$55 - really? Really? Really?

[botlove]

somebody accidentally triggered a massive bot panic, that's all.

please sell me cheap coins, I'm buying.  =)  

i'd rather lose my money on bitcoins than make profit with centralized privately owned bank notes.
but in the end, those with the stomach to endure the swings will prevail victorious.  it's not every day that a massive infrastructure for processing currency transactions is deployed internationally....  nobody will break it.  =)

[420]

Someone is dumping hard to drive price down in order to buy a lot at low price

The electricity cost for GPU miner is the fundamental factor for bitcoin price, currently 1G hash gives 0.06 bitcoin per day, using $3 electricity, that is about 50 USD for 1 bitcoin

A non fungible commodity like gold or oil cannot drop below their price of production. I am uncertain as to why you apply this same logic to bitcoins, which are simply one of many fiat based mediums of exchange. The fact that you decide to waste CPU cycles to mine bitcoins does not somehow confer any underlying economic validity on that activity; when bitcoin crashes you can't exchange those wasted cpu cycles for something useful. When the tulip market crashed tulips fell well below their cost of production because one the speculative bubble burst their commodity value was deemed to be effectively zero.

things like silver & uranium are and have dropped and remain at prices below the cost of production

[darkmule]

Clearly too much reliance is placed on dodgy exchanges like Gox, which may very well be part of the market manipulation in the first place.  For all I know, Gox shut down trading to protect their own position, or to encourage more panicking.  I have difficulty accepting the purity of their motives.

[revans]

Someone is dumping hard to drive price down in order to buy a lot at low price

The electricity cost for GPU miner is the fundamental factor for bitcoin price, currently 1G hash gives 0.06 bitcoin per day, using $3 electricity, that is about 50 USD for 1 bitcoin

A non fungible commodity like gold or oil cannot drop below their price of production. I am uncertain as to why you apply this same logic to bitcoins, which are simply one of many fiat based mediums of exchange. The fact that you decide to waste CPU cycles to mine bitcoins does not somehow confer any underlying economic validity on that activity; when bitcoin crashes you can't exchange those wasted cpu cycles for something useful. When the tulip market crashed tulips fell well below their cost of production because one the speculative bubble burst their commodity value was deemed to be effectively zero.

things like silver & uranium are and have dropped and remain at prices below the cost of production

No they haven't, not when they are mined without state subsidy.

[botlove]

somebody removed their support when they shut their systems down.  They probably shut their systems down because they saw the price was too high. The big fish don't really want to sell their reserves, so they can't sat an upper limit on the market.  But they don't exactly want Joe User making a profit by selling their stash at such a high price, because then the market makers would have potential competition during the rebuys.  So...  It's not pretty, but it's not all bad to stall the price climb a little bit while the currency gets ready for prime time...

[420]

Someone is dumping hard to drive price down in order to buy a lot at low price

The electricity cost for GPU miner is the fundamental factor for bitcoin price, currently 1G hash gives 0.06 bitcoin per day, using $3 electricity, that is about 50 USD for 1 bitcoin

A non fungible commodity like gold or oil cannot drop below their price of production. I am uncertain as to why you apply this same logic to bitcoins, which are simply one of many fiat based mediums of exchange. The fact that you decide to waste CPU cycles to mine bitcoins does not somehow confer any underlying economic validity on that activity; when bitcoin crashes you can't exchange those wasted cpu cycles for something useful. When the tulip market crashed tulips fell well below their cost of production because one the speculative bubble burst their commodity value was deemed to be effectively zero.

things like silver & uranium are and have dropped and remain at prices below the cost of production

No they haven't, not when they are mined without state subsidy.

look at the silver spot; then look at the bottom right here:
http://seekingalpha.com/article/1298981-what-it-really-costs-to-mine-silver-endeavour-silver-edition

[revans]

Someone is dumping hard to drive price down in order to buy a lot at low price

The electricity cost for GPU miner is the fundamental factor for bitcoin price, currently 1G hash gives 0.06 bitcoin per day, using $3 electricity, that is about 50 USD for 1 bitcoin

A non fungible commodity like gold or oil cannot drop below their price of production. I am uncertain as to why you apply this same logic to bitcoins, which are simply one of many fiat based mediums of exchange. The fact that you decide to waste CPU cycles to mine bitcoins does not somehow confer any underlying economic validity on that activity; when bitcoin crashes you can't exchange those wasted cpu cycles for something useful. When the tulip market crashed tulips fell well below their cost of production because one the speculative bubble burst their commodity value was deemed to be effectively zero.

things like silver & uranium are and have dropped and remain at prices below the cost of production

No they haven't, not when they are mined without state subsidy.

look at the silver spot; then look at the bottom right here:
http://seekingalpha.com/article/1298981-what-it-really-costs-to-mine-silver-endeavour-silver-edition

It's nonsense, as are many similar back of fag packet calculations made by people hyping silver. The numerous profitable silver mining operations are a testament to just how wrong-headed such analysis is

[JCviggen]

The real question is what will happen when Gox resumes at 02:00 GMT.

a) since people can cancel open orders, it's fair to assume that most of the bids that were made will be cancelled. They were at much higher prices than what the other markets are at now. But there will be plenty of people who still want to sell at that higher price so they leave their orders in. Result? All sellers no buyers, very quick very deep crash with a big bounce up straight after.

b) Gox users have looked at other exchanges and noticed that the sky hasn't fallen, bitcoin isn't worthless they are still going for way more than they were a few weeks ago. Price will stabilize quickly and move upwards.


Going by what I've seen today, I'd put my money on option a. If Gox' servers couldn't handle a regular panic with bots fighting each other then this is going to be even worse. Data will be delayed creating a negative feedback loop.

[revans]

The real question is what will happen when Gox resumes at 02:00 GMT.

a) since people can cancel open orders, it's fair to assume that most of the bids that were made will be cancelled. They were at much higher prices than what the other markets are at now. But there will be plenty of people who still want to sell at that higher price so they leave their orders in. Result? All sellers no buyers, very quick very deep crash with a big bounce up straight after.

b) Gox users have looked at other exchanges and noticed that the sky hasn't fallen, bitcoin isn't worthless they are still going for way more than they were a few weeks ago. Price will stabilize quickly and move upwards.


Going by what I've seen today, I'd put my money on option a. If Gox' servers couldn't handle a regular panic with bots fighting each other then this is going to be even worse. Data will be delayed creating a negative feedback loop.

So basically you can only envisage 2 scenarios, both which result in the bitcoin bubble reinflating rapidly.

Are you familiar with the phrase 'the wish being the father of the thought'? Seems rather apposite here.

[johnyj]

Someone is dumping hard to drive price down in order to buy a lot at low price

The electricity cost for GPU miner is the fundamental factor for bitcoin price, currently 1G hash gives 0.06 bitcoin per day, using $3 electricity, that is about 50 USD for 1 bitcoin

A non fungible commodity like gold or oil cannot drop below their price of production. I am uncertain as to why you apply this same logic to bitcoins, which are simply one of many fiat based mediums of exchange. The fact that you decide to waste CPU cycles to mine bitcoins does not somehow confer any underlying economic validity on that activity; when bitcoin crashes you can't exchange those wasted cpu cycles for something useful. When the tulip market crashed tulips fell well below their cost of production because one the speculative bubble burst their commodity value was deemed to be effectively zero.

Why do you think the same logic could not apply to bitcoins? There have been numerous comparison between bitcoin and gold and I think bitcoin wins by a large extent

Gold can be confiscated, can't be carried over boards, difficult to store large amount, difficult to transfer, difficult to identify the purity...

Tulips are not worth comparing, they can't even last a couple of months, you must find the next fool before it dies

True, bitcoin itself does not have some real value, just a number, but the network as a whole holds great value

FED writes 85 billions USD into his account each month, itself does not have any value, just a number. But as long as every other bank are willing to sell assets to FED in exchange of these numbers, these numbers have value. Actually bitcoin is better in this sense, it is generated using electricity, not just write number of 0s

[MatTheCat]

Wait Wait Wait.

MtGox tells me the current price is $124.

Where is everyone getting $55 from?

Is MTGox actually down and posting a false price to placate anyone not in the know?

Anyone that knows Gox isn't Bitcoin you mean?

Yes, very good.

But if I can go on Mtgox and sell my Bitcoins for $124, then I don't care what other markets are offering only $55.

[johnyj]

Another possible reason of this crash is that there are too few number of powerful players now in the exchange

Suppose that there is one large trader from Goldman Sachs playing here, a typical strategy is:

1. Buy the coins on the rise, dump it from time to time and buy those dumped coins back after the crash, to make a illusion of crash immune. After 3-4 such move, the price will be very high and he accumulated large amount of coins

2. Dump large amount of coins, and this time he don't buy back immediately, but sell all the way down and cause panic selling and buy all the coins (and maybe much more) back during panic at a much lower level

Since bitcoin exchange is very illiuqid, this is a better way to acquire large amount of coin without push the exchange price to heaven

But this operation have some risk, if there is a hedge fund bought all the coins he dumped at higher price, he ends up with no coin at hand and have to buy them back at a much higher price. So if there are more and more large players in the exchange, the exchange rate will be more stable

[JCviggen]

So basically you can only envisage 2 scenarios, both which result in the bitcoin bubble reinflating rapidly.

Are you familiar with the phrase 'the wish being the father of the thought'? Seems rather apposite here.

There's a million different scenarios, that's true. I have no clue on the middle term outlook at all. But short term...everybody is playing "guess the bottom" with $$$$ ready to jump onto those cheap coins.

They might all go broke (well it's a zero sum game obviously) in a month, but come today and tomorrow the above scenarios are most likely in my humble opinion.

[Come-from-Beyond]

$55 - really? Really? Really?

Agree. Looks quite overpriced 

[420]

gox now resuming at 11 JST

whatever time that fucking is

[Twerka]

Do you want a healthy price for bitcoins? Then do not sell, simple as that.

But there is:

1) Those who mine coins and want it to be as higher value as possible. In this way it will be adopted and everybody can buy things with coins.
2) Those who don't care about the outcome of the coins; maybe mine, or maybe has a big wallet with a lot of dollars. Wants the coin cheap to buy, and wait to be high to sell. Wants to speculate, buy low and sell high. They damage the coin.
3) Those who don't know what to do, the sheeps who follows. If everybody is selling, they sell; if everybody is buying, they buy. This "no think people" are easily manipulated and if a "speculator" wants the price low they can persuade this little guys to do what they want.

Sadly, the most important (and the bigger) group of people is the last one. If they can't be tricked, then you have a good value on bitcoin and a stable market. But if they pay attention to speculator, then, they believe when they say: "Sell now, it's dropping!!" or "BTC is Skyrocketing, BUY BUY BUY".

[MatTheCat]

The real question is what will happen when Gox resumes at 02:00 GMT.

a) since people can cancel open orders, it's fair to assume that most of the bids that were made will be cancelled. They were at much higher prices than what the other markets are at now. But there will be plenty of people who still want to sell at that higher price so they leave their orders in. Result? All sellers no buyers, very quick very deep crash with a big bounce up straight after.

b) Gox users have looked at other exchanges and noticed that the sky hasn't fallen, bitcoin isn't worthless they are still going for way more than they were a few weeks ago. Price will stabilize quickly and move upwards.


Going by what I've seen today, I'd put my money on option a. If Gox' servers couldn't handle a regular panic with bots fighting each other then this is going to be even worse. Data will be delayed creating a negative feedback loop.

So basically you can only envisage 2 scenarios, both which result in the bitcoin bubble reinflating rapidly.

Are you familiar with the phrase 'the wish being the father of the thought'? Seems rather apposite here.

Tee hee.

That phrase could be applied to 80% of the 'opinions' in this place.

[roy7]

Wait Wait Wait.

MtGox tells me the current price is $124.

Where is everyone getting $55 from?

Is MTGox actually down and posting a false price to placate anyone not in the know?

That was the last price before they halted trading.

[Operatr]

Bitcoin is a giant ponzi scheme and the only winners are the ones that get out first. After that, it crashes.

Oh yeah? What are big banks doing then? Go spread your filth elsewhere

[manfred]

gox now resuming at 11 JST

whatever time that fucking is

Japan Standard Time