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Author Topic: Stop freaking out. We lost 2 weeks & returned to a sane exponential line.  (Read 3188 times)
TsuyokuNaritai (OP)
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April 11, 2013, 06:41:27 PM
Last edit: April 11, 2013, 07:15:17 PM by TsuyokuNaritai
 #1

We are now exactly where we would have been if we had just continued the steadily rising exponential growth of January and February, before the March Madness.

If you got in two weeks ago, you are still up right now.

Nothing fundamental has gone wrong with bitcoin itself. This fallback was a combination of the price getting ahead of itself and gross negligence & unpreparedness on the part of certain exchanges.

People are preparing to set up more exchanges as we speak.

Even if there are more flash crashes this week shaking out weak hands, once the exchanges problem is dealt with there is nowhere to go but up.

[Edit - that last sentence went too far. There'll be lot more flash crashes for a long time, and there is always a chance that bitcoin could fall to zero. But the fundamentals have not changed, and they point to bitcoin continuing to go up exponentially in the long term, however bumpy the roller-coaster gets].

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April 11, 2013, 06:44:18 PM
 #2

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April 11, 2013, 06:51:14 PM
 #3

like the phrase "goxed".

and what goes down can also go up - esp bitcoin.

And does go up.
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April 11, 2013, 06:51:33 PM
 #4

We are now exactly where we would have been if we had just continued the steadily rising exponential growth of January and February, before the March Madness.

If you got in two weeks ago, you are still up right now.

Nothing fundamental has gone wrong with bitcoin itself. This fallback was a combination of the price getting ahead of itself and gross negligence & unpreparedness on the part of certain exchanges.

People are preparing to set up more exchanges as we speak.

Even if there are more flash crashes this week shaking out weak hands, once the exchanges problem is dealt with there is nowhere to go but up.

+1 Every single word.

The best thing that comes out of this is the bitcoin infrastructure growing to meet such challenges and demand as has been met recently.

On a personal note the amounts of coin and fiat I hold have both grown during this time period, while I've been doing the service of providing my small portion to market stability.

Bitcoin trinkets now on my online store: btc trinkets.com <- Bitcoin Tiepins, cufflinks, lapel pins, keychains, card holders and challenge coins.
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April 11, 2013, 06:57:33 PM
 #5

go to campbx, it APPEARS trades ARE taking place... but I honestly don't have a full picture of what is going on,  we have the largest exchange down, 20,000 feeder exchanges down (due to getting some info from Mt.Gox)  .. we got guys even in localbitcoins refusing to make trades because they don't know the accurate price.


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April 11, 2013, 06:59:38 PM
 #6

We are now exactly where we would have been if we had just continued the steadily rising exponential growth of January and February, before the March Madness.

If you got in two weeks ago, you are still up right now.

Nothing fundamental has gone wrong with bitcoin itself. This fallback was a combination of the price getting ahead of itself and gross negligence & unpreparedness on the part of certain exchanges.

People are preparing to set up more exchanges as we speak.

Even if there are more flash crashes this week shaking out weak hands, once the exchanges problem is dealt with there is nowhere to go but up.

Up into another bubble and into another crash in an endlessly repeating cycle of greed and idiocy on the account of people like you.
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April 11, 2013, 07:00:51 PM
 #7

Great points...good to keep a clear head.. .

.SUGAR.
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TsuyokuNaritai (OP)
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April 11, 2013, 07:16:44 PM
 #8

We are now exactly where we would have been if we had just continued the steadily rising exponential growth of January and February, before the March Madness.

If you got in two weeks ago, you are still up right now.

Nothing fundamental has gone wrong with bitcoin itself. This fallback was a combination of the price getting ahead of itself and gross negligence & unpreparedness on the part of certain exchanges.

People are preparing to set up more exchanges as we speak.

Even if there are more flash crashes this week shaking out weak hands, once the exchanges problem is dealt with there is nowhere to go but up.

Up into another bubble and into another crash in an endlessly repeating cycle of greed and idiocy on the account of people like you.

Onesalt is a troll, but even trolls can force a needed reality check.

My last sentence went way too far and I have edited it.

moni3z
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April 11, 2013, 07:18:26 PM
 #9

This is a good thing for many reasons.

1) hopefully an exodus away from monopoly exchanges that manipulate price with incompetence
2) banking hacks posing as journalists will get to say 'i told you bitcoin was a joke' which means less wallstreet hacks and speculators jumping on the bitcoin bandwagon so BTC can grow naturally
3) less people will hoard bitcoins so my customers can buy them and pay me to ship software
4) i can buy a bunch of coins on the slide down and store them for 2 years like I did last crash

Luckily this crash I had my money in cavirtex and not frozen by MtGox again
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April 11, 2013, 07:18:42 PM
 #10

No, I lost a lot in the first crash and lost faith in bitoin. Trying to convince people the same way is no crime, it's basically charity.
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April 11, 2013, 07:26:15 PM
 #11

Personally I don't care if bitcoins are $10 or $500 what I do want is for them to be STABLE. If they became stable we could actually use them as a currency rather than a speculative vehicle.

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onesalt
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April 11, 2013, 07:26:59 PM
 #12

Personally I don't care if bitcoins are $10 or $500 what I do want is for them to be STABLE. If they became stable we could actually use them as a currency rather than a speculative vehicle.

Pretty much this, if bitcoins had stable value instead of stupid bubbles then it might be useful but as it is now it's so unstable trying to trust in it is a waste of time and money.
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April 11, 2013, 07:47:28 PM
 #13

We are now exactly where we would have been if we had just continued the steadily rising exponential growth of January and February, before the March Madness.

If you got in two weeks ago, you are still up right now.

Nothing fundamental has gone wrong with bitcoin itself. This fallback was a combination of the price getting ahead of itself and gross negligence & unpreparedness on the part of certain exchanges.

People are preparing to set up more exchanges as we speak.

Even if there are more flash crashes this week shaking out weak hands, once the exchanges problem is dealt with there is nowhere to go but up.

Up into another bubble and into another crash in an endlessly repeating cycle of greed and idiocy on the account of people like you.

Onesalt is a troll, but even trolls can force a needed reality check.

My last sentence went way too far and I have edited it.

Both OP and your response make you look very wise in my eyes. もうだいぶ強くなっているよ Wink
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April 11, 2013, 07:51:35 PM
 #14

go to campbx, it APPEARS trades ARE taking place... but I honestly don't have a full picture of what is going on,  we have the largest exchange down, 20,000 feeder exchanges down (due to getting some info from Mt.Gox)  .. we got guys even in localbitcoins refusing to make trades because they don't know the accurate price.

Yup, CampBX seems to be doing perfectly fine.  Been trading there all day.  Surprised more people aren't, since they should be able to get their money over there from Gox via Dwolla pretty quickly.
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April 11, 2013, 07:57:27 PM
 #15

Wonderful! A person that joined the forum in the last couple weeks NOT spewing inept FUD garage in ten different threads. Great post. This correction was needed badly, and it is healthy. In this case it was a huge one because the recent gains were huge.
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April 11, 2013, 07:57:44 PM
 #16

yah, I has a theory that posters on here who only exclusively talk about bitcoin price do not love btc for what it is but are pure speculators out to make fiat. btc lovers will prefer to have stable btcusd as poster above said so that the retail and trade side of the bitcoin ecosystem can function properly. which business or consumer will transact with a currency that is rapidly appreciating by 100% every week?!?

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TsuyokuNaritai (OP)
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April 11, 2013, 07:57:49 PM
 #17

We are now exactly where we would have been if we had just continued the steadily rising exponential growth of January and February, before the March Madness.

If you got in two weeks ago, you are still up right now.

Nothing fundamental has gone wrong with bitcoin itself. This fallback was a combination of the price getting ahead of itself and gross negligence & unpreparedness on the part of certain exchanges.

People are preparing to set up more exchanges as we speak.

Even if there are more flash crashes this week shaking out weak hands, once the exchanges problem is dealt with there is nowhere to go but up.

Up into another bubble and into another crash in an endlessly repeating cycle of greed and idiocy on the account of people like you.

Onesalt is a troll, but even trolls can force a needed reality check.

My last sentence went way too far and I have edited it.

Both OP and your response make you look very wise in my eyes. もうだいぶ強くなっているよ Wink

ありがとうございます。 Wink

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April 11, 2013, 08:02:28 PM
 #18

Personally I don't care if bitcoins are $10 or $500 what I do want is for them to be STABLE. If they became stable we could actually use them as a currency rather than a speculative vehicle.

Pretty much this, if bitcoins had stable value instead of stupid bubbles then it might be useful but as it is now it's so unstable trying to trust in it is a waste of time and money.

How can it be stable without a central bank?
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April 11, 2013, 08:02:56 PM
 #19

We are now exactly where we would have been if we had just continued the steadily rising exponential growth of January and February, before the March Madness.

If you got in two weeks ago, you are still up right now.

Nothing fundamental has gone wrong with bitcoin itself. This fallback was a combination of the price getting ahead of itself and gross negligence & unpreparedness on the part of certain exchanges.

People are preparing to set up more exchanges as we speak.

Even if there are more flash crashes this week shaking out weak hands, once the exchanges problem is dealt with there is nowhere to go but up.

[Edit - that last sentence went too far. There'll be lot more flash crashes for a long time, and there is always a chance that bitcoin could fall to zero. But the fundamentals have not changed, and they point to bitcoin continuing to go up exponentially in the long term, however bumpy the roller-coaster gets].

True words - too much hoopla around here.. Hehe - price increasing - we're going to the moon! Price decreasing: This is the end of bitcoin!
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April 11, 2013, 08:20:55 PM
 #20

One thing I've learned from this is how to spot sentiment changes. I had a bunch of theories about bubble indicators:

  • Usually level-headed bulls getting inexplicably arrogant and/or dogmatic
  • Former bears "seeing the light" for flimsy reasons or only because of their envy at bulls' fortunes
  • Bears no longer being predominantly trollish or incoherent thinkers or people missing some obvious fundamental point, but actually raising real potential concerns or actually seeming intelligent and un-arrogant
  • Double exponential growth on merely exponential fundamentals
  • Glut of speculators with basic knowledge gaps about Bitcoin
  • NEWS BLITZ CANNOT BRING IN NEW STRONG HANDS IN TWO WEEKS, because it takes longer than that to learn enough about Bitcoin to become a strong hand


I suspected all these might indicate froth, and it seems I was right. But the final blow-off happened too fast for me to do anything with that knowledge. Next time I'll sell 10% or so as soon as I see these signs.
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