When do we hit $300 now?

[essem]

These discussion forums are strange. Each discussion consists of 30% sensible and thoughtful postings, interleaved with 70% idiot postings. I am getting used to this, but I still have to waste a few seconds on each idiot posting to recognize and ignore it.

Have the idiots still not lost all their money and disappeared? Many have, but new ones are always streaming in.

I would say 40% of it is deceptive, e.g. I'll tell everyone I'm holding BTC so they won't panic sell and I can get a better price for mine

[essem]

These discussion forums are strange. Each discussion consists of 30% sensible and thoughtful postings, interleaved with 70% idiot postings. I am getting used to this, but I still have to waste a few seconds on each idiot posting to recognize and ignore it.

Have the idiots still not lost all their money and disappeared? Many have, but new ones are always streaming in.

I would say 40% of it is deceptive, e.g. I'll tell everyone I'm holding BTC so they won't panic sell and I can get a better price for mine

however I also suspect that the vast majorty know very little about trading apart from what they might have read in an afternoon at babypips

[hgmichna]

You people obviously have no idea how asset valuation works. If people believed the price would be 300 in a few days, it would be 300 now. The current price is the best reflection of its future value.

From one angle you are perfectly right. But from another, some people have been able to predict future price movements correctly.

A simple example was the bubble. As the price went above $200, some people correctly said, this is a speculative price bubble, which will burst soon, and the price will subsequently sink below $200. In the event it went down almost to $100, followed by a bull trap, and some people predict that more bull traps will follow.

This is not only an asset valuation issue. It is also a psychological issue. And it is sometimes possible to foresee other factors influencing the price.

To put it in other words, if everybody believed the price should be $300, it would be $300 now, as you say. However, if some people believe it should be $300, while others believe it should be $20, then things are getting more complicated. It may take some time before one group realizes they were wrong and come round to the other valuation.

[ruski]

I see a price rise next week due to the large amount of money that is currently on its way to exchanges after the price fall last night, people want to buy in at these low prices and that will push the price back up.

Has anyone considered that 20,000 new accounts waiting to be verified may be 20,000 people with BTC they want to sell and withdraw the fiat from?

[essem]

I see a price rise next week due to the large amount of money that is currently on its way to exchanges after the price fall last night, people want to buy in at these low prices and that will push the price back up.

wondering why this people didn't save us during the last crash

[nwbitcoin]

This market is growing, but also maturing very quickly.

If MTGox has 20000 new accounts set up every day - there is no doubt why the price is going nuts every day recently.  However, the price rise still has to be sustainable, and 5% a day isn't!

1%-2% is manageable, but what other universe have you got value increases of that sort of magnitude, and people saying its normal?

[brodiegardiner]

I see a price rise next week due to the large amount of money that is currently on its way to exchanges after the price fall last night, people want to buy in at these low prices and that will push the price back up.

these are my thoughts exactly, everyone has been holding off for this opportunity and there not about to miss out.

[Sage]

The run isn't over.  We will hit 300 in less then 60 days.

Hear me now believe me later.

Cheers

[essem]

You people obviously have no idea how asset valuation works. If people believed the price would be 300 in a few days, it would be 300 now. The current price is the best reflection of its future value.

From one angle you are perfectly right. But from another, some people have been able to predict future price movements correctly.

A simple example was the bubble. As the price went above $200, some people correctly said, this is a speculative price bubble, which will burst soon, and the price will subsequently sink below $200. In the event it went down almost to $100, followed by a bull trap, and some people predict that more bull traps will follow.

This is not only an asset valuation issue. It is also a psychological issue. And it is sometimes possible to foresee other factors influencing the price.

To put it in other words, if everybody believed the price should be $300, it would be $300 now, as you say. However, if some people believe it should be $300, while others believe it should be $20, then things are getting more complicated. It may take some time before one group realizes they were wrong and come round to the other valuation.

it's easy to call things like that but without knowing their actual position and the amount at stake it is all meaningless.

Personally I wouldn't truthfully divulge when I am in and out especially if I had a significant amount at stake.

I'm not sure exactly where price should be but I have a feeling it is lower than the current price of ~ $170 and for that reason I am totally out of the market for now. Picking tops and bottoms is not something I would try ever, especially in a market like this

[essem]

I see a price rise next week due to the large amount of money that is currently on its way to exchanges after the price fall last night, people want to buy in at these low prices and that will push the price back up.

Has anyone considered that 20,000 new accounts waiting to be verified may be 20,000 people with BTC they want to sell and withdraw the fiat from?

no doubt a lot of late comers are waiting for price to rise high enough until they are breakeven....BULLTRAP

[ruski]

Personally I wouldn't truthfully divulge when I am in and out especially if I had a significant amount at stake.

Why not? If you had any credibility, you would post your own honest position and encourage others to follow suit. The only reason you wouldn't be honest about your positions is if you were lying in a feeble attempt to manipulate the market. Congratulations, you're the first person I've ever put on my Ignore list.

My position: Liquidated most of my BTC holdings at $240, and placed a market buy order with the proceeds when it broke under $170. It ended up getting filled at $130+.

[proudhon]

I see a price rise next week due to the large amount of money that is currently on its way to exchanges after the price fall last night, people want to buy in at these low prices and that will push the price back up.

Has anyone considered that 20,000 new accounts waiting to be verified may be 20,000 people with BTC they want to sell and withdraw the fiat from?

No, I don't think people are considering that, but that's what's being reflected in the charts right now.  We're seeing what we used to call "the orderbook flipping", which is to say that the asks are aggressively piling up while the bids thin way out.  It looks like a ton of money took a hike.  A week from now things are going to look very dismal (if you can't see it already) for prospects of going over $200 for a very, very long time.  It would now take over $6m to get back to the all time high, which is about as much as left the bids side over the past 48 hours.  Some of that $6m was just cashed out and won't be coming back.  Another good chunk of it was already spent in the bouncing around of the past 12 hours.  New all time highs are completely out of the question.

[ruski]

I see a price rise next week due to the large amount of money that is currently on its way to exchanges after the price fall last night, people want to buy in at these low prices and that will push the price back up.

Has anyone considered that 20,000 new accounts waiting to be verified may be 20,000 people with BTC they want to sell and withdraw the fiat from?

No, I don't think people are considering that, but that's what's being reflected in the charts right now.  We're seeing what we used to call "the orderbook flipping", which is to say that the asks are aggressively piling up while the bids thin way out.  It looks like a ton of money took a hike.  A week from now things are going to look very dismal (if you can't see it already) for prospects of going over $200 for a very, very long time.  It would now take over $6m to get back to the all time high, which is about as much as left the bids side over the past 48 hours.  Some of that $6m was just cashed out and won't be coming back.  Another good chunk of it was already spent in the bouncing around of the past 12 hours.  New all time highs are completely out of the question.

You had me a little worried until I saw your name, proudhon

[essem]

Personally I wouldn't truthfully divulge when I am in and out especially if I had a significant amount at stake.

Why not? If you had any credibility, you would post your own honest position and encourage others to follow suit. The only reason you wouldn't be honest about your positions is if you were lying in a feeble attempt to manipulate the market. Congratulations, you're the first person I've ever put on my Ignore list.

My position: Liquidated most of my BTC holdings at $240, and placed a market buy order with the proceeds when it broke under $170. It ended up getting filled at $130+.

Remarkably everyone here can pick perfect tops and bottoms

[HappyBitCoinUser]

Personally I wouldn't truthfully divulge when I am in and out especially if I had a significant amount at stake.

Why not? If you had any credibility, you would post your own honest position and encourage others to follow suit. The only reason you wouldn't be honest about your positions is if you were lying in a feeble attempt to manipulate the market. Congratulations, you're the first person I've ever put on my Ignore list.

My position: Liquidated most of my BTC holdings at $240, and placed a market buy order with the proceeds when it broke under $170. It ended up getting filled at $130+.

I'm adding him to my ignore too. This "I won't tell anyone" post is retarded. No reason to read anything more from that person.

[essem]

I see a price rise next week due to the large amount of money that is currently on its way to exchanges after the price fall last night, people want to buy in at these low prices and that will push the price back up.

Has anyone considered that 20,000 new accounts waiting to be verified may be 20,000 people with BTC they want to sell and withdraw the fiat from?

No, I don't think people are considering that, but that's what's being reflected in the charts right now.  We're seeing what we used to call "the orderbook flipping", which is to say that the asks are aggressively piling up while the bids thin way out.  It looks like a ton of money took a hike.  A week from now things are going to look very dismal (if you can't see it already) for prospects of going over $200 for a very, very long time.  It would now take over $6m to get back to the all time high, which is about as much as left the bids side over the past 48 hours.  Some of that $6m was just cashed out and won't be coming back.  Another good chunk of it was already spent in the bouncing around of the past 12 hours.  New all time highs are completely out of the question.

http://i50.tinypic.com/2jecvpt.png

don't worry the invest funds will ride in to save us

[proudhon]

I see a price rise next week due to the large amount of money that is currently on its way to exchanges after the price fall last night, people want to buy in at these low prices and that will push the price back up.

Has anyone considered that 20,000 new accounts waiting to be verified may be 20,000 people with BTC they want to sell and withdraw the fiat from?

No, I don't think people are considering that, but that's what's being reflected in the charts right now.  We're seeing what we used to call "the orderbook flipping", which is to say that the asks are aggressively piling up while the bids thin way out.  It looks like a ton of money took a hike.  A week from now things are going to look very dismal (if you can't see it already) for prospects of going over $200 for a very, very long time.  It would now take over $6m to get back to the all time high, which is about as much as left the bids side over the past 48 hours.  Some of that $6m was just cashed out and won't be coming back.  Another good chunk of it was already spent in the bouncing around of the past 12 hours.  New all time highs are completely out of the question.

don't worry the invest funds will ride in to save us

[essem]

Personally I wouldn't truthfully divulge when I am in and out especially if I had a significant amount at stake.

Why not? If you had any credibility, you would post your own honest position and encourage others to follow suit. The only reason you wouldn't be honest about your positions is if you were lying in a feeble attempt to manipulate the market. Congratulations, you're the first person I've ever put on my Ignore list.

My position: Liquidated most of my BTC holdings at $240, and placed a market buy order with the proceeds when it broke under $170. It ended up getting filled at $130+.

I'm adding him to my ignore too. This "I won't tell anyone" post is retarded. No reason to read anything more from that person.

I pity the fool that comes to the speculation forum to gauge sentiment

[XXthetimeisnowXX]

You people obviously have no idea how asset valuation works. If people believed the price would be 300 in a few days, it would be 300 now. The current price is the best reflection of its future value.

not true, if the people in this forum think is worth that much then go out and buy it would raise the price like a whole dollar? what if we think it will hit 300 but only have so much to spend or nothing. but the Chinese and the hundred million billionaire in the WORLD think its going to be three hundred then as soo as there gox account is verified or there coinbase is verified than they will buy. this is not instant soup bro ...haha cup-o-noodles Just Add Hot Water, this takes time and with every new cust account verified it will rise.

the more i think about this the dumber it sounds.....hey everyone lets all believe its going to be worth a billion dollers by the end of the month. believe all ya want its not going to happen. mr top rammen.

[essem]

You people obviously have no idea how asset valuation works. If people believed the price would be 300 in a few days, it would be 300 now. The current price is the best reflection of its future value.

not true, if the people in this forum think is worth that much then go out and buy it would raise the price like a whole dollar? what if we think it will hit 300 but only have so much to spend or nothing. but the Chinese and the hundred million billionaire in the WORLD think its going to be three hundred then as soo as there gox account is verified or there coinbase is verified than they will buy. this is not instant soup bro ...haha cup-o-noodles Just Add Hot Water, this takes time and with every new cust account verified it will rise.

the more i think about this the dumber it sounds.....hey everyone lets all believe its going to be worth a billion dollers by the end of the month. believe all ya want its not going to happen. mr top rammen.

he didn't specify what people so you can probably assume he means the average bitcoin investor and an average price