Speculation Strategies? (Am a noob that has none - but is looking)

[Roccker]

Hi there!


How to say, i am a noob.

My speculation 'strategy' is:
1. Buy bitcoin (in my case low 2-digits)
2. Wait a year (for tax reasons; also i don't want to do daytrading)
3. Wait for a bubble
4. Sell in the bubble and rebuy lower (start at 1. again)

So, i guess that's not a strategy.
So far i am at Nr 3.
Of course the 'problem': When is it a bubble, when is the bubble over? This is not a method, it's vague words.
Eg right now. I guess the bubble is over.. i am like 50/50 if it's higher or lower in a week; was it just a small bubble, all kinds of thoughts. And i am staring at the bitcoin rate and somehow look for movement and think about if i should sell now or not. It's stupid.

'Finding a bitcoin trading strategy where i only buy/sell at the bubbles (and only at maximum once a year) and kinda gives me peace of mind'
is on my todo list. This post is a first step.

Thankful for any pointers! And to good posts/threads.
Thanks for comments.


(ps also thankful for links to websites (or software? i have no idea) where i can look at exponential moving averages and stuff)

[alani123]

Buy low- sell high is pretty much the most generalistic tactic. Don't get me wrong, it's the main way to profit through speculation but it's nothing too special either. However, bitcoin is close to all time highs as we speak. If you gave fear of missing out, don't act in a hurry. Think twice before buying bitcoin at levels such as the current ones.

[Roccker]

Mhm, my buys were 530 averaged.
Thanks for the tip of not buying now.
I guess the 'buy low, sell high' is even more simplistic then my 'strategy'
Now this 'strategy' would tell me to sell now, cause we are clearly high now (and higher than buy price).
But greed keeps me from selling. Or: in my 'feeling' this was not a 'real' bubble yet.

'Never buy and sell out of fear or greed' - read something like this once. One reason i would like myself to have a system.

Buy low, sell high..
If i sell high.. then i have to wait again till it's going down again.. so i should only sell high if i believe it will fall lower
Do i believe it will be lower than 960 (at the moment). Surely. But if the bubble continious it will be eg 2 months before that happens (i have no idea).
So.. sell some of my bc? I guess that would be wise.




(ps do you know a site (or software) where you can watch the entire chart of bitcoin, since 2009? (and do moving averages and stuff)?)

[OgNasty]

Best strategy.  HODL.

[angaper]

Buy low- sell high is pretty much the most generalistic tactic. Don't get me wrong, it's the main way to profit through speculation but it's nothing too special either. However, bitcoin is close to all time highs as we speak. If you gave fear of missing out, don't act in a hurry. Think twice before buying bitcoin at levels such as the current ones.

This basic rule of speculation sounds very easy ans simple, but there is always the difficulty of knowing and identifying the right time to sell, especially in a market that has proven to be so oblivious to the laws of ordinary markets.

But in these times when the historical highs are close, you could sell a portion of your coins, and do it gradually as the price goes up, or buy more as he price go down.

[JimboToronto]

Best strategy.  HODL.

I'll second that. It's by far the most successful strategy.

I'll add a little to that though... buy the dips and never sell unless you absolutely must.

It may feel weird buying a dip and paying twice what you paid last time, but keep accumulating even if the price continues to fall.

The price will eventually rise again to a new ATH, even if it takes years as it did after the ATHs in 2011 and 2013.

Hold and prosper.

[tabnloz]

Best strategy.  HODL.

Best performing currencies, past 6 yrs:
2011: BTC +1500%
2012: BTC +299%
2013: BTC +5400%
2014: USD +13%
2015: BTC +37%
2016: BTC +130%

So unless you bought near tops and sold during a downswing, holding has been a very profitable strategy. And for something that has the potential to revolutionize finance, destroy the monetary status quo and (hopefully) protect your wealth, there could be a long way to go. Bitcoin is largely still a fringe thing and 'untested' in the eyes of many (eg how will it perform during a recession?)

[Roccker]

Thanks

My strategy is 'hold until there is a bubble'. A bubble is not so often.. Only.. like 2 in the last 3 years?

Found a post with books:
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=60501.msg767312#msg767312

Found this one interesting:
http://stockcharts.com/school/doku.php?id=chart_school:trading_strategies:bob_farrell_10_rules
Funny correlation: When newb-investors are the most bullish, it's time to sell and price will fall hard soon.
And when newb-investors are the most bearish it's time to buy.

Found the website where you can watch moving averages and complete history of bitcoin price
http://www.bitcoincharts.com

Because i only want to sell in bubbles i guess i would look for books and stuff about bubbles.
Here is one
https://www.amazon.com/Speculation-Trading-Bubbles-Kenneth-Lecture-ebook/dp/B00KV1KPAS/ref=tmm_kin_swatch_0?_encoding=UTF8&qid=1483046928&sr=1-5


What is the 'technical marker' for how 'extreme' a price is compared to past prices?
I think it's how much the current price is under / over the trendline.
Is there any website that can show a trendline?
What do you use for analysing stuff

[talks_cheep]

We haven't had a proper "bubble" since 2013. Are we in a bubble? I really don't know, it seems to me like a slow rising but bubbles can be slow in forming. Just don't forget the incoming bloodbath in January.

[Taki]

Speculation is when you buy cheap and sell expansive. That is the main idea of speculation. So there is no difference with which currency you will provide it. But bitcoin is the best choice ever today, because of the price changes so fast.

[Huge Black Woman]

Ifn you bought in in the 500s, then yo bubble is now, gorilla.  Ain't noshame in takin yo money off the table.  Like Kenny Rogers say, you gots ta know when ta foldem.  We already sky-muthafuckin-high rite now.   Y'all don't want ta buy more.  You doin the rite thang by hoddlling but cashin out aint stupid neither.

[eddie13]

You don't always HAVE to rebuy lower than you sold.. For example..

Btc is having a hard time going through $1k right now.. mmkay..

Put a sell order in the high 900's as high as you think it will hit while it's beating on this resistance..

If it doesn't go through $1k then cool, rebuy when it stops going down..

If it goes through $1k cool, buy immediately and ride the breakout pump..

What do you feel the chances of it going down/up are? 10/90? 50/50? 90/10?

Well then sell 10/90 50/50 or 90/10

Sit on your comfortable position and be prepared to act immediately in either direction as soon as new data is available to you.. Like crossing resistance or support vanishing..

some places might let you have if/then orders so you can leave it unattended like stops..
If btc price >/= to $1001 buy XX BTC..
If btc price </= to $930 sell xx BTC..

Most of my stash is cold because I'm a Bitcoin believer, I like to say "BTC to $10k" jokingly but in reality I believe the chances of it going to 10k before ZERO are about 99.99%..

My trading position on huobi is sitting margin long and I don't really care if it's margin called because it's funds already written off as an education expense trying a new exchange.. I jump on now and then and "sell high buy low" to increase my stake, but default position is all in.. I'd get to it before it called me anyway, no fear..
No fear = win a lot of the time even if it's a position "just for the lolz"..

Like PEPES.. I saw them darn rare pepes early and thought it was hillarious and a cool blockchain experiment so I bought like maybe $30 worth just for the lolz.. Pulled over .8 BTC back out of it by now and still counting..

If you have large capitol you are trying to trade then you need a market like BTC for it's liquidity to let you in..
If your not messing with enough to push a small market then you can make much easier larger %s elsewhere..

Edit: Also, this ain't no real bubble yet..
If I start to think it is bet your ass I'm gonna panic buy and I haven't yet, I have no online fiat but I have more BTC that I could margin buy more with when panic time comes..
You just want to be one of the early panicers and then dump on the late panicers..

Basically if it dumps from here I'm not sellin crap anyway unless I'm in daytrade mode just trying to increase my BTC steak..

[oblomov]

(ps also thankful for links to websites (or software? i have no idea) where i can look at exponential moving averages and stuff)

Here is a good charting link:

https://www.tradingview.com/chart/BTCUSD/0YN7UaS5-BTC/

[lottery248]

remind you that bitcoin is so far have little chance in which its price will drop severely. bubbles are probably being stable now, since the base of users.
your startegy is too simple and risky ().

[Hazir]

Black text = original post   Green text = my comments:

My speculation 'strategy' is:
1. Buy bitcoin (in my case low 2-digits)It doesn't matter how many BTC you buy, any number is good as BTC will be worth more over time
2. Wait a year (for tax reasons; also i don't want to do daytrading) You have to be elastic here, don't set any time goals, when you will be satified with the price then you sell.
Also your location is important, some countries don't have any law/regulations so you may have to avoid taxes
3. Wait for a bubble Again, wait for the satisfactory price, bubble or not.
4. Sell in the bubble and rebuy lower (start at 1. again)

So, i guess that's not a strategy.
So far i am at Nr 3.
Of course the 'problem': When is it a bubble, when is the bubble over? This is not a method, it's vague words. Knowing that can be tricky. Usually you can tell by observing technical indicators of Bitcoin price charts, you want take a look at overbought conditions, SMA and RSI
Eg right now. I guess the bubble is over.. The bubble is not over, bullish trend still continues, we might see price breaking over $1000i am like 50/50 if it's higher or lower in a week; was it just a small bubble, all kinds of thoughts. And i am staring at the bitcoin rate and somehow look for movement and think about if i should sell now or not. It's stupid.

[pooya87]

a bubble is when the price goes very high and very fast. and when i say goes high you should look at the percentage rise in the said time frame not how much the price is. for example many were calling this rise a bubble but it was about 10% rise in the early days when they were saying that and it is still low at 15%ish rise.

if you want to sell in these small rises you have to be a day trader not a long term hodler who looks for a bubble to sell. for example you sell on the 15% rise and buy when it went down 3-5% and rinse and repeat in short term.

[traderethereum]

Hi there!


How to say, i am a noob.

My speculation 'strategy' is:
1. Buy bitcoin (in my case low 2-digits)
2. Wait a year (for tax reasons; also i don't want to do daytrading)
3. Wait for a bubble
4. Sell in the bubble and rebuy lower (start at 1. again)

So, i guess that's not a strategy.
So far i am at Nr 3.
Of course the 'problem': When is it a bubble, when is the bubble over? This is not a method, it's vague words.
Eg right now. I guess the bubble is over.. i am like 50/50 if it's higher or lower in a week; was it just a small bubble, all kinds of thoughts. And i am staring at the bitcoin rate and somehow look for movement and think about if i should sell now or not. It's stupid.

'Finding a bitcoin trading strategy where i only buy/sell at the bubbles (and only at maximum once a year) and kinda gives me peace of mind'
is on my todo list. This post is a first step.

Thankful for any pointers! And to good posts/threads.
Thanks for comments.


(ps also thankful for links to websites (or software? i have no idea) where i can look at exponential moving averages and stuff)

its still good strategy for you because the other people's strategy will not always work for another person and we need to found what is strategy that work properly for us and we need to search more to find it. but for the best strategy is you can buy when the price is low, safe it for a while and when the price is jump into higher price than you bought, you can sell it to get profit.

[Biro Bob]

Buy a little more than you need for day to day expenses so you have some surplus.

Don't spend fiat money you are going to need in the next year or two

Allow for a severe Bitcoin price drop... but hope that it won't.

Assume that barring any disaster, it will recover... but that may take a long time.

Don't sell at the bottom... hahah!

Use cash you aren't going to need to 'cash out in an emergency'

Buy a little more here and there and pay for things with Bitcoin... and top up your spent Bitcoin when its lower. Whatever the price.. you're usually getting a discount on your bills if you time it right.

I paid my phone and electric a few days ago... but bought back the BTC I spent today at a discount.

(I also speculate on 1 of the high volume anonymous ALTS at Poloniex)