sub0 (OP)
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April 11, 2013, 05:34:21 PM |
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We are now 3+ hours into the Mtgox 12 hour trading outage and I'm sure everyone is wondering where the price will go when trading resumes.
I think the price will rise and here's why:
If you are anxious to SELL right at this moment; you can open an account with another exchange right away, transfer your coin within an hour and sell them.
If you are anxious to BUY right at this moment; you can open an account with another exchange, but due to the delays in transferring fiat you have no ability to get your funds into that account within the 12 hour window.
Also, presumably, there is a lot of fiat tied up in Mtgox accounts during the outage that is/was intended to be used to buy more coin.
The conclusion being that the ability to buy during the outage is limited whereas the ability to sell is not.
If the above reasoning is accurate, then it seems to me that buying pressure is now suppressed. When trading resumes, that released pressure should push the price higher.
Thoughts?
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wopwop
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April 11, 2013, 05:36:52 PM |
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seems legit basis
BUY
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cr1776
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Merit: 1301
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April 11, 2013, 05:37:56 PM |
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I have no idea, however after the NYSE in the US was closed from 9/11 to 9/17/2001, the markets fell about 7% on the open. I think whichever way BTC<->USD (or other fiat) goes after the open, it will be larger than 7%. Your logic below makes some good sense by the way. We are now 3+ hours into the Mtgox 12 hour trading outage and I'm sure everyone is wondering where the price will go when trading resumes.
I think the price will rise and here's why:
If you are anxious to SELL right at this moment; you can open an account with another exchange right away, transfer your coin within an hour and sell them.
If you are anxious to BUY right at this moment; you can open an account with another exchange, but due to the delays in transferring fiat you have no ability to get your funds into that account within the 12 hour window.
Also, presumably, there is a lot of fiat tied up in Mtgox accounts during the outage that is/was intended to be used to buy more coin.
The conclusion being that the ability to buy during the outage is limited whereas the ability to sell is not.
If the above reasoning is accurate, then it seems to me that buying pressure is now suppressed. When trading resumes, that released pressure should push the price higher.
Thoughts?
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empoweoqwj
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April 11, 2013, 05:38:14 PM |
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I think they will resume trading and then have to shut down again.
As for price, no way for a big price rise - sideways or down is my bet - especially if the trading lag kicks in again. This is going to get worse before it gets better. Someone needs to replace MtGox and quickly else we'll be back down to $10
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ensign_lee
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April 11, 2013, 05:41:17 PM |
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Can you still withdraw btc from gox during the outage? :?
If so, then yeah, your logic makes sense.
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SgtSpike
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April 11, 2013, 05:46:21 PM |
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It'll fall pretty sharp as more people panic sell, then begin its treacherous climb back up to $250.
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ECore
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April 11, 2013, 05:49:38 PM |
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There is nowhere to go but UP. As soon as the demand for stability is answered then BOOM!!! EXPLOSION TO THE MOON! they may try to stop bitcoin but I will never let them hehe.
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kwukduck
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April 11, 2013, 05:59:35 PM |
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It'll fall pretty sharp as more people panic sell, then begin its treacherous climb back up to $250.
It will drop like a rock, i'm sure about that, but i don't see it climbing back to 250 any time soon, maybe back up to 50 in a few weeks, slowly.. Which is only good for price stability. |
14b8PdeWLqK3yi3PrNHMmCvSmvDEKEBh3E
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ABitBack
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April 11, 2013, 05:59:58 PM |
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I'm glad they did close this so that everyone has time to become aware of the situation. BUT! Mt.Gox is not going to hold up when everyone gets on it at opening times. They need to use this time to get their shit together and handle this like a boss.
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blockbet.net
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Admin at blockbet.net
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April 11, 2013, 06:02:36 PM |
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Depends on which side has more capital...
Newbies with their bitcoins vs enthusiasts with their dollars (or other currency)
My expectation is that the enthusiasts will buy all the available cheap bitcoins pretty quickly, and from there on, it will continue to rise again.
(I won't be involved in the trade either way)
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Severian
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April 11, 2013, 06:03:25 PM |
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There is nowhere to go but UP.
Mtgox has basically said, "Come get your money when we re-open". The price will tank but will recover someday. |
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Boelens
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April 11, 2013, 06:22:04 PM |
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I'm very confident it will go up very quickly. I'll be buying some BTC and watch it go up, and watch my profits.
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Gimpeline
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April 11, 2013, 06:24:46 PM |
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I think it will go a little down at first and then up again
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vdragon
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April 11, 2013, 06:28:07 PM |
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Gox has to rewrite its whole software, because this one was written by retards, and also had to make some kind of filters.
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nikkisnowe
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April 11, 2013, 06:29:05 PM |
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What will it open at?
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BTCisthefuture
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April 11, 2013, 06:32:23 PM |
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I think it will go down. I feel like this action, combined with the media flurry that's going to follow this action will result in a panic in many people.
One of the reasons (amongst others) that BTC has soared in price recently is due to lost confidence with banks and governments. The recent plunge in prices, ddos attacks, exchanges halting trades is going to result in a lot of lost confidence in bitcoin amongst the speculators and people who just jumped on in hopes to get rich quick.
I hope it doesnt happen, but if I had to get a guess (and I could be wrong) I think prices will drops. I don't see how any of this helps build confidence that bitcoin is a sound investment. These type of things simply dont happen in stable investments.
This reminds me of cyprus. Banks/government were worried about everyone taking their money out so they froze everyones account. Now mt. gox seems to be doing the same. Anytime somethings gets frozen in it's tracks it sends the message that people who have the power to do so aren't confident.
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uMMcQxCWELNzkt
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April 11, 2013, 06:36:24 PM |
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It seems the general consensus is down, any suggestions on a time scale? A week, a month? Just curious as I will be able to start buying in a couple of days. This is just out of curiosity, I wont be acting on peoples predictions lol.
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kgo
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April 11, 2013, 06:39:46 PM |
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Last time, after they ended up being down for weeks, it actually wasn't that crazy when trading resumed. Everyone acted reasonably. But then slowly and surely over months the price went down until it bottomed out at $2.
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1l1l11ll1l
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April 11, 2013, 06:46:03 PM |
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Last time there was a major BTC meltdown due to their error, they reversed everything didn't they?
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kgo
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April 11, 2013, 06:49:13 PM |
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Last time there was a major BTC meltdown due to their error, they reversed everything didn't they?
Yes. But that wasn't a real meltdown. Real BTC and $ weren't being exchanged. |
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