Down trend --- old thread

[amencon]

Well your upper trend line did seem to mark the high for today rather well.  How long do you think the price will hold between your top and bottom lines?

[1714879086]

1714879086

[dandirk]

Well your upper trend line did seem to mark the high for today rather well.  How long do you think the price will hold between your top and bottom lines?

Not an expert by anymeans but generally speaking the pattern is "over" once the upper/lower resistance levels are broken.  Notice how the lines are angled and indicate (in this case) a downtrend?  The idea is that the price will stay within those bounds during the downtrend.  Resistance levels adjusted as time goes on. 

Also please be aware that these are generally guidelines, the over-all pattern of TA is generally more accurate then the exact numbers... a 100 resistance line in TA could actually be between at 85-115... so you have to be patient and careful when following the TA indicators.  The "tighter" or you try and play the ups/downs the more risk/loss of opportunity you could take.

I find it helps to think of price changes in % to keep things in perspective and to steady your hand a bit.  OMG it went up $10... well that is less then 10%... do you JUMP on a 10% must not miss sale or a 30%?  This view helps me from not panicking as much.

[amencon]

Well your upper trend line did seem to mark the high for today rather well.  How long do you think the price will hold between your top and bottom lines?

Not an expert by anymeans but generally speaking the pattern is "over" once the upper/lower resistance levels are broken.  Notice how the lines are angled and indicate (in this case) a downtrend?  The idea is that the price will stay within those bounds during the downtrend.  Resistance levels adjusted as time goes on. 

Also please be aware that these are generally guidelines, the over-all pattern of TA is generally more accurate then the exact numbers... a 100 resistance line in TA could actually be between at 85-115... so you have to be patient and careful when following the TA indicators.  The "tighter" or you try and play the ups/downs the more risk/loss of opportunity you could take.

I find it helps to think of price changes in % to keep things in perspective and to steady your hand a bit.  OMG it went up $10... well that is less then 10%... do you JUMP on a 10% must not miss sale or a 30%?  This view helps me from not panicking as much.

Thanks for the explanation, makes sense and confirms what I assumed, also good advice about the % vs $ outlook and I'm sure that's why some like to use log charts. 

I guess I should have worded my question better.  I was wondering how long he thought the trend would remain unbroken.  The range between his top and bottom line (would this be called the channel?) is so large that on a small time scale it's quite likely the price will not break either line.

You say the price should stay within those bounds during the downtrend, but any idea how long the trend is suspected to last?

Are there other TA methods to determine this within some range of likelihood?

[afbitcoins]

Heres my latest chart which is 3 months, on a log price scale




I'm modified my thinking in terms of a closing wedge rather than a down channel now. The red line is the top line of the down trend channel I've been drawing on charts in this thread. Down trend is about to meet long term support (you have to look at a chart going back to 2011 to see where  the green line comes from!

If we assume this wedge is valid for the sake of argument. Which way will it break ?  

[mobodick]

Well your upper trend line did seem to mark the high for today rather well.  How long do you think the price will hold between your top and bottom lines?

Not an expert by anymeans but generally speaking the pattern is "over" once the upper/lower resistance levels are broken.  Notice how the lines are angled and indicate (in this case) a downtrend?  The idea is that the price will stay within those bounds during the downtrend.  Resistance levels adjusted as time goes on. 

Also please be aware that these are generally guidelines, the over-all pattern of TA is generally more accurate then the exact numbers... a 100 resistance line in TA could actually be between at 85-115... so you have to be patient and careful when following the TA indicators.  The "tighter" or you try and play the ups/downs the more risk/loss of opportunity you could take.

I find it helps to think of price changes in % to keep things in perspective and to steady your hand a bit.  OMG it went up $10... well that is less then 10%... do you JUMP on a 10% must not miss sale or a 30%?  This view helps me from not panicking as much.

If this is true then it realy sucks.
85-115 is a +-15% error at 100.
Since the price stays within these limits most of the time it means that most of the time your error would be larger than the thing you actually try to predict.
With such an error rate you can only state the obvious about the near future.
We will go down untill we go up.

[Ichthyo]

Also please be aware that these are generally guidelines, the over-all pattern of TA is generally more accurate then the exact numbers... a 100 resistance line in TA could actually be between at 85-115... so you have to be patient and careful when following the TA indicators.  The "tighter" or you try and play the ups/downs the more risk/loss of opportunity you could take.

If this is true then it realy sucks.
85-115 is a +-15% error at 100.
Since the price stays within these limits most of the time it means that most of the time your error would be larger than the thing you actually try to predict.
With such an error rate you can only state the obvious about the near future.
We will go down untill we go up.

Maybe it escaped your attention, but the proponents of TA rarely ever include any error boundaries when they publish any numbers.
I think, overall TA would be much more credibly and way less controversial if we'd acquire the habit to publish an error guess alongside with every number.

e.g "if the rate breaks through the support at $80 +-15% for more than 1+-5 days we'll be in a real downtrend"

[mobodick]

Also please be aware that these are generally guidelines, the over-all pattern of TA is generally more accurate then the exact numbers... a 100 resistance line in TA could actually be between at 85-115... so you have to be patient and careful when following the TA indicators.  The "tighter" or you try and play the ups/downs the more risk/loss of opportunity you could take.

If this is true then it realy sucks.
85-115 is a +-15% error at 100.
Since the price stays within these limits most of the time it means that most of the time your error would be larger than the thing you actually try to predict.
With such an error rate you can only state the obvious about the near future.
We will go down untill we go up.

Maybe it escaped your attention, but the proponents of TA rarely ever include any error boundaries when they publish any numbers.
I think, overall TA would be much more credibly and way less controversial if we'd acquire the habit to publish an error guess alongside with every number.

e.g "if the rate breaks through the support at $80 +-15% for more than 1+-5 days we'll be in a real downtrend"

It most certainly did not and i fully agree with what you say here.

[SgtSpike]

So, it went up.

[superduh]

all the quasi TA should just go cry in the corner they will be more wrong than right

[dandirk]

The 10%... this was just a nice round number...  In almost any other investment especially short term, it is a large (HUGE) margin, my thoughtlessness for sure.  You are completely right about error margins and accuracy with those numbers (especially lately with such tight ranges), though the general idea is still pretty sound.  Some that post TA which I have followed generally have the pattern predicted right but the levels are long/short a bit.  This just requires a bit of patience and a bit of knowledge to identify how much time you may have to make a decision.

[Seal]

$100 will trigger a whole load of buys and reverse any trend. Psychologically the $100 is an important crossing point.

[mobodick]

...though the general idea is still pretty sound.

No it is not sound. If someone would have acted on this idea they would have lost their money.
That is the opposite of sound.


Now i'm not saying that proper TA cannot give insights, but drawing a few lines is just gambling.

[afbitcoins]

This down trend is so last week! Please read about the developing up trend here

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=204958.0