Former Bear Turned Bull...Find out why

[doobadoo]

Hi all, you may know me as the guy who sold out completely at $236 earlier today: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=171638.0

My logic was that there were far too many noobs who don't really understand bitcoin, but who are buying it because its simply going up.  I felt that the price had gotten rather extended and that when it sold off, they would all run for the exits and the bubble would pop.  Well something changed my mind.

Just now, MT. Gox has reported that in the first few days of april they've seen 75k new accounts created.  This compares to 60k for the entire month of march, and a run rate of about 10K new accounts in the Dec 2012 and previous time frame.  Further they say that they are getting 20k new accounts a day now: 
https://mtgox.com/press_release_20130411.html

However, new gox accounts are a leading indicator of future buying as it takes time for the money to clear, and i bet they are way behind on processing deposits, particularly on the larger accounts that need verification. 

Some of these prospective buyers may be deterred by the nearly 50% drop we saw intra-day today.  Some of the bigger holders will likely feel like we may be repeating the long and ugly decline from the summer of '11.  But i think these noobs will just bail it out.

Very long @ $168.   Lets see if my logic plays out!

[1715497138]

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[1715497138]

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[Crazy]

No offense, but you cashed out on the backs of newbies and now you're trying to sell hope to the new newbies? Come on. Once they all realize this isn't a get rich quick scheme, they aren't going to park their fiat in a random currency they just heard about for years. So yeah it may re-inflate, and ya you might make money off the next round of suckers. But long term, let's hope ADOPTION grows which creates organic demand because people can actually use it.

[kingcrimson]

Bitcoin is out of the box, there's no putting it back in.

[doobadoo]

No offense, but you cashed out on the backs of newbies and now you're trying to sell hope to the new newbies? Come on. Once they all realize this isn't a get rich quick scheme, they aren't going to park their fiat in a random currency they just heard about for years. So yeah it may re-inflate, and ya you might make money off the next round of suckers. But long term, let's hope ADOPTION grows which creates organic demand because people can actually use it.

Hey bro i'm all for slow addoption.  The wild price swings are making it impossible to actually do biz in this currency.  

As for making money off backs of noobs?  C'mon cheap shot.  I sold right and bot back almost right.  Of course gox was so messed up at lower prices that i probably couldn't.   Anyhow, their release is so damn bullish, that a solid bear thesis just went out the window.   When you have so many people pouring in you got to get long.  

Take me out back and hang me, seriously what do you expect me to do.  I am adding liquidity and will happily sell at the next top.  

[doobadoo]

You're not a bear or a bull, and nobody gives a shit about your prophetic "epiphanies".

Stop making these fucking threads.

God created a solution to that, its called the ignore button.   This is the speculation thread, price predictions, thesis, this is why people come here.  Don't be silly.

[Crazy]

Hey bro i'm all for slow addoption.  The wild price swings are making it impossible to actually do biz in this currency.  

As for making money off backs of noobs?  C'mon cheap shot.  I sold right and bot back almost right.  Of course gox was so messed up at lower prices that i probably couldn't.   Anyhow, their release is so damn bullish, that a solid bear thesis just went out the window.   When you have so many people pouring in you got to get long.  

Take me out back and hang me, seriously what do you expect me to do.  I am adding liquidity and will happily sell at the next top.  

I'm not trying to be an asshole, but you have to realize how you come across.

You just cashed out, perfectly timed. You made off pretty well I'm sure. And now that it's stabilized a bit and you bought back in, you're spreading a bull market hypothesis that will garner support for another run up. A run up you bought at the bottom of, mind you. You see how that looks crooked, right? I just call it as I see it man, if that offends you I'm sorry, but how else do you explain it?

They've been claiming all sorts of new users for weeks, and that's been part of all the bullishness around here, and you ignored it @ $236/coin. If they were coming in, they'd likely buy in at that high. But now? Not likely. They will be very timid.

Edit: And they should be timid! Even $173 is overvalued! If you're not using it, you're attempting to profit off an inflow of new capital. How else do you define bubble mentality?

[Elwar]

So, are you bullish on bitcoins or Federal Reserve Notes?

Because it sounds like you are quite gung ho about getting as many of those FRNs as you can.

[Crazy]

Well, since he was forcing people to buy his bitcoins and then forcing them again to sell, I see where you are.... oh wait! You used a gun for these transactions, right OP?

So being crooked means using force? K.

[NamelessOne]

Welcome back to the stampede! Congrats on your sell and buy back. I managed to gain a bunch myself. Today was but a much needed correction in a bull market. You helped since you saw it was needed. A correction to let off some extreme pressure is very good. When everything starts to settle in coming days, and climb, people in the media may begin to realize bitcoin might actually not be a bubble if it can survive a correction like this, haha.

[Crazy]

So if I sell you my house without telling you I had an oil tank that was leaking, I'm not crooked? Seems pretty voluntary to me, except we're not working with the same information, experience, or moral compass.

[Crazy]

Uhm, no.

[NamelessOne]

people in the media may begin to realize

I don't think so.

I read a decent amount of media today simply calling this a correction and not a bubble popping armageddon. When this gets into 200 and 266, people are going to get very excited/curious. There will be plenty of people sensationalizing and calling bubble, but there will be others going 'wait, look at this thing, it survives 50% drops, people want it, this is something the market wants'. Who knows, this is my speculation, haha.
.

[hubbabubbabaker]

Play on playa. Best of luck to you.

[doobadoo]

You see how that looks crooked, right? I just call it as I see it man, if that offends you I'm sorry, but how else do you explain it?

Well, since he was forcing people to buy his bitcoins and then forcing them again to sell, I see where you are.... oh wait! You used a gun for these transactions, right OP?

I'm always strapped when trading btc... ;0

[doobadoo]

So if I sell you my house without telling you I had an oil tank that was leaking, I'm not crooked? Seems pretty voluntary to me, except we're not working with the same information, experience, or moral compass.

Yeah little old me caused that selloff.  And i was in such control that i waited until i KNEW IN ADVANCE that gox was going to tell us they are opening accounts like crazy.  That's why i waited till after the release to buy back.  (/sarcasm)

For the record i had been selling since $70, dribs and drabs but then at $236 something clicked and I blew the mother load amount---all my coins.  Maybe it was the 50% rise in the last 2-3 days, realizing that it tacked on $600 mil in the blink of and eye that got me out (it was).  

And fyi to the guy who claimed that gox was talking about this for a while, that's not true.  They may have previously told us about some up ticks, but 75k accounts in the first 10 days of april, and now a 20k/day recent run rate!!!  That is totally new news.

That said i am only calling an intermediate bottom, i'll prolly scale out up a ways.  I still think we are in bubble territory, but i just think the run ain't done.  I am concerned about the 50% drop, it may scare the noobs, but then again there are so many lined up to fund their gox account, that this "new meat" will see the pullback as a healthy discount and want in.

Right now we are trading at a level that filled the drop by 50%.   Its nice to see half the drop back, and the more it holds this level the more likely it will go up.  Remember, sellers can move their btc into gox in just an hour, buyers are lined up for days.  Any one still panicking is selling here or soon, they will dry up fast against the influx of buyers that will come in over the next few days.

I'd like to thank gox for making this news public.  I don't think most of the speculators realize how bullish this is.    If these folks on average buy a few thousand dollars a piece thats hundreds of millions coming in!

Hundreds of millions can really move the price, b/c you have so many longs refusing to sell.  Those hundreds of million might only have access to a million or so coins worth of sellers.  Think about it.

[flyhouse]

What if those 75K accounts were created by one group of people with lots of money. And they created bots, linking them to every account, with resources at their disposal and programming them to simulate this market growth?

I am totally against Gox- these guys can't handle 100K accounts, and now they've got 20K new A DAY...