benjamindees (OP)
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April 10, 2013, 11:59:37 PM |
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In the largest flash crash so far, in 2011, Bitcoin went from around $30 to around $3, losing 90% of its value. Today, Bitcoin went from $265 to $105, losing 60% of its value.
I predict this trend to continue, and for Bitcoin value to continue to become more and more stable as time goes on, even as the price rises.
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Civil Liberty Through Complex Mathematics
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dree12
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April 11, 2013, 12:06:08 AM |
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In the largest flash crash so far, in 2011, Bitcoin went from around $30 to around $3, losing 90% of its value. Today, Bitcoin went from $265 to $105, losing 60% of its value.
I predict this trend to continue, and for Bitcoin value to continue to become more and more stable as time goes on, even as the price rises.
I hope you realize that timescales make a difference. |
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benjamindees (OP)
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October 07, 2013, 07:23:12 PM |
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It turns out that timescale doesn't make a difference.   |
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theonewhowaskazu
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October 07, 2013, 08:26:40 PM |
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It went from $266 to $57 = an 78% loss, not a 60% loss. Assuming each crash is 13% smaller percentage-wise than the previous crash, and each 'cycle' takes 3 years, it would take about 20 years before the volatility of Bitcoin reduced below a reasonable level.
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N12
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October 07, 2013, 08:37:22 PM |
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The bottom was 50.01 on MtGox, so it's more than that. Furthermore, it happened in a much quicker timeframe than in 2011 (a few days vs. half a year), so I'd argue it was actually more volatile than before.
Yes, this is possible.
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notme
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October 07, 2013, 08:47:56 PM |
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The bottom was 50.01 on MtGox, so it's more than that. Furthermore, it happened in a much quicker timeframe than in 2011 (a few days vs. half a year), so I'd argue it was actually more volatile than before.
Yes, this is possible.
The volatility is larger on the smaller term, but in exchange we get less long term volatility. |
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benjamindees (OP)
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October 07, 2013, 10:42:29 PM |
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it would take about 20 years before the volatility of Bitcoin reduced below a reasonable level.
Perhaps, but define "reasonable." It's already reasonable in comparison to silver or gold. It's reasonable in comparison to some really crappy national currencies. And it's reasonable in comparison to alternative currencies like Liberty Reserve. That's all it needs to continue growing, and to continue stabilizing. |
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theonewhowaskazu
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October 07, 2013, 10:46:00 PM |
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it would take about 20 years before the volatility of Bitcoin reduced below a reasonable level.
Perhaps, but define "reasonable." It's already reasonable in comparison to silver or gold. Holy god no. It's reasonable in comparison to some really crappy national currencies. And it's reasonable in comparison to alternative currencies like Liberty Reserve. That's all it needs to continue growing, and to continue stabilizing.
WTF. How in any shape form or way was Libert Reserve 'unstable'? It was USD. It didn't fluctuate. Honestly I hope you are trolling. I'm as big a Bitcoin bull as anyone, but its still plain to see that we've got a LOOOOONG way to go before we get anywhere close to anything close to anything like stability. |
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benjamindees (OP)
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November 22, 2013, 05:49:05 AM |
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WTF. How in any shape form or way was Libert Reserve 'unstable'? It was USD. It didn't fluctuate.
It went to zero. It fluctuated 100%. Maximal instability. Game over.  I've seen a claim that the MtGox price dropped 50% on the day SR went down (Oct 3rd I believe). But I can't substantiate it. In the latest run-up, the Gox price seems to have dropped about 45% before stabilizing. But I'm sure many of you think it still has room to fall. |
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theonewhowaskazu
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November 22, 2013, 06:06:36 AM |
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WTF. How in any shape form or way was Libert Reserve 'unstable'? It was USD. It didn't fluctuate.
It went to zero. It fluctuated 100%. Maximal instability. Game over. Oh come now that's not fair. That's like saying Bitcoin whent to 0 when somebody hacked into your computer and stole it. Just because something is stolen doesn't mean it goes to 0. I've seen a claim that the MtGox price dropped 50% on the day SR went down (Oct 3rd I believe). But I can't substantiate it.
It didn't quite go down 50%, I don't think, but it went down a lot. |
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Pruden
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November 22, 2013, 01:20:56 PM |
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Bitcoin is more unstable with time. You have proof in the past week: What appeared as deep and sudden as a crash has turned out to be a correction.
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lucas.sev
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November 22, 2013, 01:23:11 PM |
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Bitcoin is more unstable with time. You have proof in the past week: What appeared as deep and sudden as a crash has turned out to be a correction.
what if you are as right as the OP who claimed that bottom is at 105 when it was in fact 2 times lower? |
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Pruden
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November 22, 2013, 01:30:24 PM |
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How can you see a paralelism between a claim made the same day of the crash and mine, 4 four days after the correction, when the third largest exchange is at its ATH?  |
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Benjig
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November 22, 2013, 02:03:42 PM |
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you will keep waiting  |
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