Is the current rally really that crazy?

[rogerwilco]

This isn't chart or market depth analysis, just a look at long term perspective.

I always look at log charts when trading anything, not because exponential growth looks like a straight line (though that's useful), not because it makes high values seem close (though that's fun), but because equal vertical distances represent equal percentage changes, which is more useful in trading than linear distances.

With that said, look at the long term path Bitcoin has traded at over on Bitstamp since 2012:



See that purple oval highlighting the last two candles? That's our current rally. Not only is it nothing so far compared to the giant bubbles of 2013, but it's peanuts even compared to the other two major run-ups since the bull run started in late 2015.

Granted, each of those did have some correction after reaching the top of their respective rallies, but the price still leveled off significantly higher than where it started. If this is merely the third of such mini-hypes on this bull run, we're still going a ways up before this is over.

And this is just my gut about a different topic, and I could be wrong, but I feel this may turn out to be a bit more significant of a rally than the last two.

Edit: The snapshot was taken when Bitstamp first hit $910.

[1714643165]

1714643165

[AlexM]

Agreed, I think we are way undervalued and when people see that think that they should be selling for $2000 not $900 then the price will continue rising. Today was faster than is usually healthy but we need to get up to $1000-$2500 and stay there for a prolonged period. If we do this then more and more good stuff will be developed for Bitcoin as the economy will be significant enough.

[angaper]

I have been a successful forex trader for several years and I still can't understand how there may be some people who still believe that the supposed signals provided by technical analysis and price action can really give us a clear picture of what will happen in the near future.

Apart from subjective guessing and personal desires, I do not see anything reliable in these forecasts.

[rogerwilco]

I have been a successful forex trader for several years and I still can't understand how there may be some people who still believe that the supposed signals provided by technical analysis and price action can really give us a clear picture of what will happen in the near future.

Apart from subjective guessing and personal desires, I do not see anything reliable in these forecasts.

Did you read my first sentence?

[The Sceptical Chymist]

Lol, looks like we've gone completely sideways since 2013, but I know that's not the case.  Either way I think we're probably in too steep a rise.  We're due for a correction, though I hate to use an overused term from financial journalism.  There's no other way to describe it.  Too much buying, and who knows if these are just short-term speculators or real investors.  Buying has to come from somewhere.

[BitcoinBarrel]

It really looks to me like the beginning of the 2013 rally, but only time will tell.

[CoinCidental]

Lol, looks like we've gone completely sideways since 2013, but I know that's not the case.  Either way I think we're probably in too steep a rise.  We're due for a correction, though I hate to use an overused term from financial journalism.  There's no other way to describe it.  Too much buying, and who knows if these are just short-term speculators or real investors.  Buying has to come from somewhere.

your correction might be from 2000 to settle at 1500 ..........

[akasma]

Yes, I agree with you. This race is very interesting . if all members still hold BTC , it will bring more profits as a christmas and new year gifts for all
Merry Christmas to all of you.

[gentlemand]

Well, if there is a crapping out after the present run I do hope it doesn't grind on as long as the last one. It's pleasing to see some proper action after what seems like forever. I'm not quite ready to go back to that yet but perhaps I never will be.

I'm not sure where everything stands in terms of near future potential. It's been a rapid rise but it still feels quite a way away from genuine insanity. It might not have even started warming up yet or perhaps it won't happen at all.

In a way I was more content with the nature of the preceding rise. Impressive but steady. True bubbliness in 2013 was amazing to observe but then there was that pesky aftermath.

[pooya87]

good analysis and although i am not particularly a fan of log charts but i like anything with a long term scope instead of looking at 1 week

also i have to say i think in any analysis you should also factor in the difference between today and those years. for example how different the resistances are and how different the supports are, and also always have in mind that back then there was MtGox's willibot hard at work.

[rogerwilco]

good analysis and although i am not particularly a fan of log charts but i like anything with a long term scope instead of looking at 1 week

also i have to say i think in any analysis you should also factor in the difference between today and those years. for example how different the resistances are and how different the supports are, and also always have in mind that back then there was MtGox's willibot hard at work.

Part of my point was that this current move is arguably small even when compared to other moves in the last 15 months, but yes, the difference from the 2013 bubble is even more stark.

The interesting thing to think about looking back is the number of actors. The price was more volatile back in the day not just because of the Willy bot, but also simply because there were fewer traders. Fewer traders means smaller changes in emotion affect the market more, adding to volatility. Unfortunately I don't know what the numbers then and now are, and I'm not sure anybody knows (other than there are probably more now).

[Przemax]

The last rally is just a begining it seems. But it might be the end of it. The time has changed. There are now new things:

1. There is no willy.
2. There are a lot of futures options.
3. There is more competition to the bitcoin.
4. More traders.

[zoinky]

1. There is no willy.

There is no *detected* willy.

[gentlemand]

I believe there are multiple low level willies in China. Look what happens when they turn their volume bots off. Not a great deal. It's more about maintaining the illusion of them being happening places rather than blatant naked pumping.

[pitham1]

The current rally doesn't look huge when you plot it on the log scale, but it is unlikely we will return to the hay days of the past.
Bitcoin is more widely distributed now and there will be a lot more people who are ready to book profits when it rises.

[deadsilent]

Now we are down again to $860+. Its a good rally tho. They are dumping their holdings right now so i hope the the price still at $800 barrier. I think $1000 is not possible before this year ends. Hope 2017 is good for bitcoin.

[ethereumhunter]

this is what i am thinking too when i look at the poloniex charts, it seems the price is not going to down or up for deep and higher but the rate will be reach in $900 again soon and we only hope its really happen before the new year.

[BTCLovingDude]

Now we are down again to $860+. Its a good rally tho. They are dumping their holdings right now so i hope the the price still at $800 barrier. I think $1000 is not possible before this year ends. Hope 2017 is good for bitcoin.

it is the correction phase, and it is perfectly normal in rises such as this last one that prices go down and market calms down for a little while and specially since it is the Christmas days things are more calm.

and who knows there is still a chance to see $1000 to a little chance to see it this soon but it still is there.

[kwukduck]

It's not crazy at all considering the level of manipulation and scamming going on, what surprises me is the apparent sheer number of people willingly getting scammed.

It IS crazy however considering all the flawed protocol fundamentals. But nobody looks at that, all most people here care about is to be on top of a pyramid scheme.

[Denker]

Now we are down again to $860+. Its a good rally tho. They are dumping their holdings right now so i hope the the price still at $800 barrier. I think $1000 is not possible before this year ends. Hope 2017 is good for bitcoin.

What we are seing now as a good and healthy correction!This is needed otherwise things might really go crazy!
And I don't want another 2014/2015 happening to be honest.
We will stay in the bull market so there is absolutely nothing to worry when we are going down a bit.
I mean people just need to have a look on the weekly charts!!! This speaks for itself!