not too important for the price: As I've pointed out several times in this forum, the only thing it did is that it lowered the growth of the money supply, but this growth is still is about 5% per year.

Bitcoin's fundamentals have changes since 2013 due to the growth of the dark markets and the increase in its use for criminal activities. The demand has grown. Let us all agree with that simple assumption.

I don't know if criminals are the reason, but that the demand has grown cannot be negated. At blockchain.info there are some interesting charts: block size, transaction volume (in transactions) and total paid transaction fees have grown strongly in 2016. All three are indicators of demand growth, but most notably the last one, because it means that the transaction volume growth was not due to spam increase (like in previous peaks) but because of real transactions because people are agreeing to pay slightly higher fees now.

Compare the amount of commerce and trades that has happened between the dark and criminal underground markets and the legitimate markets since the beginning and we can assume that a majority of that activity is in the dark markets. The reason is because Bitcoin has no need to be present in markets served by the banks and it is the only thing and everything that will support illegal, underground, dark markets.

[spiderbrain]

Yup, I have also been thinking that we were due a delayed halving effect. It takes a while for people to realise there just less coins around.

[CoinCidental]

That is one of the factors. As was the last time, halving limited the coin supply, so once the existing supply dried up and some event ignited buying, remaining sellside was gone and it fuelled a spike which brought more buyers  -> rally.

exactly ,many factors overall  but a shortage of coin supply  is definately one of them ........

[Przemax]

Its not about the halving but more like a tendency of people to forget but stuff after a while. All ths mtgoxes and shits are forgotten by a general public. So bitcoin has not a bad smell of bad pr to it right now.

[BitcoinBarrel]

Just like in 2012-2013 the price of BTC doubled after the halving ($90 to $180), and so I am expecting a nearly 1000% growth from the next speculative bubble (2017) before settling at around $2200. Of course, with more volume and long-term stability, this could mean even higher gains. This is just my opinion.

[lionheart78]

I think no.  Price increase is not due to delayed Halving effect.  As far as I understand it, effect should be before the halving since halving has been known when it will happen.  I think the price increase is still a manipulation of some group.  Though there maybe a larger base user today than it was way back 2013 but there is still a big chance that a few circle of whales way back those years had gone up in numbers enabling them to effectively control the market.  And they will be wiser today on not dumping a huge amount of bitcoin to cash out, they will do it without affecting the price (one indication is the dips in between the rise of prices).

[Red-Apple]

i doubt that is the reason.
all the halving effects have been seen after 2-3 months after the halving. and there may be some more effects but i doubt that they are directly enough to make the price go this high and this fast.

[deadpoolx]

I think this is one of the factors that most contributes to the direction that Bitcoin is taking in the market, the halving effect is continuous. A more limited supply, allied to a growing demand and an underlying economy, causes the price to rise more steadily, and in an organic way, of course.

[Kotone]

The beginning of the price surge was slightly delayed by a few months after the 2012 halving so yes, it's very possible that the run from $600 to what we're currently at is as a result of the halving.

How if the halving is right now not the months everyone knows? Bitcoin price was really pretty impressive that it grows to fast without month waiting i was really amazed of what bitcoin price right now let's pray for good.

[jjacob]

Yup, I have also been thinking that we were due a delayed halving effect. It takes a while for people to realise there just less coins around.

If this is indeed the driver, it has taken a long while for people to realize that there are lesser coins being generated. We are almost into 2017 now.
Bitcoin's market is way inefficient in this case. In other asset markets, public information is priced in instantaneously.

[lumeire]

Yup, I have also been thinking that we were due a delayed halving effect. It takes a while for people to realise there just less coins around.

Could also be due to the holiday season coming around that's why people are buying in more coins for their stashes.

[Kalamsid]

Yup, I have also been thinking that we were due a delayed halving effect. It takes a while for people to realise there just less coins around.

Could also be due to the holiday season coming around that's why people are buying in more coins for their stashes.

that right. The price rose a lot until the new year.