Predict the price January 1, 2018 (wrap up of last year's predictions)

[Elwar]

So I posted the question last year of what people predicted the price would be January 1, 2017
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=1309383.0

Price currently $960 on bitcoinaverage (will update the January 1 price)
Price when thread was started was about $430

Here are some of the early predictions:
My prediction: $750

Closest specific predictions:
1Referee: I will say $1000.
diegz: price might be  $1000 or below that..
LFC_Bitcoin: 925 USD
BellaBitBit: 878.00
Junko: $1337
Oceriw: $872

Range predictions:
sillug: Around $1,000
bajing: around $1000
~Bitcoin~: i expect price to swing between 800-1k
Dux2K: 800 - 1000
rjclarke2000: I'd say between $750 and $1k.
coinzat: 500 to $1000

So close:
Emersonnets: $1000+
tekno: 900-950$
ivanst776: $700 - $900
Blue_Tiger73: I predict around $1000 by the end of January. JOKES. Probably around $700.
icem3lter: around $900


And then...
The Pharmacist: how about $430?  There's a good chance the price is going to go absolutely nowhere.
kwukduck: $37

What price do you believe bitcoin will be on January 1, 2018? I am curious to see what those that guessed close to this year's price have to say.

My prediction: $1,000
But I believe this will be the price on the way down from a new ATH, whatever that may be. (I was conservative in my last year's estimate too)



(I will lock the thread after January as the last thread became signature spammer paradise)

[1715088034]

1715088034

[jbreher]

I'll just recycle my fiscal 2014 forecast - one more time
2017's high: $7669
Deepest crash after the high: $1669
Close the year somewhere in between - let's split the difference at $4500.

[~Bitcoin~]

~Bitcoin~: i expect price to swing between 800-1k

Ok my prediction for last year was quite close to real price.  

I will expect price to swing between $3k and $2k through out 2017 so quite hard to predict exact price on end of 2017. I would like to predict anything near $2500 per bitcoin.

[Mr.grin]

Well, I think that the starting price for the year 2018 may be about 2x the current price, which is about $ 2000 for 1 bitcoin. Well, I'm sure, by the way, the price of bitcoin will increase quickly, making them even more popular. its popularity it would also make a very rapid development in economy and technology. Well, certainly, it will affect everything, and in 2018, bitcoin currency will be the most in the drill.

[practicaldreamer]

Between $2700 and $3200 imo.

I'll plump for $2785

nb. absolutely no TA went into this 

[Embat]

I have some concerns about the price. It is tottaly unpredictable and this volality can scare a lot of the retailers, companies and merchants. The game turns to gamble. I think we are just in begginig but later this will be a serious problem and bitcoin needs to have fixed price. Maybe some kind of voting from people who maintain nodes on the network or something like this. The banks and exchangers will pump the price this is sure. But have one in mind and down to earth with your predictions. Yes 2000 - 3000 range is acceptable. There is also another problem - the size of a entire blockchain and the progress of hardware technology. Be careful and trade wisely. Blockchain is the unique invention here and bitcoin is the first child of blockchain - so like an artefact of a human mind btc is really unique and valuable but how much in fiat nobody knows. I recommend you to watch FCT closely - don't look the price, because they are one of not so many who really understand blockchain technology and can describe the world in perfect math.

[thejaytiesto]

I have some concerns about the price. It is tottaly unpredictable and this volality can scare a lot of the retailers, companies and merchants. The game turns to gamble. I think we are just in begginig but later this will be a serious problem and bitcoin needs to have fixed price. Maybe some kind of voting from people who maintain nodes on the network or something like this. The banks and exchangers will pump the price this is sure. But have one in mind and down to earth with your predictions. Yes 2000 - 3000 range is acceptable. There is also another problem - the size of a entire blockchain and the progress of hardware technology. Be careful and trade wisely. Blockchain is the unique invention here and bitcoin is the first child of blockchain - so like an artefact of a human mind btc is really unique and valuable but how much in fiat nobody knows. I recommend you to watch FCT closely - don't look the price, because they are one of not so many who really understand blockchain technology and can describe the world in perfect math.

Bitcoin is still tiny, the marketcap is too small to expect any sort of market stability. The only way out now is up, since every time new money enters the ecosystem the price will keep going up. You will not find retailers and merchants complaining about the price going up... they only complain when it goes down. Well fuck them. Bitcoin is ultimately digital gold, if merchants and retailers cannot deal with this fact, let them keep accepting dollars only and see if they regret 10 years from now.

[LFC_Bitcoin]

Bitcoin price on January 1st 2018 - I will take a stab at $2500

[kryptqnick]

The price of btc is now around $1000. Let's see the statistics of btc price after it became $1000 before. We can see that it was November, 2013. The price was above $1000 in the end of the month. Then for less than two weeks (nov 25 - dec 5) the price was above and sometimes a bit below $1000. And then came the sudden drop to $830 and so on. In a year it became $372. http://www.coindesk.com/price/#2013-11-25,2014-11-25,close,bpi,USD
Now, let's say that the price is not that dynamic and it is in a way more important and interesting that btc in $1k now than it was then (because it is more complicated to mine btc now). Then my guess that on Jan 1, 2018 the price will be $500.

[kuzza]

I ll make a guess that bitcoin next year will be $1888

[lionheart78]

The price of btc is now around $1000. Let's see the statistics of btc price after it became $1000 before. We can see that it was November, 2013. The price was above $1000 in the end of the month. Then for less than two weeks (nov 25 - dec 5) the price was above and sometimes a bit below $1000. And then came the sudden drop to $830 and so on. In a year it became $372. http://www.coindesk.com/price/#2013-11-25,2014-11-25,close,bpi,USD
Now, let's say that the price is not that dynamic and it is in a way more important and interesting that btc in $1k now than it was then (because it is more complicated to mine btc now). Then my guess that on Jan 1, 2018 the price will be $500.

You forgot the factor of adoption and development here.  You just included negative stuff that makes the price plummet.  How about adding events that makes the price surge to make it more convincing Consider the 2016 events too, and the possible updates of Bitcoin in the next months of 2017.  We know Bitcoin does not stop in 2015 that is why we are @ $1k now. (though I admit that is some kind of calculation  )

Anyway cutting previous events and considering price growth of 2016, and halving the net profit, that would be around $1600 @ Jan. 2018 this is a mere estimation and a wild guess with some wild mathematical calculation LOL.

[ErisDiscordia]

9331$/BTC

This prediction was generated by rolling a 20-sided die 4 times.

[quake313]

And then...
The Pharmacist: how about $430?  There's a good chance the price is going to go absolutely nowhere.
kwukduck: $37

27x whatever kwukduck predicts 

[Elwar]

Looks like none of us were even close.

Closest was ErisDiscordia with his scientific approach to prediction.

[cybersofts]

Looks like none of us were even close.
Closest was ErisDiscordia with his scientific approach to prediction.

Well, it appears bitcoin reached an unimaginary level in January 1st, 2018. Bitcoin selling at $13,000 this time, very few people thought it was possible back in January 2017.

[ErisDiscordia]

Looks like none of us were even close.

Closest was ErisDiscordia with his scientific approach to prediction.

My failure was not having enough trust to roll the die 5 times...but yeah I think I still solidly beat out most of the TA experts out there